Hurricanes (-2) vs. A&M Aggies

Not much time to give you a full detailed review tonight of the game but I am telling you to take the 'Canes giving two points. This team needed that Oklahoma schlacking and came out impressively last week versus FIU. Their defense is strong and should be able to stop the vaunted rushing attack of Lane, Goodspeed, and McGee.

Miami's offense is lacking but A&M's defense is not as strong as last year. Being the Canes are in their last season at the "OB" I think they come out of this game on top. The crowd will be pumped and the defense will come out firing. Take Miami minus two. And if you want play the under of 46 too.

My Prediction: 23-20
My Record: 3-3-1

Jacksonville vs. Atlanta Under of 35

This game probably has the intrigue of the nation behind it. A most unexciting Falcons squad versus a Jaguars squad that did absolutely nothing in week one of the season. Well, actually nobody will be watching this game except for me because I think easy money can be won.

Last week the Jaguars defense played a sneaky offense in the Titans and did not do that bad of a job. They did give up 262 yards of offense rushing but Vince Young only threw for 86 yards versus them. This week they get perhaps a inferior QB in Joey Harrington and should be able to handle him. Yes Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood will run and run and run but that is good for any under in that the clock keeps on rolling.

On the other hand you have a bad Jacksonville offense versus a decent Falcons offense. The one thing that scares me in this match-up is that if Jones-Drew and Taylor run the ball well they could score a lot of points. I still feel though that the Falcons and Bobby Petrino can stack the box and make David Gerrard throw the ball which he hasn't shown he can do and win.

Scariest part for me about this under is the propensity for each team to turn the ball over and the defense scoring touchdowns. I don't think it will happen though and expect a low scoring, boring game. So take the under of 35 and maybe I might win won this week.

My Prediction: Jacksonville 17 Atlanta 9

My Record: 0-2-1

Some other games of note:

• The Bengals (-7.5) go up north to meet their Ohio rival the Cleveland Browns in Paul Brown stadium. The Bengals looked solid last week in beating the Ravens and the Browns looked awful in getting hammered by the Steelers. Take the Bengals only giving a touchdown.
• The 49ers (+3) travel to St Louis where Frank Gore has been unbelievable. The 49ers squeaked by the Cardinals last week but Alex Smith showed great poise in the final two minutes of the game to lead a game winning drive. The Rams looked bad at home and do not look like they will be getting any better with the loss of hall of fame LT Orlando Pace. Take the 49ers getting a field goal.
• The Cowboys (-4) travel to Miami where they should be able to hold a bad Miami offense to less then 30 points. Dallas can put up over 30 points. With the Cowboys only giving 4 points I love the Cowboys and Mr. Romo.
• The Saints (-4.5) travel to Tampa Bay with a needed win in their mind. Drew Brees will come out firing and maybe Sean Payton will decide to try and get the ground game going with Deuce McAllister. Tampa Bay is reeling and if Jeff Garcia is feeling any after effects of his concussion last week Luke McCown will have to come in and that spells bad things for the Bucs. Take the Saints giving 4.5 on the road.

I'll be back later today with a preview of the matchup everyone has been waiting for tonight between the Patriots (cheaters) and the Chargers (whiners).

Maryland (+17) vs West Virginia (O/U 62)

Byrd Stadium is going to be packed tonight and the student section of the Terps will be in all black ready for the border war game vs West Virginia. And I just have a small hunch the Terps are going to come out firing versus the explosive offense of the Mountaineers led by Pat White.

In the past five meetings at Byrd Stadium Maryland has only failed to cover and that was their last meeting when White and RB Steve Slaton were freshman. West Virginia ran for 301 yards that night but tonight Erin Henderson and a sturdy Terps defense will not allow White and Slaton to run anywhere they want.

In Maryland's first two games this year they have held their inferior opponents (Florida International and Villanova) to a combined 93 yards rushing. Obviously the Fridge has told them something about defending the rush this year especially coming into this game.

On the other hand last week the Mountaineers gave up 121 rushing yards to a not so great Marshall running game. They must step up that part of the game to defend running backs Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore. And they must worry about QB Jordan Steffy running the ball every once in a while.

West Virginia definitely won't have to worry about Steffy's inferior passing game though. Steffy is a first time starter for the Terps this year and has been less then stellar. If the Mountaineers can contain Steffy then the Terps may be in for some big trouble. If Steffy can roll out of the pocket and look for small to intermediate routes the Terps can succeed in the passing game.

Still with below average passing game the Terps should be able to keep this game close. If they can control the clock and use their running game there is no reason they can not stay within a shout especially at a noisy Byrd Stadium. Home game for the Terps equals a competitive fight out of a stout defense and determined offense. Expect the Terps to stay close but end up losing in the end.

Lock: Maryland (+17)

Final Score: WVU 27 Maryland 23

PS: My heart tells me the Terps are going to shock the college football world tonight and win!

FEAR THE TURTLE tonight!

