Keeneland 4.25 Picks

I did well with my lock yesterday here's hoping the luck carries over to the track. Here are my picks for Keeneland from races 4 on.

Race 4- Claiming 40,000 Five and One Half Furlongs

The fourth brings us a small claimer with no real clear cut favorite. My first selection is Bernie White Shoes who is trained by Patrick Biacone and Julien Leparoux rides. He went off as the favorite in his last race in mid April at Keeneland coming off a six month layoff and just didn’t fire at six and one half furlongs. That was an allowance so he is dropping in class and the competition in this race looks much easier for him. Warrior Within is coming off a short three month layoff from Turfway’s winter meet and has seemed to taken a liking to the polytrack. He does meet much easier foes this time out and should like the cut back in distance from a mile in his last. He also has some pretty solid works as of late. My third and fourth selections are the two Greg Foley entries 1 and 1A. It seems like a crime to get both Prado and Gomez on one ticket. I suspect the one entry to be to the favorite but if they are close to 5/1 I may be putting a ticket on them.

Selections: 2-3-1A-1

Race 5- Allowance 54K 1X One Mile on the Turf

With an 80% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow in Lexington I suspect this may get taken off the turf. If that happens my selections could change. The other factor is the morning line favorite is the AE 12 Niagara Causeway. If he runs I suspect him to be a big favorite. But that is very open in the air. Besides that my number one selection is the Thomas Amoss entry Kelvington. The always reliable Robby Albarado gets the ride. I know he has not looked good at the allowance ranks but has performed well versus claimers. However I feel this five year old gelding is hitting stride now coming from the Fairgrounds and if this stays on the turf I really like this horse at a good price. He also has put up very nice speed figures compared to the rest of the field. Fongtastic is shipping from the Fairgrounds where he ran against similar allowance company. This gelding always seems to be there at the end but can’t win. Maybe today is his day.

Selections: 1-4-11-7

Main Track Selections: 8-7-5-9

Race 6- Maiden 50K Seven Furlongs

This is a wide open maiden affair and I am going to look for some price here. It’s A Danzig is trained by Rebecca Maker and Larry Melancon gets the mount. In two career races he has finished second twice on the dirt and turf in Illinois. He has had two nice bullet works of 1:13 going six furlongs and :58 going five furlongs. He is coming off a seven month layoff which is always scary but maybe Maker has something with this horse. I know I am hoping she has something. My second selection will probably go off as the favorite, Royal War Academy. Royal War Academy has already race ten times and has finished in the money five of ten times. He just can’t seem to get the right trip to break his maiden. He raced in the Transylvania GIII Stakes a couple weeks ago at Keeneland and didn’t perform that poorly. If he gets the right trip from Albarado this Jaime Sanders trained colt should finally break his maiden, finally.

Selections: 6-11-12-4

Race 7- Allowance 54K n2L About Seven Furlongs

In Quasicobra’s second career start he handily beat a 50K maiden field at Keeneland earlier this month. This was coming off an eight month. Biacone trains Quasicobra and Leparoux gets the ride. He ran this same seven furlongs in an easy 1:25 and I expect him to romp the field today. I will be using him as my single in the late pick four and late pick three. The only thing that scares me is rain and I don’t know why I am scared. I don’t think I need to talk about my other selections but I probably should do some triactors and exactors for Canadian fans. Firerock Base broke his maiden his second time out on this same Keeneland course going seven furlongs. He goes the extra 50 or so yards today and should perform well on the same track. Torini gets Edgar Prado and that is always a good reason to use a horse in exotics. By the way this meet Prado is getting in the money at an above 50% clip.

Selections: 6-5-12-10

Race 8- Bewitch Stakes GIII Mile and One Half on the Turf

I will be interested to see if they keep this race on the turf. I would be surprised if they take it off but we will only see. With that I will already assume the track is soft to yielding so that will factor in my selections. But you know what nothing should matter in this race because Pletcher plus Velazquez plus a graded stakes equals victory, especially when their horse is by far the best in the field. This five year old mare is already one for two in graded stakes this year and has shown that he can run in the slop incase this race gets taken off the turf. Single me up here and by the way this late pick three and pick four could be cheap with a very small payoff.

