Stuck In The Middle With Nothing

Hurricanes (-2) vs. A&M Aggies

2007-09-20T17:52:00.000-05:00

Not much time to give you a full detailed review tonight of the game but I am telling you to take the 'Canes giving two points. This team needed that Oklahoma schlacking and came out impressively last week versus FIU. Their defense is strong and should be able to stop the vaunted rushing attack of Lane, Goodspeed, and McGee.

Miami's offense is lacking but A&M's defense is not as strong as last year. Being the Canes are in their last season at the "OB" I think they come out of this game on top. The crowd will be pumped and the defense will come out firing. Take Miami minus two. And if you want play the under of 46 too.

My Prediction: 23-20
My Record: 3-3-1

Jacksonville vs. Atlanta Under of 35

2007-09-16T10:45:00.000-05:00

This game probably has the intrigue of the nation behind it. A most unexciting Falcons squad versus a Jaguars squad that did absolutely nothing in week one of the season. Well, actually nobody will be watching this game except for me because I think easy money can be won.

Last week the Jaguars defense played a sneaky offense in the Titans and did not do that bad of a job. They did give up 262 yards of offense rushing but Vince Young only threw for 86 yards versus them. This week they get perhaps a inferior QB in Joey Harrington and should be able to handle him. Yes Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood will run and run and run but that is good for any under in that the clock keeps on rolling.

On the other hand you have a bad Jacksonville offense versus a decent Falcons offense. The one thing that scares me in this match-up is that if Jones-Drew and Taylor run the ball well they could score a lot of points. I still feel though that the Falcons and Bobby Petrino can stack the box and make David Gerrard throw the ball which he hasn't shown he can do and win.

Scariest part for me about this under is the propensity for each team to turn the ball over and the defense scoring touchdowns. I don't think it will happen though and expect a low scoring, boring game. So take the under of 35 and maybe I might win won this week.

My Prediction: Jacksonville 17 Atlanta 9

My Record: 0-2-1

Some other games of note:

The Bengals (-7.5) go up north to meet their Ohio rival the Cleveland Browns in Paul Brown stadium. The Bengals looked solid last week in beating the Ravens and the Browns looked awful in getting hammered by the Steelers. Take the Bengals only giving a touchdown.
The 49ers (+3) travel to St Louis where Frank Gore has been unbelievable. The 49ers squeaked by the Cardinals last week but Alex Smith showed great poise in the final two minutes of the game to lead a game winning drive. The Rams looked bad at home and do not look like they will be getting any better with the loss of hall of fame LT Orlando Pace. Take the 49ers getting a field goal.
The Cowboys (-4) travel to Miami where they should be able to hold a bad Miami offense to less then 30 points. Dallas can put up over 30 points. With the Cowboys only giving 4 points I love the Cowboys and Mr. Romo.
The Saints (-4.5) travel to Tampa Bay with a needed win in their mind. Drew Brees will come out firing and maybe Sean Payton will decide to try and get the ground game going with Deuce McAllister. Tampa Bay is reeling and if Jeff Garcia is feeling any after effects of his concussion last week Luke McCown will have to come in and that spells bad things for the Bucs. Take the Saints giving 4.5 on the road.

I'll be back later today with a preview of the matchup everyone has been waiting for tonight between the Patriots (cheaters) and the Chargers (whiners).

Maryland (+17) vs West Virginia (O/U 62)

2007-09-13T18:15:00.000-05:00

Byrd Stadium is going to be packed tonight and the student section of the Terps will be in all black ready for the border war game vs West Virginia. And I just have a small hunch the Terps are going to come out firing versus the explosive offense of the Mountaineers led by Pat White.

In the past five meetings at Byrd Stadium Maryland has only failed to cover and that was their last meeting when White and RB Steve Slaton were freshman. West Virginia ran for 301 yards that night but tonight Erin Henderson and a sturdy Terps defense will not allow White and Slaton to run anywhere they want.

In Maryland's first two games this year they have held their inferior opponents (Florida International and Villanova) to a combined 93 yards rushing. Obviously the Fridge has told them something about defending the rush this year especially coming into this game.

On the other hand last week the Mountaineers gave up 121 rushing yards to a not so great Marshall running game. They must step up that part of the game to defend running backs Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore. And they must worry about QB Jordan Steffy running the ball every once in a while.

West Virginia definitely won't have to worry about Steffy's inferior passing game though. Steffy is a first time starter for the Terps this year and has been less then stellar. If the Mountaineers can contain Steffy then the Terps may be in for some big trouble. If Steffy can roll out of the pocket and look for small to intermediate routes the Terps can succeed in the passing game.