Friday Night Lock

After an awesome Thursday night I am going to stick with one lock tonight. I will be taking the Bulls +5.5. The Heat just do not have it this year and I don't know if they will get it back in this series. The Bulls have so much energy and are just much deeper and stronger all around. Look for the Bulls to cover the 5.5 and go up 3-0 in the series.

Lock Record: 8-5

BTW- Sorry for not cluing you in on Keeneland's 9th race today the Elkhorn Stakes. I actually hit the try and exacta with the 8-4-2. I took Jazil out of the race and boxed four horses for the tri and exactor and took home both. It was a great day for me at the tracks, well not really besides that race but I am sorry I did not clue you guys in. I know the first pick of the year and I don't post it. The $2 exacta paid $126 and the $1 tri ticket I had paid $968. I will have a little more money to waste on the Derby next weekend which is always good and I will be getting the De La Hoya vs Mayweather fight too! Oh and I am also alive in the late pick three, go figure.

Couple Housekeeping Notes for the Next Few Days

A nice night last night in the NBA so that is always good. Even my hearty pick won and that does not usually happen. today there will be no finale Keeneland picks, sorry between time and not having PP's I won't be able to get it done. It was a semi rough spring at Keeneland for me but I actually didn't do as badly as I thought. It's just my top selections weren't nearly as good as my second and third selections. I tend to go with the sexy pick more then the favorite pick so oh well. Do expect in the upcoming days though select Churchill Downs selections and handicapping blogs. I will be back tonight with some locks so stay tuned.

And in the upcoming week before May 5th (Derby Day) I will preview every horse in the field when the field is announced, which I believe is Wednesday. Then I will have a full rundown of the Derby and Oaks and probably any other race that will be on ESPN.

Thursday Night Lock

I didn't do great today at the track, decent early but not great late. A lot of bombs won and some favorites. Tonight my fortunes will change. I will give you two locks tonight since moving to a awesome 5-5, I will be looking to go to 7-5. My first lock is the Utah Jazz -4.5 versus the Rockets. The Jazz always seem to do well at home and Tony Kornheiser loved them on PTI and his radio show today so since he is the all knowing NBA analyst I will go with him.

My second lock isn't really a lock more of just a joy play, Kobe Bryant +4.5 versus Phoenix. It should be a great game especially if the Lakers come out with any pizazz. And it will be also great to see good ole' Jack.

So to recap Kobe +4.5 and Utah -4.5 By the way I'm just going to go all out and have three locks, why not. Pistons -2. The Magic are reeling and the Pistons want this a clean bloodless affair.

So finally:

• Kobe +4.5 (TNT Late)
  
• Utah -4.5 (NBATV)
  
• Pistons -2 (TNT Early)
  

Keeneland 4.26 Picks

After a terrible day yesterday where bombs won left and right maybe we can turn it around today and find some nice prices this afternoon at a dreary Keeneland. Here are races one through four and I will be posting races five through nine later.

Race 1- Maiden 50K Four and One Half Furlongs for Two Year Olds

This is a pretty sharp field for maiden two year olds. I bet Witness Protection last time out on April 15 where he missed by a half length. He ran the four and one half furlongs in a nice 51 seconds flat. I think is second time out should do him very well. With trainer Eric Reed giving Rafael Bejarano the mount again expect this two year old colt to win in his second lifetime start. There are a couple other intriguing plays both first time starters and second time starters and another horse I bet on before. Nownownow I also bet on his debut for the Biacone barn on April 6. He ran second in his debut as well and lost by a length. I do like to see this horse had one workout between starts so he seems ready. Robby Albarado rides first time starter Live Action for trainer Ronny Werner and we are going to have to watch the board with this one to see if he gets any live action because he has posted two great works prior to this debut race.

Selections: 9-8-1-7

Race 2- Claiming 25K Mile and One Eighth

No PP for this one, only race where I don’t have PP’s so that is good.

Selections: 1-8-6-2

Race 3- Maiden 50K Seven Furlongs

The third brings us an interesting field of three year old fillies looking for their first win. Pure Silk is a well bred filly out of Pure Prize. She ran once in March at Fairgrounds in the slop and finished fifth. Trainer Steve Asmussen brings the filly to the polytrack looking to improve in her second start and Asmussen is usually strong with second time starters. Garret Gomez takes the reigns and hopefully will steer this filly to victory. The hot barn of Ken McPeek brings out a second time starter also in Ms. Sabbatical. She ran eighth in her debut last fall at Keeneland. She has shown nice works coming into this race and may sneak up on the field at a decent price. First time starter Tuckahoe Road has shown great works for the Christophe Clement barn and gets a nice 11 post for the seven furlong chute race. Corey Nakatani rides and the only worry is that the sire Quiet American is only 6% with first time starters, so I guess that is not good.