Selections: 7-5- WAY BACK 1-3

Main Track Selections: 7-3-4-5

Race 9- Claiming 30K n2L Mile and One Sixteenth

Fairly wide open closing race to close Keeneland out today. Bird Charm is dropping down to a 50K open claimer where he performed decently. He hasn’t ever done great at this distance but has run well, if that makes any sense at all. Alonso Quinonez gets the ride and is still looking for his first win this spring at Keeneland and hopefully he can get on here. Talent Scout gets Rafael Bejarano aboard and runs on the polytrack for only the second time in his career and in his one start he finished two lengths off the pace versus allowance company. This looks to be a much easier field and the switch from turf to polytrack may do this four year old colt well. I really don’t like much any other horse in this race so I can’t tell you much anything else. One interesting horse to watch is Rove who is ridden by Miguel Mena and who broke his maiden in March at Turfway in his twelfth career start by get this 20 lengths. Yes 20 lengths. Maybe he was racing donkeys, I don’t know.

Selections: 11-7-8-9

Race Four Pick 6- R4: 1,2,3

R5: 1,4,11 (Scratches may change this)

R6: 6,11,12

R7: 6

R8: 7

R9: 7,11

Total $1 Pick Six Ticket: $54 (Expect to change with scratches)

Race Six Pick 4: R6: All

R7: 6

R8: 7

R9: 7,11

Total $1 Pick Four Ticket: $24

Race Seven Pick 3: R7: 5,6

R8: 7

R9: All

Total $1 Pick Three Ticket: $24

Tuesday Night Lock

After a light Monday night where I didn't really have a lock I am back for more today where my two favorite playoff series take place on TNT. I am going to steer clear of the Raptors vs Nets game because it is on NBATV but I would say take the under of 194 if you had to pick. My lock tonight focuses on the early bout between the Bulls and Heat. I luve the Bulls -3.5 because I hate whiners. And if the Heat are anything besides old and crappy it is whiners. The Bulls at home in the playoffs equals easy money only giving 3.5.

By the way Kobe will rain tonight but I'm thinking Suns in four or five unfortunately. If the Lakers had anything besides Kobe we actually might get a series. And oh yeah that whole defense thing.

Lock Record: 4-5

Sunday Afternoon Lock

Sorry I didn't get my NBA Playoff locks out to you yesterday. It was a busy day. And that super in race 9 at Keeneland, woulda coulda shoulda. I did hit the nice exacta though. Haddie Be Good ran a good race, but Forest Code was just too good for him.

Today in honor of the beautiful weather outside and it is NBA Playoff Sunday you will be getting two, yes two locks of the day.

My first lock is the matinée affair between the Lakers and Suns. The Lakers are getting 10.5 which I see as an obscene amount when you have Kobe Bryant on your team. If he comes out and plays today they will not lose by more then 10. No way.

My second lock of the day is the over of 215 in the nightcap between Golden State and Dallas. A lot of people are saying the Mavs don't know how to beat the Warriors, or they are just a bad match up. Well after the Mavs put up 120 tonight a lot of people will be thinking differently.

Lock Record: 3-4

Keeneland 4.21 Picks

Here are my selections for Keeneland on Lexington Stakes day. It is suppose to be a beautiful day with a high of 73 and bright sunshine. I cannot wait, summer is COMING!!!!

Race 1 Starter Allowance 26K Mile and Three Sixteenths

Small five horse field for the first at Keeneland today. I’m going with the biggest long shot on the program in Handsome Fee. She ran six races on the polytrack at Turfway Park’s winter meet and either fired or didn’t finishing in the top three thrice times and coming in sixth or worse thrice times. I think this gelding may fire today and may take home a good price. This is clearly a price play for me though. The most impressive horse on the board to me is War Tracer. Garrett Gomez is aboard and this five year old won his last three races of the fall meet including a starter allowance at Keeneland in October. I don’t like seeing these mediocre type horses coming off long layoffs but considering his recent form War Tracer has every bit of a chance to take this easy field.

Selections: 2-3-1-6

Race 2 Maiden 50K Two Year Olds Four and One Half Furlongs

Two of the fillies entered in this race have already raced once in this Keeneland spring meet but I am steering clear of them. As always this is a race where you have to watch the board as the bettors have done fairly well with two year olds this meet. I’m going with Spin Move. Mark Casse trains and Robby Albarado gets the mount. Casse usually does a decent job with first time starters and the dam Body Moves already has one winner. My second selection is the Pletcher-Gomez combination with Brooke’s Valentine. This is a very well bred filly out of Fusaichi Pegasus and Jena Jena.

Selections: 1-5-4-2

Race 3 Claiming 25K Six Furlongs

No PP for this one so I am just going off the entries.