Still with below average passing game the Terps should be able to keep this game close. If they can control the clock and use their running game there is no reason they can not stay within a shout especially at a noisy Byrd Stadium. Home game for the Terps equals a competitive fight out of a stout defense and determined offense. Expect the Terps to stay close but end up losing in the end.

Lock: Maryland (+17)

Final Score: WVU 27 Maryland 23

PS: My heart tells me the Terps are going to shock the college football world tonight and win!

FEAR THE TURTLE tonight!

Friday Night Lock

2007-04-27T16:21:00.000-05:00

After an awesome Thursday night I am going to stick with one lock tonight. I will be taking the Bulls +5.5. The Heat just do not have it this year and I don't know if they will get it back in this series. The Bulls have so much energy and are just much deeper and stronger all around. Look for the Bulls to cover the 5.5 and go up 3-0 in the series.

Lock Record: 8-5

BTW- Sorry for not cluing you in on Keeneland's 9th race today the Elkhorn Stakes. I actually hit the try and exacta with the 8-4-2. I took Jazil out of the race and boxed four horses for the tri and exactor and took home both. It was a great day for me at the tracks, well not really besides that race but I am sorry I did not clue you guys in. I know the first pick of the year and I don't post it. The $2 exacta paid $126 and the $1 tri ticket I had paid $968. I will have a little more money to waste on the Derby next weekend which is always good and I will be getting the De La Hoya vs Mayweather fight too! Oh and I am also alive in the late pick three, go figure.

Couple Housekeeping Notes for the Next Few Days

2007-04-27T08:20:00.000-05:00

A nice night last night in the NBA so that is always good. Even my hearty pick won and that does not usually happen. today there will be no finale Keeneland picks, sorry between time and not having PP's I won't be able to get it done. It was a semi rough spring at Keeneland for me but I actually didn't do as badly as I thought. It's just my top selections weren't nearly as good as my second and third selections. I tend to go with the sexy pick more then the favorite pick so oh well. Do expect in the upcoming days though select Churchill Downs selections and handicapping blogs. I will be back tonight with some locks so stay tuned.

And in the upcoming week before May 5th (Derby Day) I will preview every horse in the field when the field is announced, which I believe is Wednesday. Then I will have a full rundown of the Derby and Oaks and probably any other race that will be on ESPN.

Thursday Night Lock

2007-04-26T17:59:00.000-05:00

I didn't do great today at the track, decent early but not great late. A lot of bombs won and some favorites. Tonight my fortunes will change. I will give you two locks tonight since moving to a awesome 5-5, I will be looking to go to 7-5. My first lock is the Utah Jazz -4.5 versus the Rockets. The Jazz always seem to do well at home and Tony Kornheiser loved them on PTI and his radio show today so since he is the all knowing NBA analyst I will go with him.

My second lock isn't really a lock more of just a joy play, Kobe Bryant +4.5 versus Phoenix. It should be a great game especially if the Lakers come out with any pizazz. And it will be also great to see good ole' Jack.

So to recap Kobe +4.5 and Utah -4.5 By the way I'm just going to go all out and have three locks, why not. Pistons -2. The Magic are reeling and the Pistons want this a clean bloodless affair.

So finally:

Kobe +4.5 (TNT Late)
Utah -4.5 (NBATV)
Pistons -2 (TNT Early)

Keeneland 4.26 Picks

2007-04-26T10:13:00.000-05:00

After a terrible day yesterday where bombs won left and right maybe we can turn it around today and find some nice prices this afternoon at a dreary Keeneland. Here are races one through four and I will be posting races five through nine later.

Race 1- Maiden 50K Four and One Half Furlongs for Two Year Olds

This is a pretty sharp field for maiden two year olds. I bet Witness Protection last time out on April 15 where he missed by a half length. He ran the four and one half furlongs in a nice 51 seconds flat. I think is second time out should do him very well. With trainer Eric Reed giving Rafael Bejarano the mount again expect this two year old colt to win in his second lifetime start. There are a couple other intriguing plays both first time starters and second time starters and another horse I bet on before. Nownownow I also bet on his debut for the Biacone barn on April 6. He ran second in his debut as well and lost by a length. I do like to see this horse had one workout between starts so he seems ready. Robby Albarado rides first time starter Live Action for trainer Ronny Werner and we are going to have to watch the board with this one to see if he gets any live action because he has posted two great works prior to this debut race.

Selections: 9-8-1-7

Race 2- Claiming 25K Mile and One Eighth

No PP for this one, only race where I don’t have PP’s so that is good.

