Keeneland 4.25 Picks

I did well with my lock yesterday here's hoping the luck carries over to the track. Here are my picks for Keeneland from races 4 on.

Race 4- Claiming 40,000 Five and One Half Furlongs

The fourth brings us a small claimer with no real clear cut favorite. My first selection is Bernie White Shoes who is trained by Patrick Biacone and Julien Leparoux rides. He went off as the favorite in his last race in mid April at Keeneland coming off a six month layoff and just didn’t fire at six and one half furlongs. That was an allowance so he is dropping in class and the competition in this race looks much easier for him. Warrior Within is coming off a short three month layoff from Turfway’s winter meet and has seemed to taken a liking to the polytrack. He does meet much easier foes this time out and should like the cut back in distance from a mile in his last. He also has some pretty solid works as of late. My third and fourth selections are the two Greg Foley entries 1 and 1A. It seems like a crime to get both Prado and Gomez on one ticket. I suspect the one entry to be to the favorite but if they are close to 5/1 I may be putting a ticket on them.

Selections: 2-3-1A-1

Race 5- Allowance 54K 1X One Mile on the Turf

With an 80% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow in Lexington I suspect this may get taken off the turf. If that happens my selections could change. The other factor is the morning line favorite is the AE 12 Niagara Causeway. If he runs I suspect him to be a big favorite. But that is very open in the air. Besides that my number one selection is the Thomas Amoss entry Kelvington. The always reliable Robby Albarado gets the ride. I know he has not looked good at the allowance ranks but has performed well versus claimers. However I feel this five year old gelding is hitting stride now coming from the Fairgrounds and if this stays on the turf I really like this horse at a good price. He also has put up very nice speed figures compared to the rest of the field. Fongtastic is shipping from the Fairgrounds where he ran against similar allowance company. This gelding always seems to be there at the end but can’t win. Maybe today is his day.

Selections: 1-4-11-7

Main Track Selections: 8-7-5-9

Race 6- Maiden 50K Seven Furlongs

This is a wide open maiden affair and I am going to look for some price here. It’s A Danzig is trained by Rebecca Maker and Larry Melancon gets the mount. In two career races he has finished second twice on the dirt and turf in Illinois. He has had two nice bullet works of 1:13 going six furlongs and :58 going five furlongs. He is coming off a seven month layoff which is always scary but maybe Maker has something with this horse. I know I am hoping she has something. My second selection will probably go off as the favorite, Royal War Academy. Royal War Academy has already race ten times and has finished in the money five of ten times. He just can’t seem to get the right trip to break his maiden. He raced in the Transylvania GIII Stakes a couple weeks ago at Keeneland and didn’t perform that poorly. If he gets the right trip from Albarado this Jaime Sanders trained colt should finally break his maiden, finally.

Selections: 6-11-12-4

Race 7- Allowance 54K n2L About Seven Furlongs

In Quasicobra’s second career start he handily beat a 50K maiden field at Keeneland earlier this month. This was coming off an eight month. Biacone trains Quasicobra and Leparoux gets the ride. He ran this same seven furlongs in an easy 1:25 and I expect him to romp the field today. I will be using him as my single in the late pick four and late pick three. The only thing that scares me is rain and I don’t know why I am scared. I don’t think I need to talk about my other selections but I probably should do some triactors and exactors for Canadian fans. Firerock Base broke his maiden his second time out on this same Keeneland course going seven furlongs. He goes the extra 50 or so yards today and should perform well on the same track. Torini gets Edgar Prado and that is always a good reason to use a horse in exotics. By the way this meet Prado is getting in the money at an above 50% clip.

Selections: 6-5-12-10

Race 8- Bewitch Stakes GIII Mile and One Half on the Turf

I will be interested to see if they keep this race on the turf. I would be surprised if they take it off but we will only see. With that I will already assume the track is soft to yielding so that will factor in my selections. But you know what nothing should matter in this race because Pletcher plus Velazquez plus a graded stakes equals victory, especially when their horse is by far the best in the field. This five year old mare is already one for two in graded stakes this year and has shown that he can run in the slop incase this race gets taken off the turf. Single me up here and by the way this late pick three and pick four could be cheap with a very small payoff.

Selections: 7-5- WAY BACK 1-3

Main Track Selections: 7-3-4-5

Race 9- Claiming 30K n2L Mile and One Sixteenth

Fairly wide open closing race to close Keeneland out today. Bird Charm is dropping down to a 50K open claimer where he performed decently. He hasn’t ever done great at this distance but has run well, if that makes any sense at all. Alonso Quinonez gets the ride and is still looking for his first win this spring at Keeneland and hopefully he can get on here. Talent Scout gets Rafael Bejarano aboard and runs on the polytrack for only the second time in his career and in his one start he finished two lengths off the pace versus allowance company. This looks to be a much easier field and the switch from turf to polytrack may do this four year old colt well. I really don’t like much any other horse in this race so I can’t tell you much anything else. One interesting horse to watch is Rove who is ridden by Miguel Mena and who broke his maiden in March at Turfway in his twelfth career start by get this 20 lengths. Yes 20 lengths. Maybe he was racing donkeys, I don’t know.

Selections: 11-7-8-9

Race Four Pick 6- R4: 1,2,3

R5: 1,4,11 (Scratches may change this)

R6: 6,11,12

R7: 6

R8: 7

R9: 7,11

Total $1 Pick Six Ticket: $54 (Expect to change with scratches)

Race Six Pick 4: R6: All

R7: 6

R8: 7

R9: 7,11

Total $1 Pick Four Ticket: $24

Race Seven Pick 3: R7: 5,6

R8: 7

R9: All

Total $1 Pick Three Ticket: $24