Selections: 8-3-1-2

Race 4 Allowance 58K Mile and an Eighth

There is no attractive horse in this race. I usually like horses that have run on the polytrack before but no one has. None of these horses are also any good on the turf so this race is an absolute crap shoot. Deputy Indy is the best bred horse and is dropping to a little easier race here. It’s always nice to see Leparoux taking the mount and the five year old is always there at the end. Maybe he can win this one. Barbican was a 2/1 favorite in his last race on April 7 at Keeneland and just got a terrible start. He has posted the best speed figures out of any horses in this race but has never run over a mile. If he has the stamina this could be the horse to beat. He also gets Gomez aboard.

Selections: 4-3-1-7

Race 5 Allowance 66K Mile and a Sixteenth (Turf)

Edgar Prado gets his first mount today and takes the class of the race with him in this pricey allowance affair. Prado gets Cosmonaut today and is coming off a four month layoff and a string of five grade one events where he finished fourth or fifth in every event. It’s going to be incredibly hard to beat this five year old and it’s tough to look away from him on the program. If there is one to look at that may go off at a decent price it is the Chilean bred Rio Mistico. Barclay Tagg traings this four year old colt that finished off last year going four for four in Chile in July. He had a strong five furlong workout a week ago and gets Cornelio Velasquez on board for a strong ride. The eight month layoff is scary and first time lasix is a bit scary too, but at the right price I will be playing Rio Mistico. Another intriguing horse in this race is Lord Carmen who gets the always reliable turf jockey Mark Guidry. Frank Kirby enter this six year old off a five month lay off but this horse loves when Guidry is aboard and can race from a stalking position or way off the pace. I would love to see this horse eat up a dead field

Selections: 5-1-3-7

Race 6 Maiden 50K Mile and an Eighth

It is tough to not look at Bill Mott and Edgar Prado who rides Counselled. An expensive three year old colt that came in second in his second race ever at Gulfstream going this distance on the turf. If he runs his best race he should easily beat this field. A horse Counselled beat in his last also in entered in this race, Chriscodey. That race was his first start and like most first starters he just didn’t fire. He raced in early April over this same polytrack but in the snow. I remember that day distinctly because you couldn’t see the race. The PP has the same problem only having his post position and where he finished. He still posted a nice speed figure and he gets blinkers today so I love this horse at the right price to win. I don’t like Kent Desormeaux much but maybe he can drive this colt to victory. Always watch out for the Pletcher-Gomez combo who put out Hawaii Calls. He is a second time starter and has trained beautifully coming into this race. If he runs wells it could be a duel between him and Counselled.

Selections: 8-4-9-2

Race 7 Giants Causeway 100K Stakes Five and a Half Furlongs (Turf)

This is the best betting race of the day with 12 fillies and mares entered on a turf sprint race. This is the third time I have said it in my selections but Pletcher-Gomez throw out another four year old filly in Forest Code. She came in second in her last 60K stakes at Santa Anita. Pletcher usually does fairly well with shippers and is obviously the best trainer at stakes races in this era. Haddie Be Good lost by only a half length in her last and has won a turf sprint stakes before at the Meadowlands. If she gets a decent pace to run after Haddie Be Good and Javier Castellano could challenge for a win. South Necking shipped from Argentina in the summer and won a nice allowance race at Bay Meadows in March by two lengths. She has only raced twice on the turf in Argentina but didn’t race poorly. Pletcher trains this four year old filly so obviously he knows what he is doing but this is a precarious position considering on nice this filly has looked on the dirt in the US.

Selections: 11-9-6-7

Race 8 Allowance 54K Seven Furlongs

No PP = going solely off entry program.

Selections: 3-9-5-8

Race 9 Coolmore Lexington GII Stakes Mile and a Sixteenth

In this biggest stakes of the day and the last chance t get into the Kentucky Derby the Lexington is wide open this year. I’m looking back at the Bluegrass from last week and going with the same angle I took Dominican last week. Joe Got Even has taken a real liking to the polytrack and has finished in the money in all fives races over the polytrack. In his last he lost to Hard Spun and Sedgefield at Turfway Park in the Lane’s End GII Stakes. If this horse can improve even a little on that effort he could take down this much easier field. He also had a bit of a interesting trip in the Lane’s End that probably cost him some ground. Trainer Patrick Biacone who has been hot recently ships Belgravia from the Left Coast for the Lexington and gets Leparoux aboard. He was the favorite in the Hollywood Futurity before losing to the likes of Stormello and Liquidity. He also had a terrible trip in his race but does like the polytrack. My intriguing option of the race is Boogiemanball. He is coming off a long layoff for Niall O’Callaghan and seemed to like the polytrack at Woodbine. He has only raced twice both under six furlongs so a mile and a sixteenth might be much but I just feel this horse may be able to run it.