Selections: 1-8-6-2

Race 3- Maiden 50K Seven Furlongs

The third brings us an interesting field of three year old fillies looking for their first win. Pure Silk is a well bred filly out of Pure Prize. She ran once in March at Fairgrounds in the slop and finished fifth. Trainer Steve Asmussen brings the filly to the polytrack looking to improve in her second start and Asmussen is usually strong with second time starters. Garret Gomez takes the reigns and hopefully will steer this filly to victory. The hot barn of Ken McPeek brings out a second time starter also in Ms. Sabbatical. She ran eighth in her debut last fall at Keeneland. She has shown nice works coming into this race and may sneak up on the field at a decent price. First time starter Tuckahoe Road has shown great works for the Christophe Clement barn and gets a nice 11 post for the seven furlong chute race. Corey Nakatani rides and the only worry is that the sire Quiet American is only 6% with first time starters, so I guess that is not good.

Selections: 8-7-11-6

Race 4- Allowance 54K n1x Mile and One Eighth on the Turf

First race on the turf today and it will be interesting to see if the weather cooperates. Keeneland’s website says the turf is good and there is going to be intermittent showers throughout the day. So I plan on the turf being used today and it being around soft. In for a Dime is 10/1 morning line and if she goes off anywhere around that price she will be my pick. You have to scratch off her last at Gulfstream becauses he was taken up on the first turn by Bejarano. Today she gets the services of Edgar Prado and trainer Graham Motion has worked this filly out well prior to today. Motion also has done a decent job at Keeneland this spring getting horses in the money at a better then 50% clip. Also, In for a Dime’s only win came on a good turf course so maybe the rain might do her well versus others. Communique comes off an impressive second in a GIII stakes at Gulfstream in March and drops considerably in class for this one. She seems to enjoy the mile and an eighth distance and has a strong chance to get the second win of her career here. More than a Feeling besides being great lyrics to a great song runs for Mr. Pletcher today and gets John Velazquez aboard. She broke her maiden in her second career start at Gulfstream in early April. She has shown the best speed out of any filly in this field and if she gets a decent pace to run after she could take home her second win in as many starts this afternoon.

Selections: 5-7-4-6

Race 5- Claiming 50K Six and One Half Furlongs

An interesting group of some well run horses come into the fifth race. My number one selection is Primal Peak. He’s run three times this year at the Fairgrounds on the turf versus allowance company. In all three races he ran gamely and came in first in his first race back at 4/1. Today he drops to claiming company however these are equal foes. In his last three races versus claimers he won twice once on the polytrack at Turfway. He goes back to the polytrack and stretches out to six and one half furlongs. I think I may get a nice price on this four year old colt. Nerinx is a five year old gelding trained by Michael Maker and gets Cornelio Velasquez aboard. He’s finished in the money all three times on the polytrack. Last fall he raced in this same race at Keeneland and finished second to Without a Doubt. He is shipping from Hawthorne where he won versus easier allowance company.

Selections: 6-5-10-8

Race 6- Maiden 50K Seven Furlongs

This is a complete crapshoot race so watch the board for clues. My number one selection right now is Pegasus Power who raced once last fall at Keeneland. He had a troubled start and cuts it back to seven furlongs today. Trainer John Ward sends out Edgar Prado which is always a good thing and barring another terrible trip this colt should be there in the end. Unbridled Trust is a first timer for the Asmussen stable and Garret Gomez rides. Unbridled Trust is a three year old colt out of Unbridled Song that sold for $950K in 2005. He has a lot of strong works and Unbridled Song has been putting out tremendous horses so far having four of four winners and one stakes winner. Last note on this race is what a great Yankeessweptinfour is.

Selections: 11-5-10-3

Race 7- Allowance 58K n2x Mile and One Sixteenth ***OFF THE TURF

Obi Wan Kenobi besides being a Star Wars hero is trained by Frank Brothers and my favorite turf jockey Mark Guidry rides. He’s always around come the finish line including a third place finish in the GIII Jefferson Cup last fall at Churchill. I think he may get an easy lead and if he does I think he will take this field wire to wire. Loconia trots out for the Graham Motion barn for the second time in this fall meet and cuts the distance down from a mile and an eighth where the four year old colt finished third by a neck versus similar foes. He likes the stalking style and should be placed in good position by Julien Leparoux. Tahoe Warrior is coming off a four month layoff where he ran some stakes and just never fired away on the East Coast. He has shown some good works and it’s always nice to see Garret Gomez aboard. *It just got announced this race is off the turf . I will move Tiger Woodman up and play him in my pick threes and such.*

Selections: 4-10-7-3

Race 8- Ben Ali GIII Stakes Mile and One Eighth

It’s a wide open field for the Ben Ali Stakes in Keeneland’s eighth race. Saint Stephen has mainly ran on the turf except for in Decemeber when he came off a seven month layoff and raced at Hollywood Park in a GIII stakes going a mile and an eighth where he won at 4/1 odds. He raced twice this year in Florida stakes races and finished gamely in each. I like trainer Christophe Clement switching him back to the polytrack where he has trained well and Garrett Gomez rides. At the right price Saint Stephen will be my number one play. Stream Cat is coming off a strong allowance 66K victory earlier this month where he was coming off a nine month layoff. He stretches out another sixteenth of a mile today but faces relatively open company today. Eccentric is coming off a five month layoff for Roger Attfield and Edgar Prado rides. He won the Fayette GIII Stakes last fall at Keeneland going the same distance. Has posted a sharp five furlong 1:01 bullet work on April 17 and seems poised to come of the layoff.

