4/12/2007

Keeneland 4.12 Preview



Here are races four through nine.

Race 4

Two horse race in this maiden 50K for fillies three years of age. The two fillies are Over Under an Upcoming Story who have each raced once in their lives.. This is a very tough decision but I am going to go with the California shipper in Upcoming Story who is the 2/1 M/L favorite compared to Over Under being at 3/1. I like how Upcoming Story had a great final kick and finished second by only a neck in his first race at Santa Anita. The always respectable Biacone and Leparoux combo will try to take over the polytrack today. Over Under is a filly trained by Dallas Stewart and has the always reliable John Velazquez aboard today. Very tough decision but I am going with Biacone on this one. My third selection I am going with a little price in the Eddie Kenneally trained filly Certainly A Lady ridden by Cornelio Velasquez. Kenneally seems to know what he is doing this spring at Keeneland as he had two winners yesterday.

Selections: 6-5-10-11

Race 5

The fifth brings us another difficult race to handicap with allowance non-winners of two besides maiden and claimers for three year olds. Easily the most challenged horse in the field is French Transition at M/L odds of 3-1. Another Biacone trained horse ridden by the great Garrett Gomez. After breaking his maiden on the turf Biacone tried him on the dirt in the Robert Lewis GII Stakes where he finished 5th by seven lengths and the likes of Great Hunter. He also ran in the Breeders Futurity and finished far back versus Kentucky Derby hopefuls Great Hunter again, Street Sense, and Circular Quay. French Transition seems to like to come off the pace so I don’t know how this race will set up for him but we will see. Todd Pletcher also has an entry in this race in Distorted Reality. He broke his maiden on the turf at Gulfstream in early March at this same distance on the turf. John Velazquez returns and it seems like blinkers really helped this horse last time and should help again. Rafael Bejarno takes the Fairgrounds shipper Mast Trick who has only raced one in his life and won by three lengths in a maiden 47K. He stretches is out today to 1 1/16 mile from 5 ½ furlongs. He seems poised to take on the extra distance though. The one common aspect of these three horses and many in this race are they like to come off the pace, except for Rahystrada. Mark Guidry gets the ride today and should put this horse on the lead. He likes being up front and with absolutely no speed in this race today he should go right to the lead. If he does he could easily steal this race wire to wire. This is a very difficult race to pick and my picks could change based on odds. I will update you on this late but for now I am going to go with Mast Trick.

Selections: 5-4-1-10

Quick Preview of the rest of the races

Race 6

I think He Loves Me Not will finally win her second race, and she does well off the pace where there is a lot of speed in this race. Louisville Sam had an impressive race off a layoff and like the polytrack; he will be my second selection.

Selections: 11-8-4-6

Race 7

Patriot Act raced versus graded stakes company in his last two races and finished second each time. Albarado gets the ride and this horse looks like a great favorite. Wood Be Willing raced against strong allowance company in Gulfstream earlier this year and finished respectable in each position. A little easier ride here and he should be in the money.

Selections: 1-9-5-7

Race 8- Stonerside Beaumont GII

Silverinyourpocket raced GIII company last out at a mile and was the 2/1 favorite but got a terrible trip five wide and finished fifth at Turfway Park. She takes it down to seven furlongs today and with a nice trip from Bejarano she could get a nice price and nice win. The Leparoux and Biacone combination put out Baroness Thatcher who raced versus GI company the last two races and she came in fourth and a close second. She faces much easier company this time and cuts it back to seven furlongs at Keeneland where last fall she broke her maiden at the same distance by five lengths. Baroness Thatcher is by far the better horse but I think I can get a better price with Silverinyourpocket.

Selections: 4-5-6-7

Race 9

Haunted Treasure drops to the claiming ranks after failing in some allowance races. He likes the shorter track of 6 ½ furlongs and seems to do well on the polytrack. Phil Treator gets the leg up today. C.G’s Striker also moves to the claiming ranks, adds blinkers today, and may do well from the rail on this sprint race.

Selections: 8-1-6-7


Race 4 Pick Three: R4: 5,6
R5: 1,4,5,10
R6: 4,8,11
Total $1 = $24

Race 4 Pick Six: R4: 5,6
R5: 1,4,5
R6: 8,11
R7: 1
R8: 4,5
R9: 1,8
Total $1 Ticket = $48

Race 6 Pick Four: R6: 8,11
R7: 1
R8: 4,5
R9: 1,5,6,7,8,11
Total $1 Ticket = $24

Race 7 Pick Three: R7: 1,5,9
R8: 4,5
R9: 1,6,7,8
Total $1 Ticket = $24

Late Daily Double: R8: 4,5
R9: 1,3,6,7,8,11
Total $2 Ticket = $24

There ya go kids. I will have a lock for you later tonight, and maybe a little on Mr. Imus and all the media of the week.

Update (3:52 ET): A nice little 61.90 pick three to start the day off and a new Keeneland polytrack record for six furlongs on a come from way back in the pack (dead last) victory for Robby Albarado and He Loves Me Not. Nice job Robby. Oh and I am halfway through the pick six.

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