Friday Night Lock

After an awesome Thursday night I am going to stick with one lock tonight. I will be taking the Bulls +5.5. The Heat just do not have it this year and I don't know if they will get it back in this series. The Bulls have so much energy and are just much deeper and stronger all around. Look for the Bulls to cover the 5.5 and go up 3-0 in the series.

Lock Record: 8-5

BTW- Sorry for not cluing you in on Keeneland's 9th race today the Elkhorn Stakes. I actually hit the try and exacta with the 8-4-2. I took Jazil out of the race and boxed four horses for the tri and exactor and took home both. It was a great day for me at the tracks, well not really besides that race but I am sorry I did not clue you guys in. I know the first pick of the year and I don't post it. The $2 exacta paid $126 and the $1 tri ticket I had paid $968. I will have a little more money to waste on the Derby next weekend which is always good and I will be getting the De La Hoya vs Mayweather fight too! Oh and I am also alive in the late pick three, go figure.

Couple Housekeeping Notes for the Next Few Days

A nice night last night in the NBA so that is always good. Even my hearty pick won and that does not usually happen. today there will be no finale Keeneland picks, sorry between time and not having PP's I won't be able to get it done. It was a semi rough spring at Keeneland for me but I actually didn't do as badly as I thought. It's just my top selections weren't nearly as good as my second and third selections. I tend to go with the sexy pick more then the favorite pick so oh well. Do expect in the upcoming days though select Churchill Downs selections and handicapping blogs. I will be back tonight with some locks so stay tuned.

And in the upcoming week before May 5th (Derby Day) I will preview every horse in the field when the field is announced, which I believe is Wednesday. Then I will have a full rundown of the Derby and Oaks and probably any other race that will be on ESPN.

Thursday Night Lock

I didn't do great today at the track, decent early but not great late. A lot of bombs won and some favorites. Tonight my fortunes will change. I will give you two locks tonight since moving to a awesome 5-5, I will be looking to go to 7-5. My first lock is the Utah Jazz -4.5 versus the Rockets. The Jazz always seem to do well at home and Tony Kornheiser loved them on PTI and his radio show today so since he is the all knowing NBA analyst I will go with him.

My second lock isn't really a lock more of just a joy play, Kobe Bryant +4.5 versus Phoenix. It should be a great game especially if the Lakers come out with any pizazz. And it will be also great to see good ole' Jack.

So to recap Kobe +4.5 and Utah -4.5 By the way I'm just going to go all out and have three locks, why not. Pistons -2. The Magic are reeling and the Pistons want this a clean bloodless affair.

So finally:

• Kobe +4.5 (TNT Late)
  
• Utah -4.5 (NBATV)
  
• Pistons -2 (TNT Early)
  

Keeneland 4.26 Picks

After a terrible day yesterday where bombs won left and right maybe we can turn it around today and find some nice prices this afternoon at a dreary Keeneland. Here are races one through four and I will be posting races five through nine later.

Race 1- Maiden 50K Four and One Half Furlongs for Two Year Olds

This is a pretty sharp field for maiden two year olds. I bet Witness Protection last time out on April 15 where he missed by a half length. He ran the four and one half furlongs in a nice 51 seconds flat. I think is second time out should do him very well. With trainer Eric Reed giving Rafael Bejarano the mount again expect this two year old colt to win in his second lifetime start. There are a couple other intriguing plays both first time starters and second time starters and another horse I bet on before. Nownownow I also bet on his debut for the Biacone barn on April 6. He ran second in his debut as well and lost by a length. I do like to see this horse had one workout between starts so he seems ready. Robby Albarado rides first time starter Live Action for trainer Ronny Werner and we are going to have to watch the board with this one to see if he gets any live action because he has posted two great works prior to this debut race.

Selections: 9-8-1-7

Race 2- Claiming 25K Mile and One Eighth

No PP for this one, only race where I don’t have PP’s so that is good.

Selections: 1-8-6-2

Race 3- Maiden 50K Seven Furlongs

The third brings us an interesting field of three year old fillies looking for their first win. Pure Silk is a well bred filly out of Pure Prize. She ran once in March at Fairgrounds in the slop and finished fifth. Trainer Steve Asmussen brings the filly to the polytrack looking to improve in her second start and Asmussen is usually strong with second time starters. Garret Gomez takes the reigns and hopefully will steer this filly to victory. The hot barn of Ken McPeek brings out a second time starter also in Ms. Sabbatical. She ran eighth in her debut last fall at Keeneland. She has shown nice works coming into this race and may sneak up on the field at a decent price. First time starter Tuckahoe Road has shown great works for the Christophe Clement barn and gets a nice 11 post for the seven furlong chute race. Corey Nakatani rides and the only worry is that the sire Quiet American is only 6% with first time starters, so I guess that is not good.

Selections: 8-7-11-6

Race 4- Allowance 54K n1x Mile and One Eighth on the Turf

First race on the turf today and it will be interesting to see if the weather cooperates. Keeneland’s website says the turf is good and there is going to be intermittent showers throughout the day. So I plan on the turf being used today and it being around soft. In for a Dime is 10/1 morning line and if she goes off anywhere around that price she will be my pick. You have to scratch off her last at Gulfstream becauses he was taken up on the first turn by Bejarano. Today she gets the services of Edgar Prado and trainer Graham Motion has worked this filly out well prior to today. Motion also has done a decent job at Keeneland this spring getting horses in the money at a better then 50% clip. Also, In for a Dime’s only win came on a good turf course so maybe the rain might do her well versus others. Communique comes off an impressive second in a GIII stakes at Gulfstream in March and drops considerably in class for this one. She seems to enjoy the mile and an eighth distance and has a strong chance to get the second win of her career here. More than a Feeling besides being great lyrics to a great song runs for Mr. Pletcher today and gets John Velazquez aboard. She broke her maiden in her second career start at Gulfstream in early April. She has shown the best speed out of any filly in this field and if she gets a decent pace to run after she could take home her second win in as many starts this afternoon.