Selections: 11-10-2-12

Race 9- Allowance 54K n1x One Mile on the Turf

Pine Shelter returns off a three month layoff for trainer George Arnold and everyone’s favorite Rafael Bejarano rides. Last fall at Churchill he finished second on the turf going this same distance versus a similar field. With the right trip this four year old filly should be able to win his second career race. Roshani broke her maiden last time out in late March at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher. She has posted the best speed figures out of anyone in the field and should be well placed by John Velazquez. Banking on Candy is coming off a nine month layoff but has posted three fast works and may be worked too much coming into this race. She loves the mile on the turf though and may get an easy pace so she can run wire to wire.

Selections: 7-2-10-9

That is all. I will be posting tonight an NBA lock for you guys to mull over. I don't think it will be the Lakers straight up though.

Keeneland 4.25 Picks

2007-04-25T12:15:00.000-05:00

I did well with my lock yesterday here's hoping the luck carries over to the track. Here are my picks for Keeneland from races 4 on.

Race 4- Claiming 40,000 Five and One Half Furlongs

The fourth brings us a small claimer with no real clear cut favorite. My first selection is Bernie White Shoes who is trained by Patrick Biacone and Julien Leparoux rides. He went off as the favorite in his last race in mid April at Keeneland coming off a six month layoff and just didn’t fire at six and one half furlongs. That was an allowance so he is dropping in class and the competition in this race looks much easier for him. Warrior Within is coming off a short three month layoff from Turfway’s winter meet and has seemed to taken a liking to the polytrack. He does meet much easier foes this time out and should like the cut back in distance from a mile in his last. He also has some pretty solid works as of late. My third and fourth selections are the two Greg Foley entries 1 and 1A. It seems like a crime to get both Prado and Gomez on one ticket. I suspect the one entry to be to the favorite but if they are close to 5/1 I may be putting a ticket on them.

Selections: 2-3-1A-1

Race 5- Allowance 54K 1X One Mile on the Turf

With an 80% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow in Lexington I suspect this may get taken off the turf. If that happens my selections could change. The other factor is the morning line favorite is the AE 12 Niagara Causeway. If he runs I suspect him to be a big favorite. But that is very open in the air. Besides that my number one selection is the Thomas Amoss entry Kelvington. The always reliable Robby Albarado gets the ride. I know he has not looked good at the allowance ranks but has performed well versus claimers. However I feel this five year old gelding is hitting stride now coming from the Fairgrounds and if this stays on the turf I really like this horse at a good price. He also has put up very nice speed figures compared to the rest of the field. Fongtastic is shipping from the Fairgrounds where he ran against similar allowance company. This gelding always seems to be there at the end but can’t win. Maybe today is his day.

Selections: 1-4-11-7

Main Track Selections: 8-7-5-9

Race 6- Maiden 50K Seven Furlongs

This is a wide open maiden affair and I am going to look for some price here. It’s A Danzig is trained by Rebecca Maker and Larry Melancon gets the mount. In two career races he has finished second twice on the dirt and turf in Illinois. He has had two nice bullet works of 1:13 going six furlongs and :58 going five furlongs. He is coming off a seven month layoff which is always scary but maybe Maker has something with this horse. I know I am hoping she has something. My second selection will probably go off as the favorite, Royal War Academy. Royal War Academy has already race ten times and has finished in the money five of ten times. He just can’t seem to get the right trip to break his maiden. He raced in the Transylvania GIII Stakes a couple weeks ago at Keeneland and didn’t perform that poorly. If he gets the right trip from Albarado this Jaime Sanders trained colt should finally break his maiden, finally.

Selections: 6-11-12-4

Race 7- Allowance 54K n2L About Seven Furlongs

In Quasicobra’s second career start he handily beat a 50K maiden field at Keeneland earlier this month. This was coming off an eight month. Biacone trains Quasicobra and Leparoux gets the ride. He ran this same seven furlongs in an easy 1:25 and I expect him to romp the field today. I will be using him as my single in the late pick four and late pick three. The only thing that scares me is rain and I don’t know why I am scared. I don’t think I need to talk about my other selections but I probably should do some triactors and exactors for Canadian fans. Firerock Base broke his maiden his second time out on this same Keeneland course going seven furlongs. He goes the extra 50 or so yards today and should perform well on the same track. Torini gets Edgar Prado and that is always a good reason to use a horse in exotics. By the way this meet Prado is getting in the money at an above 50% clip.