Selections: 4-8-2-7

Race 10 Maiden 50K Mile and an Eighth

Another wide open maiden at Keeneland. I am leaning towards to hard luck colt that just can’t seem to break his maiden Storming Marine. He seems to like the polytrack at Keeneland racing twice very gamely. He also seems to be rounding into shape and comes to my favorite day in the Keeneland meet so far the snow day. Kettle Hill comes out of the same race as Storming Marine and finished second in it. He also loves the polytrack and likes coming from the back which seems to be a good thing this spring at Keeneland. Don’t Forget Mama is running for the hot McPeek barn and should improve in his second career start.

Selections: 2-8-3-4

YOU ROCK BURLYMON

My boy gets it done!!!

Wednesday Night Lock

After a terrible day of racing but a good night last night, I move to 2-4 on my locks. On to my lock for today. As made aware by the Dan Patrick Show this afternoon on ESPN Radio the Timberwolves host the league worse Memphis Grizzlies. The T-Wolves have a lottery pick and if that lottery pick is in the top ten they get to hold on to it and it does not have to be traded to whom I forget. If they lose they would have I believe the seventh worse record in the NBA guaranteeing them a top ten pick in the lottery. Vegas and bettors have seemed to figure this out moving the line from Minnesota -2.5 to now Memphis being a 3 point favorite. I will be taking the Grizzlies at -3 and be making nice cash. You should join along. KG probably will bet on it too since he isn't even playing with a mysterious injury no one knows of. Tonight in baseball you are getting +200 on the Twinkies at Seattle vs Felix Hernandez. Take the Twinkies, Hernandez is good but the Twinkies just know how to win.

Keeneland 4.18 Picks

Couple of races to look at and a couple tickets to play.

Race 3- Six Furlongs Optional Claimer 80K N2X for 3 Year Olds

The third leads us to a small six horse field which I find very difficult to find a winner. I am leaning away from the 8/5 morning line favorite Weather Warning because he does not deserve an 8/5 price. My decision then becomes between Quietly Mine and Native Ruler. Both are coming off layoffs of over four months, returning from GIII stakes races, and cutting back distances from over a mile to six furlongs. I am going to go with Quietly Mine because of the jockey/trainer connection of Garrett Gomez and Christophe Clement. He is one for one at Keeneland winning a 52K allowance last fall going six furlongs. Native Ruler gets Cornelio Velasquez on board and posted the best speed figures at a sprint distance between his foes. The three year old is also working out well in advanced for this sprint.

Selections: 2-4-3-6

Race 5- Six Furlongs Maiden 50K for 3 Year Old Fillies

This is a very difficult race to handicap. Out of 12 fillies only three have raced before and usually in maidens I like horses that have seen the track before. Therefore I am going with Simply Divine. Kent Desormeaux rides the filly today. She has raced twice, once on the dirt and once on the polytrack, finishing second and third respectively. The only thing that frightens me about her is she raced on the lead in both races and as many Keeneland fans know speed horses do TERRIBLE on the lead at Keeneland. My second choice is Cute Cakes a filly out of Lemon Drop Kid and Cattitude who gets the always reliable Edgar Prado aboard and has trained very well in advanced by Neil Howard. It’s hard to look past the Biacone and Leparoux combination of Im Classic Quality a $220K filly purchased from the Keeneland fall sale in 2004. She is out of Elusive Quality and Swearingen.

Selections: 5-7-4-8

Race 6- Six and One Half Furlongs Allowance 58K N2X for 4 Year Olds and Upward

No one stands out in this race at all. I’m going with a semi long shot in Forest Phantom who has 8/1 morning line odds. James Theriot gets the ride and Thomas Amoss trains the four year old gelding. Forest Phantom is a nice closer that loves the sprint and performed strong in his first try over the polytrack on April 7 at Keeneland finishing second by a nose in this same race. He cuts it back from seven furlongs today and should get a good ride from the second post position. My second selection is a lightly raced four year old (three races lifetime) out of Cat Thief and Five Star Night, Five Star Thief. The gelding is coming off a seven month layoff and has never tried the polytrack but raced really well in New York last summer winning OC 75K at Belmont. One of my favorite riders Rafael Bejarano gets the mount and that is always a good thing. It’s tough to look away from a horse that has won two of two and both over the artificial surface at Turfway Park in March and that is Broad Spectrum. This gelding could sneak into the picture.