Selections: 5-7-4-6

Race 5- Claiming 50K Six and One Half Furlongs

An interesting group of some well run horses come into the fifth race. My number one selection is Primal Peak. He’s run three times this year at the Fairgrounds on the turf versus allowance company. In all three races he ran gamely and came in first in his first race back at 4/1. Today he drops to claiming company however these are equal foes. In his last three races versus claimers he won twice once on the polytrack at Turfway. He goes back to the polytrack and stretches out to six and one half furlongs. I think I may get a nice price on this four year old colt. Nerinx is a five year old gelding trained by Michael Maker and gets Cornelio Velasquez aboard. He’s finished in the money all three times on the polytrack. Last fall he raced in this same race at Keeneland and finished second to Without a Doubt. He is shipping from Hawthorne where he won versus easier allowance company.

Selections: 6-5-10-8

Race 6- Maiden 50K Seven Furlongs

This is a complete crapshoot race so watch the board for clues. My number one selection right now is Pegasus Power who raced once last fall at Keeneland. He had a troubled start and cuts it back to seven furlongs today. Trainer John Ward sends out Edgar Prado which is always a good thing and barring another terrible trip this colt should be there in the end. Unbridled Trust is a first timer for the Asmussen stable and Garret Gomez rides. Unbridled Trust is a three year old colt out of Unbridled Song that sold for $950K in 2005. He has a lot of strong works and Unbridled Song has been putting out tremendous horses so far having four of four winners and one stakes winner. Last note on this race is what a great Yankeessweptinfour is.

Selections: 11-5-10-3

Race 7- Allowance 58K n2x Mile and One Sixteenth ***OFF THE TURF

Obi Wan Kenobi besides being a Star Wars hero is trained by Frank Brothers and my favorite turf jockey Mark Guidry rides. He’s always around come the finish line including a third place finish in the GIII Jefferson Cup last fall at Churchill. I think he may get an easy lead and if he does I think he will take this field wire to wire. Loconia trots out for the Graham Motion barn for the second time in this fall meet and cuts the distance down from a mile and an eighth where the four year old colt finished third by a neck versus similar foes. He likes the stalking style and should be placed in good position by Julien Leparoux. Tahoe Warrior is coming off a four month layoff where he ran some stakes and just never fired away on the East Coast. He has shown some good works and it’s always nice to see Garret Gomez aboard. *It just got announced this race is off the turf . I will move Tiger Woodman up and play him in my pick threes and such.*

Selections: 4-10-7-3

Race 8- Ben Ali GIII Stakes Mile and One Eighth

It’s a wide open field for the Ben Ali Stakes in Keeneland’s eighth race. Saint Stephen has mainly ran on the turf except for in Decemeber when he came off a seven month layoff and raced at Hollywood Park in a GIII stakes going a mile and an eighth where he won at 4/1 odds. He raced twice this year in Florida stakes races and finished gamely in each. I like trainer Christophe Clement switching him back to the polytrack where he has trained well and Garrett Gomez rides. At the right price Saint Stephen will be my number one play. Stream Cat is coming off a strong allowance 66K victory earlier this month where he was coming off a nine month layoff. He stretches out another sixteenth of a mile today but faces relatively open company today. Eccentric is coming off a five month layoff for Roger Attfield and Edgar Prado rides. He won the Fayette GIII Stakes last fall at Keeneland going the same distance. Has posted a sharp five furlong 1:01 bullet work on April 17 and seems poised to come of the layoff.

Selections: 11-10-2-12

Race 9- Allowance 54K n1x One Mile on the Turf

Pine Shelter returns off a three month layoff for trainer George Arnold and everyone’s favorite Rafael Bejarano rides. Last fall at Churchill he finished second on the turf going this same distance versus a similar field. With the right trip this four year old filly should be able to win his second career race. Roshani broke her maiden last time out in late March at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher. She has posted the best speed figures out of anyone in the field and should be well placed by John Velazquez. Banking on Candy is coming off a nine month layoff but has posted three fast works and may be worked too much coming into this race. She loves the mile on the turf though and may get an easy pace so she can run wire to wire.

Selections: 7-2-10-9

That is all. I will be posting tonight an NBA lock for you guys to mull over. I don't think it will be the Lakers straight up though.

Keeneland 4.25 Picks

I did well with my lock yesterday here's hoping the luck carries over to the track. Here are my picks for Keeneland from races 4 on.

Race 4- Claiming 40,000 Five and One Half Furlongs

The fourth brings us a small claimer with no real clear cut favorite. My first selection is Bernie White Shoes who is trained by Patrick Biacone and Julien Leparoux rides. He went off as the favorite in his last race in mid April at Keeneland coming off a six month layoff and just didn’t fire at six and one half furlongs. That was an allowance so he is dropping in class and the competition in this race looks much easier for him. Warrior Within is coming off a short three month layoff from Turfway’s winter meet and has seemed to taken a liking to the polytrack. He does meet much easier foes this time out and should like the cut back in distance from a mile in his last. He also has some pretty solid works as of late. My third and fourth selections are the two Greg Foley entries 1 and 1A. It seems like a crime to get both Prado and Gomez on one ticket. I suspect the one entry to be to the favorite but if they are close to 5/1 I may be putting a ticket on them.

Selections: 2-3-1A-1

Race 5- Allowance 54K 1X One Mile on the Turf

With an 80% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow in Lexington I suspect this may get taken off the turf. If that happens my selections could change. The other factor is the morning line favorite is the AE 12 Niagara Causeway. If he runs I suspect him to be a big favorite. But that is very open in the air. Besides that my number one selection is the Thomas Amoss entry Kelvington. The always reliable Robby Albarado gets the ride. I know he has not looked good at the allowance ranks but has performed well versus claimers. However I feel this five year old gelding is hitting stride now coming from the Fairgrounds and if this stays on the turf I really like this horse at a good price. He also has put up very nice speed figures compared to the rest of the field. Fongtastic is shipping from the Fairgrounds where he ran against similar allowance company. This gelding always seems to be there at the end but can’t win. Maybe today is his day.