Selections: 6-5-12-10

Race 8- Bewitch Stakes GIII Mile and One Half on the Turf

I will be interested to see if they keep this race on the turf. I would be surprised if they take it off but we will only see. With that I will already assume the track is soft to yielding so that will factor in my selections. But you know what nothing should matter in this race because Pletcher plus Velazquez plus a graded stakes equals victory, especially when their horse is by far the best in the field. This five year old mare is already one for two in graded stakes this year and has shown that he can run in the slop incase this race gets taken off the turf. Single me up here and by the way this late pick three and pick four could be cheap with a very small payoff.

Selections: 7-5- WAY BACK 1-3

Main Track Selections: 7-3-4-5

Race 9- Claiming 30K n2L Mile and One Sixteenth

Fairly wide open closing race to close Keeneland out today. Bird Charm is dropping down to a 50K open claimer where he performed decently. He hasn’t ever done great at this distance but has run well, if that makes any sense at all. Alonso Quinonez gets the ride and is still looking for his first win this spring at Keeneland and hopefully he can get on here. Talent Scout gets Rafael Bejarano aboard and runs on the polytrack for only the second time in his career and in his one start he finished two lengths off the pace versus allowance company. This looks to be a much easier field and the switch from turf to polytrack may do this four year old colt well. I really don’t like much any other horse in this race so I can’t tell you much anything else. One interesting horse to watch is Rove who is ridden by Miguel Mena and who broke his maiden in March at Turfway in his twelfth career start by get this 20 lengths. Yes 20 lengths. Maybe he was racing donkeys, I don’t know.

Selections: 11-7-8-9

Race Four Pick 6- R4: 1,2,3

R5: 1,4,11 (Scratches may change this)

R6: 6,11,12

R7: 6

R8: 7

R9: 7,11

Total $1 Pick Six Ticket: $54 (Expect to change with scratches)

Race Six Pick 4: R6: All

R7: 6

R8: 7

R9: 7,11

Total $1 Pick Four Ticket: $24

Race Seven Pick 3: R7: 5,6

R8: 7

R9: All

Total $1 Pick Three Ticket: $24

Tuesday Night Lock

2007-04-24T15:40:00.000-05:00

After a light Monday night where I didn't really have a lock I am back for more today where my two favorite playoff series take place on TNT. I am going to steer clear of the Raptors vs Nets game because it is on NBATV but I would say take the under of 194 if you had to pick. My lock tonight focuses on the early bout between the Bulls and Heat. I luve the Bulls -3.5 because I hate whiners. And if the Heat are anything besides old and crappy it is whiners. The Bulls at home in the playoffs equals easy money only giving 3.5.

By the way Kobe will rain tonight but I'm thinking Suns in four or five unfortunately. If the Lakers had anything besides Kobe we actually might get a series. And oh yeah that whole defense thing.

Lock Record: 4-5

Sunday Afternoon Lock

2007-04-22T09:48:00.000-05:00

Sorry I didn't get my NBA Playoff locks out to you yesterday. It was a busy day. And that super in race 9 at Keeneland, woulda coulda shoulda. I did hit the nice exacta though. Haddie Be Good ran a good race, but Forest Code was just too good for him.

Today in honor of the beautiful weather outside and it is NBA Playoff Sunday you will be getting two, yes two locks of the day.

My first lock is the matinée affair between the Lakers and Suns. The Lakers are getting 10.5 which I see as an obscene amount when you have Kobe Bryant on your team. If he comes out and plays today they will not lose by more then 10. No way.

My second lock of the day is the over of 215 in the nightcap between Golden State and Dallas. A lot of people are saying the Mavs don't know how to beat the Warriors, or they are just a bad match up. Well after the Mavs put up 120 tonight a lot of people will be thinking differently.

Lock Record: 3-4

Keeneland 4.21 Picks

2007-04-21T11:26:00.000-05:00

Here are my selections for Keeneland on Lexington Stakes day. It is suppose to be a beautiful day with a high of 73 and bright sunshine. I cannot wait, summer is COMING!!!!

Race 1 Starter Allowance 26K Mile and Three Sixteenths

Small five horse field for the first at Keeneland today. I’m going with the biggest long shot on the program in Handsome Fee. She ran six races on the polytrack at Turfway Park’s winter meet and either fired or didn’t finishing in the top three thrice times and coming in sixth or worse thrice times. I think this gelding may fire today and may take home a good price. This is clearly a price play for me though. The most impressive horse on the board to me is War Tracer. Garrett Gomez is aboard and this five year old won his last three races of the fall meet including a starter allowance at Keeneland in October. I don’t like seeing these mediocre type horses coming off long layoffs but considering his recent form War Tracer has every bit of a chance to take this easy field.

