The final weekend of Derby preps brings us two graded stakes: GI Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and GII Arkansas Derby. The former being at Keeneland and the other at Oaklawn Park. The current Kentucky Derby favorite at 6/1 is Curlin and he is racing in the Arkansas Derby versus a relatively easy field. In the Bluegrass the two big time favorites and foes are Street Sense(pictured) at 4/5 and Great Hunter at 9/5 morning line. Both have beaten each other and both have lost to Circular Quay who is training up to the Derby.
Now onto the NTRA Pick Four/Premier Pick Four which has gotten no publicity. I don't think we will get any guaranteed pool but we still may get some nice payoffs, not quite as good as last years though. The races are as follows in order: Commonwealth Breeders' Cup Stakes GII at Keeneland, Toyota Blue Grass, Instant Racing Breeders' Cup Stakes, and finally the Arkansas Derby. By the way just to warn handicappers it looks like it is going to be raining all day at Keeneland, a constant steady rain.
Commonwealth Breeders' Cup Stakes (Race 8 @ Keeneland)
Out of all four races this race probably will bring the greatest price or at least on paper looks to. It is a very wide open field with the morning line favorite being at 6/1. My top pick in this race is Steel Light an Irish bred gelding out of Stravinsky trained by Christophe Clement. The horse shipped out of Ireland in 2004 and didn't race till April of 2005. He since has raced seven races in the states and has never finished out of the money with three wins. He came off a lay off this year at Gulfstream in the Appleton Handicap and finished in second by a neck to Silver Tree, and this is despite having anything but a nice trip. Today he gets my favorite jockey, Garrett Gomez and he should get a decent pace to close off of. I'd be surprised if he is anywhere close to the 6/1 odds that he is listed at. I expect more of a 3/1 final price. The main detractor is this horse has never raced only race on the dirt once in the slop and finished third by only a half length but he still posted a strong speed figure, and he has shown a liking to rain. The two supposed favorites of this race are both shippers out of the Left Coast, Midnight Lute and Silent Name. Midnight Lute is a lightly raced four year old colt out of Real quiet and is trained by Bob Baffert and Edgar Prado is taking the mount. Last fall at Keeneland Midnight Lute ran one of the great races I have seen run at the new Keeneland. In the Perryville GIII Stakes at the same seven furlongs being run today Midnight Lute made a daring seven wide trip and drew off winning by nearly five lengths. The colt has since raced at longer distances and performed well finishing in second by a nose and fourth by two lengths. The cut back in distance today should do him well. Silent Name is a Japanese bred horse trained by Gary Mendella. Corey Nakatani gets the ride today. This horse has not raced shorter then a mile in the states and has never raced on the dirt or poly track. He can come off the pace or take the lead like he did in the Breeders’ Cup Mile in November. This is the horses first meeting versus grade two company since last April where he won the Arcadia Handicap. Look for him to improve versus easier foes. My final horse to watch out for is River City Rebel with Julien Leparoux aboard. In the geldings first race off a five month layoff he won an optional claimer of 50K by six lengths at Aqueduct. If he can put together an equal performance this gelding could be scary.
Selections: 4-7-8-2
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Race 9 @ Keeneland)
On paper this really looks like a two horse race between Street Sense and Great Hunter. Street Sense is as you remember the horse that blew away the Breeders Cup Juvenile Field and won by 10 lengths. In his first start back off a layoff for trainer Carl Nafzger he won the Tampa Derby by a nose over Any Given Saturday. Calvin Borel gets up today and by the way who wouldn’t want to see Borel win a Kentucky Derby? Great Hunter is the second favorite and ran a great race in the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. Remember before the Breeders Cup, Great Hunter beat Street Sense by three lengths at this track in the Breeders Futurity. This race is at a mile and an eighth. If I had to pick between one of them I would go with Great Hunter. However my numero uno selection is Dominican. This is a lightly raced gelding out of El Corredor. Rafael Bejarano rides him today and last month in the Rushaway at Turfway Park won by five lengths in a great stalking trip. His only two wins have come on the polytrack and for some reason if this horse gets a nice trip he will win.
Selections: 2-7-4-6
Instant Racing Breeders’ Cup Stakes (Race 10 @ Oaklawn Park)
This is the toughest race to handicap for me. A lot of these horses are racing in a stakes race and they just don’t seem to belong. I’m going to go with the Pletcher entry for my first selection, Wellofaprize. Pletcher picked up training this horse from Isaac Frederick after a stakes race in November where Wellofaprize got a horrible trip. This filly has trained with outstanding workouts up to this race. John Velazquez gets the mount today and should have this filly in a nice position coming to the early first turn. My second selection is the Steven Asmussen entry of Nice Inheritance. She is coming from Sunland Park where she had no kick in a 200K stakes race. Here she cuts it back to a mile where she won her last 50K stakes at Sunland. With a decent position around the first turn this filly could easily win this race. The only other girl I like in this race is the morning line favorite Angel Smoke. She has easily been the most consistent performer of the group and in her last won by eight lengths at Oaklawn Park in a 50K optional claimer. Martinez gets the mount again today and the horse cuts it back to a mile. Tough post position but maybe Martinez can get her in good position.
Selections: 6-5-8-10
Arkansas Derby (Race 11 @ Oaklawn Park)
Curlin is the prohibitive favorite in the race and if he goes off at anywhere close too the 7/5 morning line odds I would be very surprised. Asmussen trains the colt and Robby Albarado gets the mount. He has only raced twice in his life winning his maiden by 13 lengths and the Rebel GIII at Oaklawn Park by 5 ¼ lengths. The only other horse that scares me is Deadly Dealer, a Pletcher trained colt with Velazquez getting aboard. The ten post won’t be as difficult at a mile and an eighth either. Deadly Dealer has only raced three times in his career and has never raced over 7 ½ furlongs and has never raced in anything about the 46K allowance for non-winners of anything other then a maiden. And he didn’t even go off as the favorite in that. He did win by seven lengths though and posted a very nice Beyer speed figure of 104. But remember that came at 7 ½ furlongs. I’m leaning towards using him on my pick four ticket but the single of Curlin would take a lot off the cost. So I won’t use him.
Selections: 2-10-1-4
Premier Pick Four Ticket
Race 8: 2,4,7,8,10
Race 9: 2,4,7
Race 10: 5,6,8
Race 11: 2
Total $1 Ticket = $45
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