Selections: 1-4-11-7

Main Track Selections: 8-7-5-9

Race 6- Maiden 50K Seven Furlongs

This is a wide open maiden affair and I am going to look for some price here. It’s A Danzig is trained by Rebecca Maker and Larry Melancon gets the mount. In two career races he has finished second twice on the dirt and turf in Illinois. He has had two nice bullet works of 1:13 going six furlongs and :58 going five furlongs. He is coming off a seven month layoff which is always scary but maybe Maker has something with this horse. I know I am hoping she has something. My second selection will probably go off as the favorite, Royal War Academy. Royal War Academy has already race ten times and has finished in the money five of ten times. He just can’t seem to get the right trip to break his maiden. He raced in the Transylvania GIII Stakes a couple weeks ago at Keeneland and didn’t perform that poorly. If he gets the right trip from Albarado this Jaime Sanders trained colt should finally break his maiden, finally.

Selections: 6-11-12-4

Race 7- Allowance 54K n2L About Seven Furlongs

In Quasicobra’s second career start he handily beat a 50K maiden field at Keeneland earlier this month. This was coming off an eight month. Biacone trains Quasicobra and Leparoux gets the ride. He ran this same seven furlongs in an easy 1:25 and I expect him to romp the field today. I will be using him as my single in the late pick four and late pick three. The only thing that scares me is rain and I don’t know why I am scared. I don’t think I need to talk about my other selections but I probably should do some triactors and exactors for Canadian fans. Firerock Base broke his maiden his second time out on this same Keeneland course going seven furlongs. He goes the extra 50 or so yards today and should perform well on the same track. Torini gets Edgar Prado and that is always a good reason to use a horse in exotics. By the way this meet Prado is getting in the money at an above 50% clip.

Selections: 6-5-12-10

Race 8- Bewitch Stakes GIII Mile and One Half on the Turf

I will be interested to see if they keep this race on the turf. I would be surprised if they take it off but we will only see. With that I will already assume the track is soft to yielding so that will factor in my selections. But you know what nothing should matter in this race because Pletcher plus Velazquez plus a graded stakes equals victory, especially when their horse is by far the best in the field. This five year old mare is already one for two in graded stakes this year and has shown that he can run in the slop incase this race gets taken off the turf. Single me up here and by the way this late pick three and pick four could be cheap with a very small payoff.

Selections: 7-5- WAY BACK 1-3

Main Track Selections: 7-3-4-5

Race 9- Claiming 30K n2L Mile and One Sixteenth

Fairly wide open closing race to close Keeneland out today. Bird Charm is dropping down to a 50K open claimer where he performed decently. He hasn’t ever done great at this distance but has run well, if that makes any sense at all. Alonso Quinonez gets the ride and is still looking for his first win this spring at Keeneland and hopefully he can get on here. Talent Scout gets Rafael Bejarano aboard and runs on the polytrack for only the second time in his career and in his one start he finished two lengths off the pace versus allowance company. This looks to be a much easier field and the switch from turf to polytrack may do this four year old colt well. I really don’t like much any other horse in this race so I can’t tell you much anything else. One interesting horse to watch is Rove who is ridden by Miguel Mena and who broke his maiden in March at Turfway in his twelfth career start by get this 20 lengths. Yes 20 lengths. Maybe he was racing donkeys, I don’t know.

Selections: 11-7-8-9

Race Four Pick 6- R4: 1,2,3

R5: 1,4,11 (Scratches may change this)

R6: 6,11,12

R7: 6

R8: 7

R9: 7,11

Total $1 Pick Six Ticket: $54 (Expect to change with scratches)

Race Six Pick 4: R6: All

R7: 6

R8: 7

R9: 7,11

Total $1 Pick Four Ticket: $24

Race Seven Pick 3: R7: 5,6

R8: 7

R9: All

Total $1 Pick Three Ticket: $24

Tuesday Night Lock

After a light Monday night where I didn't really have a lock I am back for more today where my two favorite playoff series take place on TNT. I am going to steer clear of the Raptors vs Nets game because it is on NBATV but I would say take the under of 194 if you had to pick. My lock tonight focuses on the early bout between the Bulls and Heat. I luve the Bulls -3.5 because I hate whiners. And if the Heat are anything besides old and crappy it is whiners. The Bulls at home in the playoffs equals easy money only giving 3.5.

By the way Kobe will rain tonight but I'm thinking Suns in four or five unfortunately. If the Lakers had anything besides Kobe we actually might get a series. And oh yeah that whole defense thing.

Lock Record: 4-5

Sunday Afternoon Lock

Sorry I didn't get my NBA Playoff locks out to you yesterday. It was a busy day. And that super in race 9 at Keeneland, woulda coulda shoulda. I did hit the nice exacta though. Haddie Be Good ran a good race, but Forest Code was just too good for him.

Today in honor of the beautiful weather outside and it is NBA Playoff Sunday you will be getting two, yes two locks of the day.

My first lock is the matinée affair between the Lakers and Suns. The Lakers are getting 10.5 which I see as an obscene amount when you have Kobe Bryant on your team. If he comes out and plays today they will not lose by more then 10. No way.

My second lock of the day is the over of 215 in the nightcap between Golden State and Dallas. A lot of people are saying the Mavs don't know how to beat the Warriors, or they are just a bad match up. Well after the Mavs put up 120 tonight a lot of people will be thinking differently.

Lock Record: 3-4

Keeneland 4.21 Picks

Here are my selections for Keeneland on Lexington Stakes day. It is suppose to be a beautiful day with a high of 73 and bright sunshine. I cannot wait, summer is COMING!!!!

Race 1 Starter Allowance 26K Mile and Three Sixteenths

Small five horse field for the first at Keeneland today. I’m going with the biggest long shot on the program in Handsome Fee. She ran six races on the polytrack at Turfway Park’s winter meet and either fired or didn’t finishing in the top three thrice times and coming in sixth or worse thrice times. I think this gelding may fire today and may take home a good price. This is clearly a price play for me though. The most impressive horse on the board to me is War Tracer. Garrett Gomez is aboard and this five year old won his last three races of the fall meet including a starter allowance at Keeneland in October. I don’t like seeing these mediocre type horses coming off long layoffs but considering his recent form War Tracer has every bit of a chance to take this easy field.

Selections: 2-3-1-6

Race 2 Maiden 50K Two Year Olds Four and One Half Furlongs

Two of the fillies entered in this race have already raced once in this Keeneland spring meet but I am steering clear of them. As always this is a race where you have to watch the board as the bettors have done fairly well with two year olds this meet. I’m going with Spin Move. Mark Casse trains and Robby Albarado gets the mount. Casse usually does a decent job with first time starters and the dam Body Moves already has one winner. My second selection is the Pletcher-Gomez combination with Brooke’s Valentine. This is a very well bred filly out of Fusaichi Pegasus and Jena Jena.