Selections: 2-3-1-6

Race 2 Maiden 50K Two Year Olds Four and One Half Furlongs

Two of the fillies entered in this race have already raced once in this Keeneland spring meet but I am steering clear of them. As always this is a race where you have to watch the board as the bettors have done fairly well with two year olds this meet. I’m going with Spin Move. Mark Casse trains and Robby Albarado gets the mount. Casse usually does a decent job with first time starters and the dam Body Moves already has one winner. My second selection is the Pletcher-Gomez combination with Brooke’s Valentine. This is a very well bred filly out of Fusaichi Pegasus and Jena Jena.

Selections: 1-5-4-2

Race 3 Claiming 25K Six Furlongs

No PP for this one so I am just going off the entries.

Selections: 8-3-1-2

Race 4 Allowance 58K Mile and an Eighth

There is no attractive horse in this race. I usually like horses that have run on the polytrack before but no one has. None of these horses are also any good on the turf so this race is an absolute crap shoot. Deputy Indy is the best bred horse and is dropping to a little easier race here. It’s always nice to see Leparoux taking the mount and the five year old is always there at the end. Maybe he can win this one. Barbican was a 2/1 favorite in his last race on April 7 at Keeneland and just got a terrible start. He has posted the best speed figures out of any horses in this race but has never run over a mile. If he has the stamina this could be the horse to beat. He also gets Gomez aboard.

Selections: 4-3-1-7

Race 5 Allowance 66K Mile and a Sixteenth (Turf)

Edgar Prado gets his first mount today and takes the class of the race with him in this pricey allowance affair. Prado gets Cosmonaut today and is coming off a four month layoff and a string of five grade one events where he finished fourth or fifth in every event. It’s going to be incredibly hard to beat this five year old and it’s tough to look away from him on the program. If there is one to look at that may go off at a decent price it is the Chilean bred Rio Mistico. Barclay Tagg traings this four year old colt that finished off last year going four for four in Chile in July. He had a strong five furlong workout a week ago and gets Cornelio Velasquez on board for a strong ride. The eight month layoff is scary and first time lasix is a bit scary too, but at the right price I will be playing Rio Mistico. Another intriguing horse in this race is Lord Carmen who gets the always reliable turf jockey Mark Guidry. Frank Kirby enter this six year old off a five month lay off but this horse loves when Guidry is aboard and can race from a stalking position or way off the pace. I would love to see this horse eat up a dead field

Selections: 5-1-3-7

Race 6 Maiden 50K Mile and an Eighth

It is tough to not look at Bill Mott and Edgar Prado who rides Counselled. An expensive three year old colt that came in second in his second race ever at Gulfstream going this distance on the turf. If he runs his best race he should easily beat this field. A horse Counselled beat in his last also in entered in this race, Chriscodey. That race was his first start and like most first starters he just didn’t fire. He raced in early April over this same polytrack but in the snow. I remember that day distinctly because you couldn’t see the race. The PP has the same problem only having his post position and where he finished. He still posted a nice speed figure and he gets blinkers today so I love this horse at the right price to win. I don’t like Kent Desormeaux much but maybe he can drive this colt to victory. Always watch out for the Pletcher-Gomez combo who put out Hawaii Calls. He is a second time starter and has trained beautifully coming into this race. If he runs wells it could be a duel between him and Counselled.

Selections: 8-4-9-2

Race 7 Giants Causeway 100K Stakes Five and a Half Furlongs (Turf)

This is the best betting race of the day with 12 fillies and mares entered on a turf sprint race. This is the third time I have said it in my selections but Pletcher-Gomez throw out another four year old filly in Forest Code. She came in second in her last 60K stakes at Santa Anita. Pletcher usually does fairly well with shippers and is obviously the best trainer at stakes races in this era. Haddie Be Good lost by only a half length in her last and has won a turf sprint stakes before at the Meadowlands. If she gets a decent pace to run after Haddie Be Good and Javier Castellano could challenge for a win. South Necking shipped from Argentina in the summer and won a nice allowance race at Bay Meadows in March by two lengths. She has only raced twice on the turf in Argentina but didn’t race poorly. Pletcher trains this four year old filly so obviously he knows what he is doing but this is a precarious position considering on nice this filly has looked on the dirt in the US.

Selections: 11-9-6-7

Race 8 Allowance 54K Seven Furlongs

No PP = going solely off entry program.