Selections: 2-4-3-11

Race 7- One Mile and a Sixteenth (Turf) Allowance 62K N3X for 4 Year Olds and Upward

It’s hard to look away from the morning line favorite in this one, Outperformance. Trainer Richard Violette gives reliable rider Javier Castellano the mount. In the colts last race at Churchill Downs fall meet he raced in a 150K stakes and finished fourth by a half length, this despite being steadied three times around the 1/16 pole. He was also the prohibitive favorite in that race. Graham Motion trains Salinja my second selection and is ridden by John Velazquez. This five year old raced at Great Britain before being shipped to Gulfstream in February. He finished a close second and third in two allowance races in the meet. The gelding out of Boundary and Lasha taken a liking to the firmer American turf and should perform well today. If the price is right I may take this horse over Outperformance. One of Outperformances foes in the 150K stakes who actually finished ahead of him is my third selection. Kingship a four year old colt gets Robby Albarado aboard and only finished third by a neck in that race however getting a much better trip then Outperformance. He comes in at 7/2 and love the mile and a sixteenth distance.

Selections: 2-3-6-8

Race 8- Doubledogdare GIII Stakes

Let me first say this, favorites have done absolutely awful in graded stakes this spring at Keeneland. Just look at last Saturday with Street Sense, Midnight Lute, and Showing Up. Only Street Sense finished in the money. But like my locks I’m sticking to my guns and going with who should be the prohibitive favorite come post time the five year old mare Asi Siempre. She finished second in the Breeders Cup Distaff and won the Spinster GI last fall at Keeneland. She is trained by the Biacone and gets Gomez the mount, despite Leparoux being the usual jockey. He moves Pyramid Love. There is not much to say about Asi Siempre besides she is easily the best and classiest filly or mare in this field. Pyramid Love is my second selection partially because Leparoux seems to have picked this four year old filly over Asi Siempre. I am not sure though because Biacone trains both and might have asked. Pyramid Love has taken a loving to the polytrack at Keeneland and is two for two over it at this distance. She is coming off a layoff from last October at Keeneland but has solid works coming into this graded affair. At the right price I may play Pyramid Love over Asi Siempre, which if my sense tell me I could get a nice price compared to the favorite.

Selections: 5-1-7-3

Race 9- Allowance 54K N1X for Fillies & Mares 4 Years Old and Upward

Just another very difficult race to handicap on the Keeneland card to end the day. I’m intrigued by two horses in this race, Polysheba and Lordly. Polysheba is a Great Britain bred filly who raced in France last year before shipping to the Fairground this February. She has always raced on the turf and gets the great Corey Nakatani. The four year old is trained by Michael Stidham and may improve with blinkers today. As for the polytrack I always like turf to polytrack racers and for some reason I especially like European shippers, no reason, just my feelings. Lordly is a lightly raced four year old filly out of Victory Gallop and Lordy Lordy. The connections seem to want her to be a good turf horse racing her four times on the turf. In her other two appearances which were on Keeneland’s polytrack she came in first to break her maiden as a 30-1 long shot and came in third in her next race which was originally scheduled for the turf. Her speed numbers are extremely better on the polytrack so maybe trainer Philip Oliver has figured out to run her on the polytrack. Rafael Bejarano gets the mount and that is why she is going to be my number one selection. Ken McPeek brings in My Own Story from Gulfstream who has raced eight of her nine races on the turf. She seems to like the long distance finishing a strong fourth in her last going a mile and a half. She also posed her best speed figure in her last going the long distance so she may improve for a great finish.

Selections: 5-1-9-8

Lets try a pick six today:

Race Four Pick Six Ticket R4: 1,6

R5: 5

R6: 2,4

R7: 2,3

R8: 5

R9: 1,5,9

Total $1 Ticket = $36 (CHEAP!!!)

Race Five Pick Three Ticket R5: All

R6: 2,4

R7: 2,3

Total $1 Ticket = $48 (Expensive)

Race Six Pick Four Ticket R6: 2,4

R7: 2,3,6

R8: 1,5

R9: 5,8,9

Total $1 Ticket = $36

Race Seven Pick Three Ticket R7: 2,3,6

R8: 5

R9: All

Total $1 Ticket = $33