After a terrible day yesterday where bombs won left and right maybe we can turn it around today and find some nice prices this afternoon at a dreary Keeneland. Here are races one through four and I will be posting races five through nine later.
Race 1- Maiden 50K Four and One Half Furlongs for Two Year Olds
This is a pretty sharp field for maiden two year olds. I bet Witness Protection last time out on April 15 where he missed by a half length. He ran the four and one half furlongs in a nice 51 seconds flat. I think is second time out should do him very well. With trainer Eric Reed giving Rafael Bejarano the mount again expect this two year old colt to win in his second lifetime start. There are a couple other intriguing plays both first time starters and second time starters and another horse I bet on before. Nownownow I also bet on his debut for the Biacone barn on April 6. He ran second in his debut as well and lost by a length. I do like to see this horse had one workout between starts so he seems ready. Robby Albarado rides first time starter Live Action for trainer Ronny Werner and we are going to have to watch the board with this one to see if he gets any live action because he has posted two great works prior to this debut race.
Selections: 9-8-1-7
Race 2- Claiming 25K Mile and One Eighth
No PP for this one, only race where I don’t have PP’s so that is good.
Selections: 1-8-6-2
Race 3- Maiden 50K Seven Furlongs
The third brings us an interesting field of three year old fillies looking for their first win. Pure Silk is a well bred filly out of Pure Prize. She ran once in March at Fairgrounds in the slop and finished fifth. Trainer Steve Asmussen brings the filly to the polytrack looking to improve in her second start and Asmussen is usually strong with second time starters. Garret Gomez takes the reigns and hopefully will steer this filly to victory. The hot barn of Ken McPeek brings out a second time starter also in Ms. Sabbatical. She ran eighth in her debut last fall at Keeneland. She has shown nice works coming into this race and may sneak up on the field at a decent price. First time starter Tuckahoe Road has shown great works for the Christophe Clement barn and gets a nice 11 post for the seven furlong chute race. Corey Nakatani rides and the only worry is that the sire Quiet American is only 6% with first time starters, so I guess that is not good.
Selections: 8-7-11-6
Race 4- Allowance 54K n1x Mile and One Eighth on the Turf
First race on the turf today and it will be interesting to see if the weather cooperates. Keeneland’s website says the turf is good and there is going to be intermittent showers throughout the day. So I plan on the turf being used today and it being around soft. In for a Dime is 10/1 morning line and if she goes off anywhere around that price she will be my pick. You have to scratch off her last at Gulfstream becauses he was taken up on the first turn by Bejarano. Today she gets the services of Edgar Prado and trainer Graham Motion has worked this filly out well prior to today. Motion also has done a decent job at Keeneland this spring getting horses in the money at a better then 50% clip. Also, In for a Dime’s only win came on a good turf course so maybe the rain might do her well versus others. Communique comes off an impressive second in a GIII stakes at Gulfstream in March and drops considerably in class for this one. She seems to enjoy the mile and an eighth distance and has a strong chance to get the second win of her career here. More than a Feeling besides being great lyrics to a great song runs for Mr. Pletcher today and gets John Velazquez aboard. She broke her maiden in her second career start at Gulfstream in early April. She has shown the best speed out of any filly in this field and if she gets a decent pace to run after she could take home her second win in as many starts this afternoon.
Selections: 5-7-4-6
Race 5- Claiming 50K Six and One Half Furlongs
An interesting group of some well run horses come into the fifth race. My number one selection is Primal Peak. He’s run three times this year at the Fairgrounds on the turf versus allowance company. In all three races he ran gamely and came in first in his first race back at 4/1. Today he drops to claiming company however these are equal foes. In his last three races versus claimers he won twice once on the polytrack at Turfway. He goes back to the polytrack and stretches out to six and one half furlongs. I think I may get a nice price on this four year old colt. Nerinx is a five year old gelding trained by Michael Maker and gets Cornelio Velasquez aboard. He’s finished in the money all three times on the polytrack. Last fall he raced in this same race at Keeneland and finished second to Without a Doubt. He is shipping from Hawthorne where he won versus easier allowance company.
Selections: 6-5-10-8
Race 6- Maiden 50K Seven Furlongs
This is a complete crapshoot race so watch the board for clues. My number one selection right now is Pegasus Power who raced once last fall at Keeneland. He had a troubled start and cuts it back to seven furlongs today. Trainer John Ward sends out Edgar Prado which is always a good thing and barring another terrible trip this colt should be there in the end. Unbridled Trust is a first timer for the Asmussen stable and Garret Gomez rides. Unbridled Trust is a three year old colt out of Unbridled Song that sold for $950K in 2005. He has a lot of strong works and Unbridled Song has been putting out tremendous horses so far having four of four winners and one stakes winner. Last note on this race is what a great Yankeessweptinfour is.
Selections: 11-5-10-3
Race 7- Allowance 58K n2x Mile and One Sixteenth ***OFF THE TURF
Obi Wan Kenobi besides being a Star Wars hero is trained by Frank Brothers and my favorite turf jockey Mark Guidry rides. He’s always around come the finish line including a third place finish in the GIII Jefferson Cup last fall at Churchill. I think he may get an easy lead and if he does I think he will take this field wire to wire. Loconia trots out for the Graham Motion barn for the second time in this fall meet and cuts the distance down from a mile and an eighth where the four year old colt finished third by a neck versus similar foes. He likes the stalking style and should be placed in good position by Julien Leparoux. Tahoe Warrior is coming off a four month layoff where he ran some stakes and just never fired away on the East Coast. He has shown some good works and it’s always nice to see Garret Gomez aboard. *It just got announced this race is off the turf . I will move Tiger Woodman up and play him in my pick threes and such.*
Selections: 4-10-7-3
Race 8- Ben Ali GIII Stakes Mile and One Eighth
It’s a wide open field for the Ben Ali Stakes in Keeneland’s eighth race. Saint Stephen has mainly ran on the turf except for in Decemeber when he came off a seven month layoff and raced at Hollywood Park in a GIII stakes going a mile and an eighth where he won at 4/1 odds. He raced twice this year in Florida stakes races and finished gamely in each. I like trainer Christophe Clement switching him back to the polytrack where he has trained well and Garrett Gomez rides. At the right price Saint Stephen will be my number one play. Stream Cat is coming off a strong allowance 66K victory earlier this month where he was coming off a nine month layoff. He stretches out another sixteenth of a mile today but faces relatively open company today. Eccentric is coming off a five month layoff for Roger Attfield and Edgar Prado rides. He won the Fayette GIII Stakes last fall at Keeneland going the same distance. Has posted a sharp five furlong 1:01 bullet work on April 17 and seems poised to come of the layoff.
Selections: 11-10-2-12
Race 9- Allowance 54K n1x One Mile on the Turf
Pine Shelter returns off a three month layoff for trainer George Arnold and everyone’s favorite Rafael Bejarano rides. Last fall at Churchill he finished second on the turf going this same distance versus a similar field. With the right trip this four year old filly should be able to win his second career race. Roshani broke her maiden last time out in late March at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher. She has posted the best speed figures out of anyone in the field and should be well placed by John Velazquez. Banking on Candy is coming off a nine month layoff but has posted three fast works and may be worked too much coming into this race. She loves the mile on the turf though and may get an easy pace so she can run wire to wire.
Selections: 7-2-10-9
That is all. I will be posting tonight an NBA lock for you guys to mull over. I don't think it will be the Lakers straight up though.
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