Selections: 3-9-5-8

Race 9 Coolmore Lexington GII Stakes Mile and a Sixteenth

In this biggest stakes of the day and the last chance t get into the Kentucky Derby the Lexington is wide open this year. I’m looking back at the Bluegrass from last week and going with the same angle I took Dominican last week. Joe Got Even has taken a real liking to the polytrack and has finished in the money in all fives races over the polytrack. In his last he lost to Hard Spun and Sedgefield at Turfway Park in the Lane’s End GII Stakes. If this horse can improve even a little on that effort he could take down this much easier field. He also had a bit of a interesting trip in the Lane’s End that probably cost him some ground. Trainer Patrick Biacone who has been hot recently ships Belgravia from the Left Coast for the Lexington and gets Leparoux aboard. He was the favorite in the Hollywood Futurity before losing to the likes of Stormello and Liquidity. He also had a terrible trip in his race but does like the polytrack. My intriguing option of the race is Boogiemanball. He is coming off a long layoff for Niall O’Callaghan and seemed to like the polytrack at Woodbine. He has only raced twice both under six furlongs so a mile and a sixteenth might be much but I just feel this horse may be able to run it.

Selections: 4-8-2-7

Race 10 Maiden 50K Mile and an Eighth

Another wide open maiden at Keeneland. I am leaning towards to hard luck colt that just can’t seem to break his maiden Storming Marine. He seems to like the polytrack at Keeneland racing twice very gamely. He also seems to be rounding into shape and comes to my favorite day in the Keeneland meet so far the snow day. Kettle Hill comes out of the same race as Storming Marine and finished second in it. He also loves the polytrack and likes coming from the back which seems to be a good thing this spring at Keeneland. Don’t Forget Mama is running for the hot McPeek barn and should improve in his second career start.

Selections: 2-8-3-4

YOU ROCK BURLYMON

2007-04-18T22:14:00.000-05:00

My boy gets it done!!!

Wednesday Night Lock

2007-04-18T18:00:00.000-05:00

After a terrible day of racing but a good night last night, I move to 2-4 on my locks. On to my lock for today. As made aware by the Dan Patrick Show this afternoon on ESPN Radio the Timberwolves host the league worse Memphis Grizzlies. The T-Wolves have a lottery pick and if that lottery pick is in the top ten they get to hold on to it and it does not have to be traded to whom I forget. If they lose they would have I believe the seventh worse record in the NBA guaranteeing them a top ten pick in the lottery. Vegas and bettors have seemed to figure this out moving the line from Minnesota -2.5 to now Memphis being a 3 point favorite. I will be taking the Grizzlies at -3 and be making nice cash. You should join along. KG probably will bet on it too since he isn't even playing with a mysterious injury no one knows of. Tonight in baseball you are getting +200 on the Twinkies at Seattle vs Felix Hernandez. Take the Twinkies, Hernandez is good but the Twinkies just know how to win.

Keeneland 4.18 Picks

2007-04-18T09:11:00.000-05:00

Couple of races to look at and a couple tickets to play.

Race 3- Six Furlongs Optional Claimer 80K N2X for 3 Year Olds

The third leads us to a small six horse field which I find very difficult to find a winner. I am leaning away from the 8/5 morning line favorite Weather Warning because he does not deserve an 8/5 price. My decision then becomes between Quietly Mine and Native Ruler. Both are coming off layoffs of over four months, returning from GIII stakes races, and cutting back distances from over a mile to six furlongs. I am going to go with Quietly Mine because of the jockey/trainer connection of Garrett Gomez and Christophe Clement. He is one for one at Keeneland winning a 52K allowance last fall going six furlongs. Native Ruler gets Cornelio Velasquez on board and posted the best speed figures at a sprint distance between his foes. The three year old is also working out well in advanced for this sprint.

Selections: 2-4-3-6

Race 5- Six Furlongs Maiden 50K for 3 Year Old Fillies

This is a very difficult race to handicap. Out of 12 fillies only three have raced before and usually in maidens I like horses that have seen the track before. Therefore I am going with Simply Divine. Kent Desormeaux rides the filly today. She has raced twice, once on the dirt and once on the polytrack, finishing second and third respectively. The only thing that frightens me about her is she raced on the lead in both races and as many Keeneland fans know speed horses do TERRIBLE on the lead at Keeneland. My second choice is Cute Cakes a filly out of Lemon Drop Kid and Cattitude who gets the always reliable Edgar Prado aboard and has trained very well in advanced by Neil Howard. It’s hard to look past the Biacone and Leparoux combination of Im Classic Quality a $220K filly purchased from the Keeneland fall sale in 2004. She is out of Elusive Quality and Swearingen.

