Friday, April 6 Keeneland Picks
Race 1
First race of the year brings two year olds at a four and a half furlong distance for 50K. I love Nownownow in this race because of the name. I don’t have a past performances program in front of me, but he is trained by Biacone and has Leparoux aboard. Not much else to tell you about this race. Asmussen gets his first race at Keeneland with Garrett Gomez aboard the Kentucky colt Hargill.
Selections: 9-10-4-8
Race 2
I love the Argentine bred Don Tiger in this race with Mena aboard. Kirby is shipping this horse down from Hawthorne where he put in a poor performance at 1 1/16 mile. Last time Mena was aboard at Turfway Park and led the horse to a confident three length victory. Kirby has shipped this horse everywhere and he continues to win even at seven years old, and he loves any distance including that 2 1/16 miles journey at Mountaineer in December. I don’t really have a second selection as no one impresses me. So Don Tiger will be my single. I guess you cannot discount Guidry on One Eyed Joker though being the 6/5 M/L favorite.
Selections: 5-2-1-7
Race 3
This one is very difficult race to handicap here. There are a bunch of horses that have shown signs of excellence and even impressive signs on the polytrack. I am going to go with the long shot and Leparoux in Rendon Street. I tend to like horses that have shown they can run on the polytrack and Rendon Street’s impressive 8 ½ length victory at Turfway Park did it for me. It was only against maiden claimers at 30K, but this horse showed a very impressive four wide move to win with Leparoux aboard. The one thing that scares be a lot is the horse has done nothing at Keeneland in four starts. Speckert is shipping the horse from the Fairgrounds and I’m hoping for a nice price. My second selection is the M/L favorite at 3/1 Gold Attraction. He has never race on the polytrack but broke his maiden at Gulfstream at this same seven furlong distance. Gets the services of Castellano and should be coming on strong late. The other horse that scares me is the Rebecca Maker choice heading up from the Fairgrounds as well, Stars of the Sea. The four year old does get the services of Garrett Gomez but has shown nothing on the polytrack. Maker is upping him to seven furlongs from 5 ½ in Louisiana. I’m not a huge fan of Maker on the polytrack but maybe this horse will fire it up.
Selections: 3-4-2-8
Race 4
Just looking at the program you have Prado first mount on the turf, Gomez and Dale Romans, and Cornelio Velasquez and Mott. Tough to look past those three horses just because of the jockey’s and trainers. This is a 54K allowance non-winners other then maiden or claiming at 1 1/16 mile on the turf. The horse to beat is Gomez and on Yate’s Black Cat. In his last two races he has run against some great fields including losing to Showing Up by six lengths in the Colonial Turf Cup. The horse is dropping back to 1 1/16 mile from 1 ¼ mile back in July ’06. That is the one thing that scares me, the eight month layoff. Romans does do well with horses coming off layoffs with a 19% clip and with Gomez aboard I should not be scared. My second selection is a long shot in More Daylight. He gets one of my favorite riders aboard in Shaun Bridgmohan. This horse shows early speed and is one of few to do it in the race, the other two being Independent George and Smart Sherif. This horse came in sixth in his last race leading till the stretch run. He stays at the same distance and has shown some nice works leading up to this race. I just have a hunch about this one. Third selection is Prado on Independent George. If Smart Sherif doesn’t go out to the lead Prado could steal this race. As many of the horses in this race he is coming off a big layoff and his last race was at Del Mar. I think Prado could steal this one though.
Selections: 5-10-1-8
Race 5
No horse really comes out to me and screams “money in the bank.” So I am going with some price plays in this race. The favorite Time Squared is a well bred horse out of Fusaichi Pegasus and gets the services of Julian Leparoux. But I don’t understand why Biacone sent him in GIII Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. Why do trainers send out horses that have not broken their maiden into either allowance races or stakes races? Have your pony win then send him to bigger races! Time Squared finished dead last and I was glad. Well on to my picks. I’m stuck between Current Case and Include Us ridden by Rafael Bejarano and Edgar Prado respectively. I’m going to lead towards Current Case because he is not coming off a four month layoff. Both have raced at this distance and finished in respectable positions and both hace raced on the polytrack. Current Case came in eighth in his last on the turf at Gulfstream but was only three lengths off the winner. Include Us is shipping from Woodbine where he is familiar with the polytrack and is also going down to a 50K purse. Just a small interesting tidbit on this race for you, Fernando Jara and Kiaran McLaughlin reunite for the first time since Invasor won in Dubai. This will be Jara’s first race in the states since Dubai and he gets Samhoon, a 1.4 million dollar purchase in the 2005 September Keeneland sales. The horse has done nothing at Gulfstream twice and I don’t expect him to do anything today.
Selections: 6-12-2-10
Race 6
A nice eight horse field in the sixth, an 62K allowance, optional claimer, even though none will be claimed. There are some interesting options in this race and I will start with the ever so disappointing Vague. This filly was taken by Patrick Biacone from Doug O’Neil after a four races in the states after coming from Great Britain. She was ever so impressive a year ago in the UAE 1000 Guineas winning by five lengths. After that he went to Great Britain and did nothing on the turf for one race where he was then shipped to New York for a GI 1 ¼ route on the dirt where he went off at 8-1. He subsequently lost by 53 lengths but Desormeaux pulled him up at the half way mark. Since he has run three races on dirt and turf, has been a low price and high price, but has always done nothing. Biacone will try to right this filly by bringing here to six furlongs and pushing her to the polytrack. She did have a sharp :47 workout on March 30. The other intriguing option is the Argentine filly Solrana. Stanley Hough picked this filly up after going 3-0 in Argentina and winning one stakes race, all at five furlongs. Castellano gets the mount and Solrana does get Lasix added. She hasn’t run in four months but we will see how she does. To tell you the truth I have no clue where I am going in this race. If you are playing the Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 6 immediately hit the “All” option for this race unless you have some super inside information. Like Solrana is the next Invasor except sprinting. I’m going to go with Solrana at the right price. If she gets way overbet then I’ll bet jockeys or just numbers.
