Keeneland 4.21 Picks

Here are my selections for Keeneland on Lexington Stakes day. It is suppose to be a beautiful day with a high of 73 and bright sunshine. I cannot wait, summer is COMING!!!!

Race 1 Starter Allowance 26K Mile and Three Sixteenths

Small five horse field for the first at Keeneland today. I’m going with the biggest long shot on the program in Handsome Fee. She ran six races on the polytrack at Turfway Park’s winter meet and either fired or didn’t finishing in the top three thrice times and coming in sixth or worse thrice times. I think this gelding may fire today and may take home a good price. This is clearly a price play for me though. The most impressive horse on the board to me is War Tracer. Garrett Gomez is aboard and this five year old won his last three races of the fall meet including a starter allowance at Keeneland in October. I don’t like seeing these mediocre type horses coming off long layoffs but considering his recent form War Tracer has every bit of a chance to take this easy field.

Selections: 2-3-1-6

Race 2 Maiden 50K Two Year Olds Four and One Half Furlongs

Two of the fillies entered in this race have already raced once in this Keeneland spring meet but I am steering clear of them. As always this is a race where you have to watch the board as the bettors have done fairly well with two year olds this meet. I’m going with Spin Move. Mark Casse trains and Robby Albarado gets the mount. Casse usually does a decent job with first time starters and the dam Body Moves already has one winner. My second selection is the Pletcher-Gomez combination with Brooke’s Valentine. This is a very well bred filly out of Fusaichi Pegasus and Jena Jena.

Selections: 1-5-4-2

Race 3 Claiming 25K Six Furlongs

No PP for this one so I am just going off the entries.

Selections: 8-3-1-2

Race 4 Allowance 58K Mile and an Eighth

There is no attractive horse in this race. I usually like horses that have run on the polytrack before but no one has. None of these horses are also any good on the turf so this race is an absolute crap shoot. Deputy Indy is the best bred horse and is dropping to a little easier race here. It’s always nice to see Leparoux taking the mount and the five year old is always there at the end. Maybe he can win this one. Barbican was a 2/1 favorite in his last race on April 7 at Keeneland and just got a terrible start. He has posted the best speed figures out of any horses in this race but has never run over a mile. If he has the stamina this could be the horse to beat. He also gets Gomez aboard.

Selections: 4-3-1-7

Race 5 Allowance 66K Mile and a Sixteenth (Turf)

Edgar Prado gets his first mount today and takes the class of the race with him in this pricey allowance affair. Prado gets Cosmonaut today and is coming off a four month layoff and a string of five grade one events where he finished fourth or fifth in every event. It’s going to be incredibly hard to beat this five year old and it’s tough to look away from him on the program. If there is one to look at that may go off at a decent price it is the Chilean bred Rio Mistico. Barclay Tagg traings this four year old colt that finished off last year going four for four in Chile in July. He had a strong five furlong workout a week ago and gets Cornelio Velasquez on board for a strong ride. The eight month layoff is scary and first time lasix is a bit scary too, but at the right price I will be playing Rio Mistico. Another intriguing horse in this race is Lord Carmen who gets the always reliable turf jockey Mark Guidry. Frank Kirby enter this six year old off a five month lay off but this horse loves when Guidry is aboard and can race from a stalking position or way off the pace. I would love to see this horse eat up a dead field

Selections: 5-1-3-7

Race 6 Maiden 50K Mile and an Eighth

It is tough to not look at Bill Mott and Edgar Prado who rides Counselled. An expensive three year old colt that came in second in his second race ever at Gulfstream going this distance on the turf. If he runs his best race he should easily beat this field. A horse Counselled beat in his last also in entered in this race, Chriscodey. That race was his first start and like most first starters he just didn’t fire. He raced in early April over this same polytrack but in the snow. I remember that day distinctly because you couldn’t see the race. The PP has the same problem only having his post position and where he finished. He still posted a nice speed figure and he gets blinkers today so I love this horse at the right price to win. I don’t like Kent Desormeaux much but maybe he can drive this colt to victory. Always watch out for the Pletcher-Gomez combo who put out Hawaii Calls. He is a second time starter and has trained beautifully coming into this race. If he runs wells it could be a duel between him and Counselled.

Selections: 8-4-9-2

Race 7 Giants Causeway 100K Stakes Five and a Half Furlongs (Turf)

This is the best betting race of the day with 12 fillies and mares entered on a turf sprint race. This is the third time I have said it in my selections but Pletcher-Gomez throw out another four year old filly in Forest Code. She came in second in her last 60K stakes at Santa Anita. Pletcher usually does fairly well with shippers and is obviously the best trainer at stakes races in this era. Haddie Be Good lost by only a half length in her last and has won a turf sprint stakes before at the Meadowlands. If she gets a decent pace to run after Haddie Be Good and Javier Castellano could challenge for a win. South Necking shipped from Argentina in the summer and won a nice allowance race at Bay Meadows in March by two lengths. She has only raced twice on the turf in Argentina but didn’t race poorly. Pletcher trains this four year old filly so obviously he knows what he is doing but this is a precarious position considering on nice this filly has looked on the dirt in the US.

Selections: 11-9-6-7

Race 8 Allowance 54K Seven Furlongs

No PP = going solely off entry program.

Selections: 3-9-5-8

Race 9 Coolmore Lexington GII Stakes Mile and a Sixteenth

In this biggest stakes of the day and the last chance t get into the Kentucky Derby the Lexington is wide open this year. I’m looking back at the Bluegrass from last week and going with the same angle I took Dominican last week. Joe Got Even has taken a real liking to the polytrack and has finished in the money in all fives races over the polytrack. In his last he lost to Hard Spun and Sedgefield at Turfway Park in the Lane’s End GII Stakes. If this horse can improve even a little on that effort he could take down this much easier field. He also had a bit of a interesting trip in the Lane’s End that probably cost him some ground. Trainer Patrick Biacone who has been hot recently ships Belgravia from the Left Coast for the Lexington and gets Leparoux aboard. He was the favorite in the Hollywood Futurity before losing to the likes of Stormello and Liquidity. He also had a terrible trip in his race but does like the polytrack. My intriguing option of the race is Boogiemanball. He is coming off a long layoff for Niall O’Callaghan and seemed to like the polytrack at Woodbine. He has only raced twice both under six furlongs so a mile and a sixteenth might be much but I just feel this horse may be able to run it.

Selections: 4-8-2-7

Race 10 Maiden 50K Mile and an Eighth

Another wide open maiden at Keeneland. I am leaning towards to hard luck colt that just can’t seem to break his maiden Storming Marine. He seems to like the polytrack at Keeneland racing twice very gamely. He also seems to be rounding into shape and comes to my favorite day in the Keeneland meet so far the snow day. Kettle Hill comes out of the same race as Storming Marine and finished second in it. He also loves the polytrack and likes coming from the back which seems to be a good thing this spring at Keeneland. Don’t Forget Mama is running for the hot McPeek barn and should improve in his second career start.

Selections: 2-8-3-4