Selections: 8-7-11-6

Race 4- Allowance 54K n1x Mile and One Eighth on the Turf

First race on the turf today and it will be interesting to see if the weather cooperates. Keeneland’s website says the turf is good and there is going to be intermittent showers throughout the day. So I plan on the turf being used today and it being around soft. In for a Dime is 10/1 morning line and if she goes off anywhere around that price she will be my pick. You have to scratch off her last at Gulfstream becauses he was taken up on the first turn by Bejarano. Today she gets the services of Edgar Prado and trainer Graham Motion has worked this filly out well prior to today. Motion also has done a decent job at Keeneland this spring getting horses in the money at a better then 50% clip. Also, In for a Dime’s only win came on a good turf course so maybe the rain might do her well versus others. Communique comes off an impressive second in a GIII stakes at Gulfstream in March and drops considerably in class for this one. She seems to enjoy the mile and an eighth distance and has a strong chance to get the second win of her career here. More than a Feeling besides being great lyrics to a great song runs for Mr. Pletcher today and gets John Velazquez aboard. She broke her maiden in her second career start at Gulfstream in early April. She has shown the best speed out of any filly in this field and if she gets a decent pace to run after she could take home her second win in as many starts this afternoon.

Selections: 5-7-4-6

Race 5- Claiming 50K Six and One Half Furlongs

An interesting group of some well run horses come into the fifth race. My number one selection is Primal Peak. He’s run three times this year at the Fairgrounds on the turf versus allowance company. In all three races he ran gamely and came in first in his first race back at 4/1. Today he drops to claiming company however these are equal foes. In his last three races versus claimers he won twice once on the polytrack at Turfway. He goes back to the polytrack and stretches out to six and one half furlongs. I think I may get a nice price on this four year old colt. Nerinx is a five year old gelding trained by Michael Maker and gets Cornelio Velasquez aboard. He’s finished in the money all three times on the polytrack. Last fall he raced in this same race at Keeneland and finished second to Without a Doubt. He is shipping from Hawthorne where he won versus easier allowance company.

Selections: 6-5-10-8

Race 6- Maiden 50K Seven Furlongs

This is a complete crapshoot race so watch the board for clues. My number one selection right now is Pegasus Power who raced once last fall at Keeneland. He had a troubled start and cuts it back to seven furlongs today. Trainer John Ward sends out Edgar Prado which is always a good thing and barring another terrible trip this colt should be there in the end. Unbridled Trust is a first timer for the Asmussen stable and Garret Gomez rides. Unbridled Trust is a three year old colt out of Unbridled Song that sold for $950K in 2005. He has a lot of strong works and Unbridled Song has been putting out tremendous horses so far having four of four winners and one stakes winner. Last note on this race is what a great Yankeessweptinfour is.

Selections: 11-5-10-3

Race 7- Allowance 58K n2x Mile and One Sixteenth ***OFF THE TURF

Obi Wan Kenobi besides being a Star Wars hero is trained by Frank Brothers and my favorite turf jockey Mark Guidry rides. He’s always around come the finish line including a third place finish in the GIII Jefferson Cup last fall at Churchill. I think he may get an easy lead and if he does I think he will take this field wire to wire. Loconia trots out for the Graham Motion barn for the second time in this fall meet and cuts the distance down from a mile and an eighth where the four year old colt finished third by a neck versus similar foes. He likes the stalking style and should be placed in good position by Julien Leparoux. Tahoe Warrior is coming off a four month layoff where he ran some stakes and just never fired away on the East Coast. He has shown some good works and it’s always nice to see Garret Gomez aboard. *It just got announced this race is off the turf . I will move Tiger Woodman up and play him in my pick threes and such.*

Selections: 4-10-7-3

Race 8- Ben Ali GIII Stakes Mile and One Eighth

It’s a wide open field for the Ben Ali Stakes in Keeneland’s eighth race. Saint Stephen has mainly ran on the turf except for in Decemeber when he came off a seven month layoff and raced at Hollywood Park in a GIII stakes going a mile and an eighth where he won at 4/1 odds. He raced twice this year in Florida stakes races and finished gamely in each. I like trainer Christophe Clement switching him back to the polytrack where he has trained well and Garrett Gomez rides. At the right price Saint Stephen will be my number one play. Stream Cat is coming off a strong allowance 66K victory earlier this month where he was coming off a nine month layoff. He stretches out another sixteenth of a mile today but faces relatively open company today. Eccentric is coming off a five month layoff for Roger Attfield and Edgar Prado rides. He won the Fayette GIII Stakes last fall at Keeneland going the same distance. Has posted a sharp five furlong 1:01 bullet work on April 17 and seems poised to come of the layoff.

Selections: 11-10-2-12

Race 9- Allowance 54K n1x One Mile on the Turf

Pine Shelter returns off a three month layoff for trainer George Arnold and everyone’s favorite Rafael Bejarano rides. Last fall at Churchill he finished second on the turf going this same distance versus a similar field. With the right trip this four year old filly should be able to win his second career race. Roshani broke her maiden last time out in late March at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher. She has posted the best speed figures out of anyone in the field and should be well placed by John Velazquez. Banking on Candy is coming off a nine month layoff but has posted three fast works and may be worked too much coming into this race. She loves the mile on the turf though and may get an easy pace so she can run wire to wire.

Selections: 7-2-10-9

That is all. I will be posting tonight an NBA lock for you guys to mull over. I don't think it will be the Lakers straight up though.