Selections: 1-5-4-2

Race 3 Claiming 25K Six Furlongs

No PP for this one so I am just going off the entries.

Selections: 8-3-1-2

Race 4 Allowance 58K Mile and an Eighth

There is no attractive horse in this race. I usually like horses that have run on the polytrack before but no one has. None of these horses are also any good on the turf so this race is an absolute crap shoot. Deputy Indy is the best bred horse and is dropping to a little easier race here. It’s always nice to see Leparoux taking the mount and the five year old is always there at the end. Maybe he can win this one. Barbican was a 2/1 favorite in his last race on April 7 at Keeneland and just got a terrible start. He has posted the best speed figures out of any horses in this race but has never run over a mile. If he has the stamina this could be the horse to beat. He also gets Gomez aboard.

Selections: 4-3-1-7

Race 5 Allowance 66K Mile and a Sixteenth (Turf)

Edgar Prado gets his first mount today and takes the class of the race with him in this pricey allowance affair. Prado gets Cosmonaut today and is coming off a four month layoff and a string of five grade one events where he finished fourth or fifth in every event. It’s going to be incredibly hard to beat this five year old and it’s tough to look away from him on the program. If there is one to look at that may go off at a decent price it is the Chilean bred Rio Mistico. Barclay Tagg traings this four year old colt that finished off last year going four for four in Chile in July. He had a strong five furlong workout a week ago and gets Cornelio Velasquez on board for a strong ride. The eight month layoff is scary and first time lasix is a bit scary too, but at the right price I will be playing Rio Mistico. Another intriguing horse in this race is Lord Carmen who gets the always reliable turf jockey Mark Guidry. Frank Kirby enter this six year old off a five month lay off but this horse loves when Guidry is aboard and can race from a stalking position or way off the pace. I would love to see this horse eat up a dead field

Selections: 5-1-3-7

Race 6 Maiden 50K Mile and an Eighth

It is tough to not look at Bill Mott and Edgar Prado who rides Counselled. An expensive three year old colt that came in second in his second race ever at Gulfstream going this distance on the turf. If he runs his best race he should easily beat this field. A horse Counselled beat in his last also in entered in this race, Chriscodey. That race was his first start and like most first starters he just didn’t fire. He raced in early April over this same polytrack but in the snow. I remember that day distinctly because you couldn’t see the race. The PP has the same problem only having his post position and where he finished. He still posted a nice speed figure and he gets blinkers today so I love this horse at the right price to win. I don’t like Kent Desormeaux much but maybe he can drive this colt to victory. Always watch out for the Pletcher-Gomez combo who put out Hawaii Calls. He is a second time starter and has trained beautifully coming into this race. If he runs wells it could be a duel between him and Counselled.

Selections: 8-4-9-2

Race 7 Giants Causeway 100K Stakes Five and a Half Furlongs (Turf)

This is the best betting race of the day with 12 fillies and mares entered on a turf sprint race. This is the third time I have said it in my selections but Pletcher-Gomez throw out another four year old filly in Forest Code. She came in second in her last 60K stakes at Santa Anita. Pletcher usually does fairly well with shippers and is obviously the best trainer at stakes races in this era. Haddie Be Good lost by only a half length in her last and has won a turf sprint stakes before at the Meadowlands. If she gets a decent pace to run after Haddie Be Good and Javier Castellano could challenge for a win. South Necking shipped from Argentina in the summer and won a nice allowance race at Bay Meadows in March by two lengths. She has only raced twice on the turf in Argentina but didn’t race poorly. Pletcher trains this four year old filly so obviously he knows what he is doing but this is a precarious position considering on nice this filly has looked on the dirt in the US.

Selections: 11-9-6-7

Race 8 Allowance 54K Seven Furlongs

No PP = going solely off entry program.

Selections: 3-9-5-8

Race 9 Coolmore Lexington GII Stakes Mile and a Sixteenth

In this biggest stakes of the day and the last chance t get into the Kentucky Derby the Lexington is wide open this year. I’m looking back at the Bluegrass from last week and going with the same angle I took Dominican last week. Joe Got Even has taken a real liking to the polytrack and has finished in the money in all fives races over the polytrack. In his last he lost to Hard Spun and Sedgefield at Turfway Park in the Lane’s End GII Stakes. If this horse can improve even a little on that effort he could take down this much easier field. He also had a bit of a interesting trip in the Lane’s End that probably cost him some ground. Trainer Patrick Biacone who has been hot recently ships Belgravia from the Left Coast for the Lexington and gets Leparoux aboard. He was the favorite in the Hollywood Futurity before losing to the likes of Stormello and Liquidity. He also had a terrible trip in his race but does like the polytrack. My intriguing option of the race is Boogiemanball. He is coming off a long layoff for Niall O’Callaghan and seemed to like the polytrack at Woodbine. He has only raced twice both under six furlongs so a mile and a sixteenth might be much but I just feel this horse may be able to run it.

Selections: 4-8-2-7

Race 10 Maiden 50K Mile and an Eighth

Another wide open maiden at Keeneland. I am leaning towards to hard luck colt that just can’t seem to break his maiden Storming Marine. He seems to like the polytrack at Keeneland racing twice very gamely. He also seems to be rounding into shape and comes to my favorite day in the Keeneland meet so far the snow day. Kettle Hill comes out of the same race as Storming Marine and finished second in it. He also loves the polytrack and likes coming from the back which seems to be a good thing this spring at Keeneland. Don’t Forget Mama is running for the hot McPeek barn and should improve in his second career start.

Selections: 2-8-3-4

YOU ROCK BURLYMON

My boy gets it done!!!