Selections: 5-4-1-2
Race 7
Four fillies in this race are coming off maiden wins and four are also coming off layoffs. The two fillies that are coming in off the best races are Awesome Ashley and Her Majesty out of the GI Frizette and GI Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies respectively. Awesome Ashley ran a decent Frizette in what could be one of the slowest ever at 1:40 for a mile. Her Majesty got caught up in traffic in the BC Juvenile Fillies and Leparoux held her back. She did go off at 8-1, had a terrible 10 post that day, and she is cutting back to seven furlongs so she will improve. I’m going to go with Frank Brothers in this race and Tessa Blue. Gets the outside post where she can flash some speed and hopefully get a clean trip. She decisively broke her maiden on February 18 at Gulfstream winning by eight lengths. Rene Douglas gets the mount and should steer this filly clear of traffic. The other horse that intrigues me is Mostbeautifulstorm and Edgar Prado. She broke her maiden last fall here at Keeneland and then went to Churchill for the GIII Pocahontas and got a terrible start and was never a factor. She has had one start this year and finished a far back fourth in an allowance at Gulfstream. I think she will rev it back up today on the polytrack.
Selections: 12-7-2-6
Race 8
The eighth has a very classy group of horses. The name in this race is Funny CideSpellbinder. I’m hoping he can get out to the lead and take this wire to wire but it is going to be tough as there is some other speed in this race to, and there is a lot of class. But what is most to like about this horse is he is giving five pounds! Should be nice in a race with this much talent. He has had some nice works at Keeneland including a 1:01 five furlong work on March 10. Seems prepared however new trainer Juan Ruvalcaba does not have the greatest layoff record. My second selection will be Robby Albarado on Student Council. He has won twice and one place in three races so far this year all with Albarado. In his last at Oaklawn Park in a GIII he was a game second to Magna Graduate over this distance. Seems ready for this race and if he gets a decent pace could he could come on from the back and steal it and nice odds. however he will be beaten. Mark it down. By who? Well, that is a great question. I am going to go with the speedy shipper
Selections: 8-9-3-4
Race 9 Central Bank Transylvania Stakes
Here is the first stakes race of the year at Keeneland, the Central Bank Transylvania GIII, a mile on the green stuff. This is a very diverse field with a second time starter, a shipper, three horses that have never run on the turf, and one horse that has never won. Let me tell Mr. Carl Potts, your colt is M/L 50-1 shot. He has never won. He has never been close to winning coming in third twice by three lengths and ten lengths. He has not even run on the turf ever. Why run him in this race? Plus you are about to run this three year old three times in 35 days, pretty much completely running him into the ground. Why do this? He will come in last when you could have run him in a nice MSW for about 25K and won gotten some money and satisfaction from him. Instead you are an idiot and run him in stakes. Come on, you are better then this. By the way the horses name is Lure My Daisy. It’s going to be very hard to beat the 8/5 M/L favorite Sedgefield. He is an always improving colt with Bejarano aboard. He is easily the most impressive colt on paper in this field so he will be my pick. I am going to look at the shipper from Great Britain too though. Codeword gets the services of Javier Castellano and is going a mile for the first time in his life. He gets Lasix today and may like the extra furlong and versus a semi-weak field I think he could really show something that is if he enjoys the states.
Selections: 9-3-7-4
Race 10
The last today is a 50K Maiden at 1 1/16 mile. I don’t have much to say about this race. There are a bunch of lightly raced horses. I am going to go with the favorite and Prado in this race, True Competitor. He has run four races in his life and has always finished in the money. He can run from behind or on the pace. Some nice sharp workouts prior to today and should be game for breakings his maiden this afternoon. My second selection is the Storming Maine. Douglas picks up this three year old colt again and races for the first time on the polytrack. Trainer David Cassen does well moving horses from the turf and Storming Maine shouldn’t disappoint. I expect an appearance in the money.
Selections: 7-3-8-12
Betting Plays:
Early Daily Double: R1- 9,10
R2-2,5 CHALK!!!
Total $2 ticket = $8
Race Two Pick Four: R2- 2,5
R3- 3,4
R4- 5,10,1
R5- 6,12,2
Total $1 Ticket = $36
Race Four Pick Three: R4- 5
R5- 6,12,2
R6- All
Total $1 Ticket = $24
Race Five Pick Six: R5- 6,12,2
R6- 5,4 (Not many people can afford the all button on a Pick Six)
R7- 12,7,2
R8- 8,9,3
R9- 9
R10- 7,3
Total $1 Ticket = $108 (I know that is tough to afford itself)
Race Seven Pick Four: R7- 12,7,2,6
R8- 8,9,3
R9- 9
R10- 7,3,8,12
Total $1 Ticket = $48
Best Bet: Race 2- Don Tiger (5)
Price Play: Race 3- Rendon Street (3)
I will throw some trifecta wheels and some exactors out live during the races. I will probably do a little live bloggin around the 5th or 6th race, we will see. Good luck and may the wire be with you.
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