4/11/2007

Keeneland 4.11 Preview


Before I get to my selections four new jockeys make their way to Keeneland for this short spring meet: Calvin Borel, Corey Nakatani (pictured), John Velazquez, and Mark Guidry.

Feast on the picks.

Race 4

In the fourth we have an allowance of 54K and non-winners of anything other than maiden or claiming for fillies three years of age. This is an intriguing race to me with a lot of options. I’m leaning towards Quiet Action who gets the services of Julien Leparoux. This filly is out of Forest Wildcat and is shipping from the fall meet at Woodbine where he performed admirably on the turf. She broke her maiden on the turf at six furlongs in 1:11 and then was race in a mile GIII stakes where he came in second by ¾ of a length. Then trainer Mark Casse moved her to the polytrack for two stakes and she came in second and a far back sixth. She has only one official workout since at five furlongs but Casse knows what he is doing when returning horses from layoffs winning at an 18% clip. My second selection is Whisper To Me with Cornelio Velasquez. He’s shipping from the Fairgrounds where he couldn’t get that first win outside her maiden victory. She is out of my favorite Kentucky Derby winner and maybe favorite horse of all time in Thunder Gulch and is a deep closer that has a strong closing kick. In her last she came from 16 lengths back to finish third by 3 lengths. My third selection is Kenneth McPeek’s entry of Nola Star who is moving to the turf for the first time who is most recognized for being 4-1 last summer in the Arlington Breeder’s Cup Classic but finished fifth.

Selections: 5-1-8-3

Race 5

The fifth brings us more girls going for their maiden for 50k. I’m going to go with the 10-1 M/L filly who has already finished first in a race but was placed back to third due to “drifting in” New York Dixie. She won on March 15 at the Fairgrounds and has since posted some nice workouts at Keeneland. If she can correlate her race to the polytrack and go off anywhere near 10/1 I love this filly. By the way she is a deep closer, which kind of scares me on the polytrack but oh well and Albarado gets the mount. It’s tough to not look at Pletcher’s entry Sarah’s Prize who gets John Velazquez aboard. In the last two races the she has come in second by less then a length against what seems to be stronger company and one of those races was at Keeneland last fall. My last selection is the Biacone and Leparoux combination on Sun Sheika. She has race twice on the polytrack at Turf Paradise against lesser foes but with Leparoux aboard. If this filly can get out to an easy lead she may stick around to be somewhere in the money.

Selections: 7-4-9-10

Race 8- Vinery Madison GII

The GII event is for fillies and mares at seven furlongs for 200K. At 9/2 I think you are getting a great price on Mary Delaney. You are also getting one of the best jockeys in the US in Edgar Prado. This filly race in Great Britain early last year and showed she can have success in the states late last year as well. She ahs posted the best speed figures and has run great on the polytrack. I also think she can get a easy lead versus these competitors today. If she is anywhere over 2-1, I love her and especially as a single play. My second selection is the four year old filly right outside Mary Delaney, Ginger Punch. Rafael Bejarno gets the services today. She has only raced six times in her life and is two for three from seven furlongs, both wins being by over six lengths which is most impressive and both times Bejarano was aboard. She is coming off a long layoff and I am not a fan of horses off layoffs but Frankel does hit at a 24% clip. So you never know.

Selections: 5-6-4-2

Race Four Pick Three: R4: 1,5

R5: 4,7,10

R6: 2,3

Total $1 Ticket Amount: $12

Race Seven Pick Three: R7: All

R8: 5

R9: 1,9,11

Total $1 Ticket Amount: $27


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