Wednesday Night Lock

After a terrible day of racing but a good night last night, I move to 2-4 on my locks. On to my lock for today. As made aware by the Dan Patrick Show this afternoon on ESPN Radio the Timberwolves host the league worse Memphis Grizzlies. The T-Wolves have a lottery pick and if that lottery pick is in the top ten they get to hold on to it and it does not have to be traded to whom I forget. If they lose they would have I believe the seventh worse record in the NBA guaranteeing them a top ten pick in the lottery. Vegas and bettors have seemed to figure this out moving the line from Minnesota -2.5 to now Memphis being a 3 point favorite. I will be taking the Grizzlies at -3 and be making nice cash. You should join along. KG probably will bet on it too since he isn't even playing with a mysterious injury no one knows of. Tonight in baseball you are getting +200 on the Twinkies at Seattle vs Felix Hernandez. Take the Twinkies, Hernandez is good but the Twinkies just know how to win.

Keeneland 4.18 Picks

Couple of races to look at and a couple tickets to play.

Race 3- Six Furlongs Optional Claimer 80K N2X for 3 Year Olds

The third leads us to a small six horse field which I find very difficult to find a winner. I am leaning away from the 8/5 morning line favorite Weather Warning because he does not deserve an 8/5 price. My decision then becomes between Quietly Mine and Native Ruler. Both are coming off layoffs of over four months, returning from GIII stakes races, and cutting back distances from over a mile to six furlongs. I am going to go with Quietly Mine because of the jockey/trainer connection of Garrett Gomez and Christophe Clement. He is one for one at Keeneland winning a 52K allowance last fall going six furlongs. Native Ruler gets Cornelio Velasquez on board and posted the best speed figures at a sprint distance between his foes. The three year old is also working out well in advanced for this sprint.

Selections: 2-4-3-6

Race 5- Six Furlongs Maiden 50K for 3 Year Old Fillies

This is a very difficult race to handicap. Out of 12 fillies only three have raced before and usually in maidens I like horses that have seen the track before. Therefore I am going with Simply Divine. Kent Desormeaux rides the filly today. She has raced twice, once on the dirt and once on the polytrack, finishing second and third respectively. The only thing that frightens me about her is she raced on the lead in both races and as many Keeneland fans know speed horses do TERRIBLE on the lead at Keeneland. My second choice is Cute Cakes a filly out of Lemon Drop Kid and Cattitude who gets the always reliable Edgar Prado aboard and has trained very well in advanced by Neil Howard. It’s hard to look past the Biacone and Leparoux combination of Im Classic Quality a $220K filly purchased from the Keeneland fall sale in 2004. She is out of Elusive Quality and Swearingen.

Selections: 5-7-4-8

Race 6- Six and One Half Furlongs Allowance 58K N2X for 4 Year Olds and Upward

No one stands out in this race at all. I’m going with a semi long shot in Forest Phantom who has 8/1 morning line odds. James Theriot gets the ride and Thomas Amoss trains the four year old gelding. Forest Phantom is a nice closer that loves the sprint and performed strong in his first try over the polytrack on April 7 at Keeneland finishing second by a nose in this same race. He cuts it back from seven furlongs today and should get a good ride from the second post position. My second selection is a lightly raced four year old (three races lifetime) out of Cat Thief and Five Star Night, Five Star Thief. The gelding is coming off a seven month layoff and has never tried the polytrack but raced really well in New York last summer winning OC 75K at Belmont. One of my favorite riders Rafael Bejarano gets the mount and that is always a good thing. It’s tough to look away from a horse that has won two of two and both over the artificial surface at Turfway Park in March and that is Broad Spectrum. This gelding could sneak into the picture.

Selections: 2-4-3-11

Race 7- One Mile and a Sixteenth (Turf) Allowance 62K N3X for 4 Year Olds and Upward

It’s hard to look away from the morning line favorite in this one, Outperformance. Trainer Richard Violette gives reliable rider Javier Castellano the mount. In the colts last race at Churchill Downs fall meet he raced in a 150K stakes and finished fourth by a half length, this despite being steadied three times around the 1/16 pole. He was also the prohibitive favorite in that race. Graham Motion trains Salinja my second selection and is ridden by John Velazquez. This five year old raced at Great Britain before being shipped to Gulfstream in February. He finished a close second and third in two allowance races in the meet. The gelding out of Boundary and Lasha taken a liking to the firmer American turf and should perform well today. If the price is right I may take this horse over Outperformance. One of Outperformances foes in the 150K stakes who actually finished ahead of him is my third selection. Kingship a four year old colt gets Robby Albarado aboard and only finished third by a neck in that race however getting a much better trip then Outperformance. He comes in at 7/2 and love the mile and a sixteenth distance.

Selections: 2-3-6-8

Race 8- Doubledogdare GIII Stakes

Let me first say this, favorites have done absolutely awful in graded stakes this spring at Keeneland. Just look at last Saturday with Street Sense, Midnight Lute, and Showing Up. Only Street Sense finished in the money. But like my locks I’m sticking to my guns and going with who should be the prohibitive favorite come post time the five year old mare Asi Siempre. She finished second in the Breeders Cup Distaff and won the Spinster GI last fall at Keeneland. She is trained by the Biacone and gets Gomez the mount, despite Leparoux being the usual jockey. He moves Pyramid Love. There is not much to say about Asi Siempre besides she is easily the best and classiest filly or mare in this field. Pyramid Love is my second selection partially because Leparoux seems to have picked this four year old filly over Asi Siempre. I am not sure though because Biacone trains both and might have asked. Pyramid Love has taken a loving to the polytrack at Keeneland and is two for two over it at this distance. She is coming off a layoff from last October at Keeneland but has solid works coming into this graded affair. At the right price I may play Pyramid Love over Asi Siempre, which if my sense tell me I could get a nice price compared to the favorite.

Selections: 5-1-7-3

Race 9- Allowance 54K N1X for Fillies & Mares 4 Years Old and Upward

Just another very difficult race to handicap on the Keeneland card to end the day. I’m intrigued by two horses in this race, Polysheba and Lordly. Polysheba is a Great Britain bred filly who raced in France last year before shipping to the Fairground this February. She has always raced on the turf and gets the great Corey Nakatani. The four year old is trained by Michael Stidham and may improve with blinkers today. As for the polytrack I always like turf to polytrack racers and for some reason I especially like European shippers, no reason, just my feelings. Lordly is a lightly raced four year old filly out of Victory Gallop and Lordy Lordy. The connections seem to want her to be a good turf horse racing her four times on the turf. In her other two appearances which were on Keeneland’s polytrack she came in first to break her maiden as a 30-1 long shot and came in third in her next race which was originally scheduled for the turf. Her speed numbers are extremely better on the polytrack so maybe trainer Philip Oliver has figured out to run her on the polytrack. Rafael Bejarano gets the mount and that is why she is going to be my number one selection. Ken McPeek brings in My Own Story from Gulfstream who has raced eight of her nine races on the turf. She seems to like the long distance finishing a strong fourth in her last going a mile and a half. She also posed her best speed figure in her last going the long distance so she may improve for a great finish.

