Keeneland 4.18 Picks

Couple of races to look at and a couple tickets to play.

Race 3- Six Furlongs Optional Claimer 80K N2X for 3 Year Olds

The third leads us to a small six horse field which I find very difficult to find a winner. I am leaning away from the 8/5 morning line favorite Weather Warning because he does not deserve an 8/5 price. My decision then becomes between Quietly Mine and Native Ruler. Both are coming off layoffs of over four months, returning from GIII stakes races, and cutting back distances from over a mile to six furlongs. I am going to go with Quietly Mine because of the jockey/trainer connection of Garrett Gomez and Christophe Clement. He is one for one at Keeneland winning a 52K allowance last fall going six furlongs. Native Ruler gets Cornelio Velasquez on board and posted the best speed figures at a sprint distance between his foes. The three year old is also working out well in advanced for this sprint.

Selections: 2-4-3-6

Race 5- Six Furlongs Maiden 50K for 3 Year Old Fillies

This is a very difficult race to handicap. Out of 12 fillies only three have raced before and usually in maidens I like horses that have seen the track before. Therefore I am going with Simply Divine. Kent Desormeaux rides the filly today. She has raced twice, once on the dirt and once on the polytrack, finishing second and third respectively. The only thing that frightens me about her is she raced on the lead in both races and as many Keeneland fans know speed horses do TERRIBLE on the lead at Keeneland. My second choice is Cute Cakes a filly out of Lemon Drop Kid and Cattitude who gets the always reliable Edgar Prado aboard and has trained very well in advanced by Neil Howard. It’s hard to look past the Biacone and Leparoux combination of Im Classic Quality a $220K filly purchased from the Keeneland fall sale in 2004. She is out of Elusive Quality and Swearingen.

Selections: 5-7-4-8

Race 6- Six and One Half Furlongs Allowance 58K N2X for 4 Year Olds and Upward

No one stands out in this race at all. I’m going with a semi long shot in Forest Phantom who has 8/1 morning line odds. James Theriot gets the ride and Thomas Amoss trains the four year old gelding. Forest Phantom is a nice closer that loves the sprint and performed strong in his first try over the polytrack on April 7 at Keeneland finishing second by a nose in this same race. He cuts it back from seven furlongs today and should get a good ride from the second post position. My second selection is a lightly raced four year old (three races lifetime) out of Cat Thief and Five Star Night, Five Star Thief. The gelding is coming off a seven month layoff and has never tried the polytrack but raced really well in New York last summer winning OC 75K at Belmont. One of my favorite riders Rafael Bejarano gets the mount and that is always a good thing. It’s tough to look away from a horse that has won two of two and both over the artificial surface at Turfway Park in March and that is Broad Spectrum. This gelding could sneak into the picture.

Selections: 2-4-3-11

Race 7- One Mile and a Sixteenth (Turf) Allowance 62K N3X for 4 Year Olds and Upward

It’s hard to look away from the morning line favorite in this one, Outperformance. Trainer Richard Violette gives reliable rider Javier Castellano the mount. In the colts last race at Churchill Downs fall meet he raced in a 150K stakes and finished fourth by a half length, this despite being steadied three times around the 1/16 pole. He was also the prohibitive favorite in that race. Graham Motion trains Salinja my second selection and is ridden by John Velazquez. This five year old raced at Great Britain before being shipped to Gulfstream in February. He finished a close second and third in two allowance races in the meet. The gelding out of Boundary and Lasha taken a liking to the firmer American turf and should perform well today. If the price is right I may take this horse over Outperformance. One of Outperformances foes in the 150K stakes who actually finished ahead of him is my third selection. Kingship a four year old colt gets Robby Albarado aboard and only finished third by a neck in that race however getting a much better trip then Outperformance. He comes in at 7/2 and love the mile and a sixteenth distance.

Selections: 2-3-6-8

Race 8- Doubledogdare GIII Stakes

Let me first say this, favorites have done absolutely awful in graded stakes this spring at Keeneland. Just look at last Saturday with Street Sense, Midnight Lute, and Showing Up. Only Street Sense finished in the money. But like my locks I’m sticking to my guns and going with who should be the prohibitive favorite come post time the five year old mare Asi Siempre. She finished second in the Breeders Cup Distaff and won the Spinster GI last fall at Keeneland. She is trained by the Biacone and gets Gomez the mount, despite Leparoux being the usual jockey. He moves Pyramid Love. There is not much to say about Asi Siempre besides she is easily the best and classiest filly or mare in this field. Pyramid Love is my second selection partially because Leparoux seems to have picked this four year old filly over Asi Siempre. I am not sure though because Biacone trains both and might have asked. Pyramid Love has taken a loving to the polytrack at Keeneland and is two for two over it at this distance. She is coming off a layoff from last October at Keeneland but has solid works coming into this graded affair. At the right price I may play Pyramid Love over Asi Siempre, which if my sense tell me I could get a nice price compared to the favorite.

Selections: 5-1-7-3

Race 9- Allowance 54K N1X for Fillies & Mares 4 Years Old and Upward

Just another very difficult race to handicap on the Keeneland card to end the day. I’m intrigued by two horses in this race, Polysheba and Lordly. Polysheba is a Great Britain bred filly who raced in France last year before shipping to the Fairground this February. She has always raced on the turf and gets the great Corey Nakatani. The four year old is trained by Michael Stidham and may improve with blinkers today. As for the polytrack I always like turf to polytrack racers and for some reason I especially like European shippers, no reason, just my feelings. Lordly is a lightly raced four year old filly out of Victory Gallop and Lordy Lordy. The connections seem to want her to be a good turf horse racing her four times on the turf. In her other two appearances which were on Keeneland’s polytrack she came in first to break her maiden as a 30-1 long shot and came in third in her next race which was originally scheduled for the turf. Her speed numbers are extremely better on the polytrack so maybe trainer Philip Oliver has figured out to run her on the polytrack. Rafael Bejarano gets the mount and that is why she is going to be my number one selection. Ken McPeek brings in My Own Story from Gulfstream who has raced eight of her nine races on the turf. She seems to like the long distance finishing a strong fourth in her last going a mile and a half. She also posed her best speed figure in her last going the long distance so she may improve for a great finish.

Selections: 5-1-9-8

Lets try a pick six today:

Race Four Pick Six Ticket R4: 1,6

R5: 5

R6: 2,4

R7: 2,3

R8: 5

R9: 1,5,9

Total $1 Ticket = $36 (CHEAP!!!)

Race Five Pick Three Ticket R5: All

R6: 2,4

R7: 2,3

Total $1 Ticket = $48 (Expensive)

Race Six Pick Four Ticket R6: 2,4

R7: 2,3,6

R8: 1,5

R9: 5,8,9

Total $1 Ticket = $36

Race Seven Pick Three Ticket R7: 2,3,6

R8: 5

R9: All

Total $1 Ticket = $33