Selections: 5-1-9-8

Lets try a pick six today:

Race Four Pick Six Ticket R4: 1,6

R5: 5

R6: 2,4

R7: 2,3

R8: 5

R9: 1,5,9

Total $1 Ticket = $36 (CHEAP!!!)

Race Five Pick Three Ticket R5: All

R6: 2,4

R7: 2,3

Total $1 Ticket = $48 (Expensive)

Race Six Pick Four Ticket R6: 2,4

R7: 2,3,6

R8: 1,5

R9: 5,8,9

Total $1 Ticket = $36

Race Seven Pick Three Ticket R7: 2,3,6

R8: 5

R9: All

Total $1 Ticket = $33

Tuesday Night Lock

In lighter news from the horrific events that occurred in Blacksburg, Virginia yesterday it's time for a long overdue lock. Or in reader's cases "Bet Against Brett Because He Is Always Wrong LOCK." Well that is up to you. Tonight I will go with the craziest line move in the NBA, the Washington Wizards opened up 5.5 points favorites versus Orlando and now Orlando is 3.5 point favorites. So I will go with what everyone else is going with and take Orlando -3.5. If you want a secondary MLB pick I love the Indians at +135 over the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. I like Westbrook on the mound in the nasty conditions up in New York.

Thoughts & Prayers With Va Tech

My thoughts and prayers are with the Hokie Nation.

I think readers know where to go to find more information on this.

More posts to come today and Keeneland picks tomorrow, but for now I pray for Va Tech and the families of the students and faculty that are not with us now.

Final Derby Prep Weekend Is Upon Us

The final weekend of Derby preps brings us two graded stakes: GI Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and GII Arkansas Derby. The former being at Keeneland and the other at Oaklawn Park. The current Kentucky Derby favorite at 6/1 is Curlin and he is racing in the Arkansas Derby versus a relatively easy field. In the Bluegrass the two big time favorites and foes are Street Sense(pictured) at 4/5 and Great Hunter at 9/5 morning line. Both have beaten each other and both have lost to Circular Quay who is training up to the Derby.

Now onto the NTRA Pick Four/Premier Pick Four which has gotten no publicity. I don't think we will get any guaranteed pool but we still may get some nice payoffs, not quite as good as last years though. The races are as follows in order: Commonwealth Breeders' Cup Stakes GII at Keeneland, Toyota Blue Grass, Instant Racing Breeders' Cup Stakes, and finally the Arkansas Derby. By the way just to warn handicappers it looks like it is going to be raining all day at Keeneland, a constant steady rain.

Commonwealth Breeders' Cup Stakes (Race 8 @ Keeneland)

Out of all four races this race probably will bring the greatest price or at least on paper looks to. It is a very wide open field with the morning line favorite being at 6/1. My top pick in this race is Steel Light an Irish bred gelding out of Stravinsky trained by Christophe Clement. The horse shipped out of Ireland in 2004 and didn't race till April of 2005. He since has raced seven races in the states and has never finished out of the money with three wins. He came off a lay off this year at Gulfstream in the Appleton Handicap and finished in second by a neck to Silver Tree, and this is despite having anything but a nice trip. Today he gets my favorite jockey, Garrett Gomez and he should get a decent pace to close off of. I'd be surprised if he is anywhere close to the 6/1 odds that he is listed at. I expect more of a 3/1 final price. The main detractor is this horse has never raced only race on the dirt once in the slop and finished third by only a half length but he still posted a strong speed figure, and he has shown a liking to rain. The two supposed favorites of this race are both shippers out of the Left Coast, Midnight Lute and Silent Name. Midnight Lute is a lightly raced four year old colt out of Real quiet and is trained by Bob Baffert and Edgar Prado is taking the mount. Last fall at Keeneland Midnight Lute ran one of the great races I have seen run at the new Keeneland. In the Perryville GIII Stakes at the same seven furlongs being run today Midnight Lute made a daring seven wide trip and drew off winning by nearly five lengths. The colt has since raced at longer distances and performed well finishing in second by a nose and fourth by two lengths. The cut back in distance today should do him well. Silent Name is a Japanese bred horse trained by Gary Mendella. Corey Nakatani gets the ride today. This horse has not raced shorter then a mile in the states and has never raced on the dirt or poly track. He can come off the pace or take the lead like he did in the Breeders’ Cup Mile in November. This is the horses first meeting versus grade two company since last April where he won the Arcadia Handicap. Look for him to improve versus easier foes. My final horse to watch out for is River City Rebel with Julien Leparoux aboard. In the geldings first race off a five month layoff he won an optional claimer of 50K by six lengths at Aqueduct. If he can put together an equal performance this gelding could be scary.

Selections: 4-7-8-2

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Race 9 @ Keeneland)

On paper this really looks like a two horse race between Street Sense and Great Hunter. Street Sense is as you remember the horse that blew away the Breeders Cup Juvenile Field and won by 10 lengths. In his first start back off a layoff for trainer Carl Nafzger he won the Tampa Derby by a nose over Any Given Saturday. Calvin Borel gets up today and by the way who wouldn’t want to see Borel win a Kentucky Derby? Great Hunter is the second favorite and ran a great race in the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. Remember before the Breeders Cup, Great Hunter beat Street Sense by three lengths at this track in the Breeders Futurity. This race is at a mile and an eighth. If I had to pick between one of them I would go with Great Hunter. However my numero uno selection is Dominican. This is a lightly raced gelding out of El Corredor. Rafael Bejarano rides him today and last month in the Rushaway at Turfway Park won by five lengths in a great stalking trip. His only two wins have come on the polytrack and for some reason if this horse gets a nice trip he will win.

Selections: 2-7-4-6

Instant Racing Breeders’ Cup Stakes (Race 10 @ Oaklawn Park)

This is the toughest race to handicap for me. A lot of these horses are racing in a stakes race and they just don’t seem to belong. I’m going to go with the Pletcher entry for my first selection, Wellofaprize. Pletcher picked up training this horse from Isaac Frederick after a stakes race in November where Wellofaprize got a horrible trip. This filly has trained with outstanding workouts up to this race. John Velazquez gets the mount today and should have this filly in a nice position coming to the early first turn. My second selection is the Steven Asmussen entry of Nice Inheritance. She is coming from Sunland Park where she had no kick in a 200K stakes race. Here she cuts it back to a mile where she won her last 50K stakes at Sunland. With a decent position around the first turn this filly could easily win this race. The only other girl I like in this race is the morning line favorite Angel Smoke. She has easily been the most consistent performer of the group and in her last won by eight lengths at Oaklawn Park in a 50K optional claimer. Martinez gets the mount again today and the horse cuts it back to a mile. Tough post position but maybe Martinez can get her in good position.

Selections: 6-5-8-10

Arkansas Derby (Race 11 @ Oaklawn Park)

Curlin is the prohibitive favorite in the race and if he goes off at anywhere close too the 7/5 morning line odds I would be very surprised. Asmussen trains the colt and Robby Albarado gets the mount. He has only raced twice in his life winning his maiden by 13 lengths and the Rebel GIII at Oaklawn Park by 5 ¼ lengths. The only other horse that scares me is Deadly Dealer, a Pletcher trained colt with Velazquez getting aboard. The ten post won’t be as difficult at a mile and an eighth either. Deadly Dealer has only raced three times in his career and has never raced over 7 ½ furlongs and has never raced in anything about the 46K allowance for non-winners of anything other then a maiden. And he didn’t even go off as the favorite in that. He did win by seven lengths though and posted a very nice Beyer speed figure of 104. But remember that came at 7 ½ furlongs. I’m leaning towards using him on my pick four ticket but the single of Curlin would take a lot off the cost. So I won’t use him.

Selections: 2-10-1-4

Premier Pick Four Ticket

Race 8: 2,4,7,8,10

Race 9: 2,4,7

Race 10: 5,6,8

Race 11: 2

Total $1 Ticket = $45

Happy Friday Lock

Lets start off by saying the picture is in honor of the absence of Locke in this weeks LOST episode. However still a great episode. As for my lock tonight, tough decision. Now I have figured out my problem with this, bet on games not on television. I am 1-0 with games not on TV and 0-4 with games on TV. I know, disgusting, tell me about it. But I am going to fight my terribleness. Yes fight! That's right TWO count them ONE, TWO lockes tonight and they are both NBA games on that great network that babies are being named after.

No analysis, just digs me a bigger grave.

Under of 186.5 in the early Miami vs Pacers game.
Why I do this, for the love of Kobe. Lakers -10.5 @ Phoenix. Kobe punches Raja. Phil quits.

Keeneland 4.12 Preview

Here are races four through nine.

Race 4

Two horse race in this maiden 50K for fillies three years of age. The two fillies are Over Under an Upcoming Story who have each raced once in their lives.. This is a very tough decision but I am going to go with the California shipper in Upcoming Story who is the 2/1 M/L favorite compared to Over Under being at 3/1. I like how Upcoming Story had a great final kick and finished second by only a neck in his first race at Santa Anita. The always respectable Biacone and Leparoux combo will try to take over the polytrack today. Over Under is a filly trained by Dallas Stewart and has the always reliable John Velazquez aboard today. Very tough decision but I am going with Biacone on this one. My third selection I am going with a little price in the Eddie Kenneally trained filly Certainly A Lady ridden by Cornelio Velasquez. Kenneally seems to know what he is doing this spring at Keeneland as he had two winners yesterday.

Selections: 6-5-10-11

Race 5

The fifth brings us another difficult race to handicap with allowance non-winners of two besides maiden and claimers for three year olds. Easily the most challenged horse in the field is French Transition at M/L odds of 3-1. Another Biacone trained horse ridden by the great Garrett Gomez. After breaking his maiden on the turf Biacone tried him on the dirt in the Robert Lewis GII Stakes where he finished 5^th by seven lengths and the likes of Great Hunter. He also ran in the Breeders Futurity and finished far back versus Kentucky Derby hopefuls Great Hunter again, Street Sense, and Circular Quay. French Transition seems to like to come off the pace so I don’t know how this race will set up for him but we will see. Todd Pletcher also has an entry in this race in Distorted Reality. He broke his maiden on the turf at Gulfstream in early March at this same distance on the turf. John Velazquez returns and it seems like blinkers really helped this horse last time and should help again. Rafael Bejarno takes the Fairgrounds shipper Mast Trick who has only raced one in his life and won by three lengths in a maiden 47K. He stretches is out today to 1 1/16 mile from 5 ½ furlongs. He seems poised to take on the extra distance though. The one common aspect of these three horses and many in this race are they like to come off the pace, except for Rahystrada. Mark Guidry gets the ride today and should put this horse on the lead. He likes being up front and with absolutely no speed in this race today he should go right to the lead. If he does he could easily steal this race wire to wire. This is a very difficult race to pick and my picks could change based on odds. I will update you on this late but for now I am going to go with Mast Trick.

Selections: 5-4-1-10

Quick Preview of the rest of the races

Race 6

I think He Loves Me Not will finally win her second race, and she does well off the pace where there is a lot of speed in this race. Louisville Sam had an impressive race off a layoff and like the polytrack; he will be my second selection.

Selections: 11-8-4-6

Race 7

Patriot Act raced versus graded stakes company in his last two races and finished second each time. Albarado gets the ride and this horse looks like a great favorite. Wood Be Willing raced against strong allowance company in Gulfstream earlier this year and finished respectable in each position. A little easier ride here and he should be in the money.

Selections: 1-9-5-7

Race 8- Stonerside Beaumont GII

Silverinyourpocket raced GIII company last out at a mile and was the 2/1 favorite but got a terrible trip five wide and finished fifth at Turfway Park. She takes it down to seven furlongs today and with a nice trip from Bejarano she could get a nice price and nice win. The Leparoux and Biacone combination put out Baroness Thatcher who raced versus GI company the last two races and she came in fourth and a close second. She faces much easier company this time and cuts it back to seven furlongs at Keeneland where last fall she broke her maiden at the same distance by five lengths. Baroness Thatcher is by far the better horse but I think I can get a better price with Silverinyourpocket.

Selections: 4-5-6-7

Race 9

Haunted Treasure drops to the claiming ranks after failing in some allowance races. He likes the shorter track of 6 ½ furlongs and seems to do well on the polytrack. Phil Treator gets the leg up today. C.G’s Striker also moves to the claiming ranks, adds blinkers today, and may do well from the rail on this sprint race.

Selections: 8-1-6-7

Race 4 Pick Three: R4: 5,6
R5: 1,4,5,10
R6: 4,8,11
Total $1 = $24

Race 4 Pick Six: R4: 5,6
R5: 1,4,5
R6: 8,11
R7: 1
R8: 4,5
R9: 1,8
Total $1 Ticket = $48

Race 6 Pick Four: R6: 8,11
R7: 1
R8: 4,5
R9: 1,5,6,7,8,11
Total $1 Ticket = $24

Race 7 Pick Three: R7: 1,5,9
R8: 4,5
R9: 1,6,7,8
Total $1 Ticket = $24

Late Daily Double: R8: 4,5
R9: 1,3,6,7,8,11
Total $2 Ticket = $24

There ya go kids. I will have a lock for you later tonight, and maybe a little on Mr. Imus and all the media of the week.

Update (3:52 ET): A nice little 61.90 pick three to start the day off and a new Keeneland polytrack record for six furlongs on a come from way back in the pack (dead last) victory for Robby Albarado and He Loves Me Not. Nice job Robby. Oh and I am halfway through the pick six.

That's Right There Is Your Late Pick Three

$320.30 folks. Makes up for that 1-4 locks. Just wanted to aware you guys. Be back later tonight with more.

Oh and thanks Mr. Prado having a very nice trip on Mary Delaney in the GII victory and my single.

Keeneland 4.11 Preview

Before I get to my selections four new jockeys make their way to Keeneland for this short spring meet: Calvin Borel, Corey Nakatani (pictured), John Velazquez, and Mark Guidry.

Feast on the picks.

Race 4

In the fourth we have an allowance of 54K and non-winners of anything other than maiden or claiming for fillies three years of age. This is an intriguing race to me with a lot of options. I’m leaning towards Quiet Action who gets the services of Julien Leparoux. This filly is out of Forest Wildcat and is shipping from the fall meet at Woodbine where he performed admirably on the turf. She broke her maiden on the turf at six furlongs in 1:11 and then was race in a mile GIII stakes where he came in second by ¾ of a length. Then trainer Mark Casse moved her to the polytrack for two stakes and she came in second and a far back sixth. She has only one official workout since at five furlongs but Casse knows what he is doing when returning horses from layoffs winning at an 18% clip. My second selection is Whisper To Me with Cornelio Velasquez. He’s shipping from the Fairgrounds where he couldn’t get that first win outside her maiden victory. She is out of my favorite Kentucky Derby winner and maybe favorite horse of all time in Thunder Gulch and is a deep closer that has a strong closing kick. In her last she came from 16 lengths back to finish third by 3 lengths. My third selection is Kenneth McPeek’s entry of Nola Star who is moving to the turf for the first time who is most recognized for being 4-1 last summer in the Arlington Breeder’s Cup Classic but finished fifth.

Selections: 5-1-8-3

Race 5

The fifth brings us more girls going for their maiden for 50k. I’m going to go with the 10-1 M/L filly who has already finished first in a race but was placed back to third due to “drifting in” New York Dixie. She won on March 15 at the Fairgrounds and has since posted some nice workouts at Keeneland. If she can correlate her race to the polytrack and go off anywhere near 10/1 I love this filly. By the way she is a deep closer, which kind of scares me on the polytrack but oh well and Albarado gets the mount. It’s tough to not look at Pletcher’s entry Sarah’s Prize who gets John Velazquez aboard. In the last two races the she has come in second by less then a length against what seems to be stronger company and one of those races was at Keeneland last fall. My last selection is the Biacone and Leparoux combination on Sun Sheika. She has race twice on the polytrack at Turf Paradise against lesser foes but with Leparoux aboard. If this filly can get out to an easy lead she may stick around to be somewhere in the money.

Selections: 7-4-9-10

Race 8- Vinery Madison GII

The GII event is for fillies and mares at seven furlongs for 200K. At 9/2 I think you are getting a great price on Mary Delaney. You are also getting one of the best jockeys in the US in Edgar Prado. This filly race in Great Britain early last year and showed she can have success in the states late last year as well. She ahs posted the best speed figures and has run great on the polytrack. I also think she can get a easy lead versus these competitors today. If she is anywhere over 2-1, I love her and especially as a single play. My second selection is the four year old filly right outside Mary Delaney, Ginger Punch. Rafael Bejarno gets the services today. She has only raced six times in her life and is two for three from seven furlongs, both wins being by over six lengths which is most impressive and both times Bejarano was aboard. She is coming off a long layoff and I am not a fan of horses off layoffs but Frankel does hit at a 24% clip. So you never know.

Selections: 5-6-4-2

Race Four Pick Three: R4: 1,5

R5: 4,7,10

R6: 2,3

Total $1 Ticket Amount: $12

Race Seven Pick Three: R7: All

R8: 5

R9: 1,9,11

Total $1 Ticket Amount: $27

Wednesday Morning Coffee & Donuts

I don't have much for you guys this morning. I'll be posting previews to three Keeneland races today and will have some other posts throughout the day. Jenks' arm and Pods' head costs me the lock last night. What a terrible game for White Sox fans. Maybe if your lucky you might get an American Idol post today.

Tuesday Night Lock

The lock worked one night so why wouldn't it work again. I'm going to stick with TV tonight and take the White Sox who are -110 at Oakland. The game is on WGN and starts at 10:05 ET. Garland is on the mound for the Sox and that is the may reason I like them. He had a decent start in his debut but goes up against Chad Gaudin tonight and in a pitcher friendly ballpark I love Garland. I think the Sox can once again grind out some runs like they did last night and win. You can go against me but you know I can put up a W.

Lock Record: 1-3