Selections: 5-7-4-8

Race 6- Six and One Half Furlongs Allowance 58K N2X for 4 Year Olds and Upward

No one stands out in this race at all. I’m going with a semi long shot in Forest Phantom who has 8/1 morning line odds. James Theriot gets the ride and Thomas Amoss trains the four year old gelding. Forest Phantom is a nice closer that loves the sprint and performed strong in his first try over the polytrack on April 7 at Keeneland finishing second by a nose in this same race. He cuts it back from seven furlongs today and should get a good ride from the second post position. My second selection is a lightly raced four year old (three races lifetime) out of Cat Thief and Five Star Night, Five Star Thief. The gelding is coming off a seven month layoff and has never tried the polytrack but raced really well in New York last summer winning OC 75K at Belmont. One of my favorite riders Rafael Bejarano gets the mount and that is always a good thing. It’s tough to look away from a horse that has won two of two and both over the artificial surface at Turfway Park in March and that is Broad Spectrum. This gelding could sneak into the picture.

Selections: 2-4-3-11

Race 7- One Mile and a Sixteenth (Turf) Allowance 62K N3X for 4 Year Olds and Upward

It’s hard to look away from the morning line favorite in this one, Outperformance. Trainer Richard Violette gives reliable rider Javier Castellano the mount. In the colts last race at Churchill Downs fall meet he raced in a 150K stakes and finished fourth by a half length, this despite being steadied three times around the 1/16 pole. He was also the prohibitive favorite in that race. Graham Motion trains Salinja my second selection and is ridden by John Velazquez. This five year old raced at Great Britain before being shipped to Gulfstream in February. He finished a close second and third in two allowance races in the meet. The gelding out of Boundary and Lasha taken a liking to the firmer American turf and should perform well today. If the price is right I may take this horse over Outperformance. One of Outperformances foes in the 150K stakes who actually finished ahead of him is my third selection. Kingship a four year old colt gets Robby Albarado aboard and only finished third by a neck in that race however getting a much better trip then Outperformance. He comes in at 7/2 and love the mile and a sixteenth distance.

Selections: 2-3-6-8

Race 8- Doubledogdare GIII Stakes

Let me first say this, favorites have done absolutely awful in graded stakes this spring at Keeneland. Just look at last Saturday with Street Sense, Midnight Lute, and Showing Up. Only Street Sense finished in the money. But like my locks I’m sticking to my guns and going with who should be the prohibitive favorite come post time the five year old mare Asi Siempre. She finished second in the Breeders Cup Distaff and won the Spinster GI last fall at Keeneland. She is trained by the Biacone and gets Gomez the mount, despite Leparoux being the usual jockey. He moves Pyramid Love. There is not much to say about Asi Siempre besides she is easily the best and classiest filly or mare in this field. Pyramid Love is my second selection partially because Leparoux seems to have picked this four year old filly over Asi Siempre. I am not sure though because Biacone trains both and might have asked. Pyramid Love has taken a loving to the polytrack at Keeneland and is two for two over it at this distance. She is coming off a layoff from last October at Keeneland but has solid works coming into this graded affair. At the right price I may play Pyramid Love over Asi Siempre, which if my sense tell me I could get a nice price compared to the favorite.

Selections: 5-1-7-3

Race 9- Allowance 54K N1X for Fillies & Mares 4 Years Old and Upward

Just another very difficult race to handicap on the Keeneland card to end the day. I’m intrigued by two horses in this race, Polysheba and Lordly. Polysheba is a Great Britain bred filly who raced in France last year before shipping to the Fairground this February. She has always raced on the turf and gets the great Corey Nakatani. The four year old is trained by Michael Stidham and may improve with blinkers today. As for the polytrack I always like turf to polytrack racers and for some reason I especially like European shippers, no reason, just my feelings. Lordly is a lightly raced four year old filly out of Victory Gallop and Lordy Lordy. The connections seem to want her to be a good turf horse racing her four times on the turf. In her other two appearances which were on Keeneland’s polytrack she came in first to break her maiden as a 30-1 long shot and came in third in her next race which was originally scheduled for the turf. Her speed numbers are extremely better on the polytrack so maybe trainer Philip Oliver has figured out to run her on the polytrack. Rafael Bejarano gets the mount and that is why she is going to be my number one selection. Ken McPeek brings in My Own Story from Gulfstream who has raced eight of her nine races on the turf. She seems to like the long distance finishing a strong fourth in her last going a mile and a half. She also posed her best speed figure in her last going the long distance so she may improve for a great finish.

Selections: 5-1-9-8

Lets try a pick six today:

Race Four Pick Six Ticket R4: 1,6

R5: 5

R6: 2,4

R7: 2,3

R8: 5

R9: 1,5,9

Total $1 Ticket = $36 (CHEAP!!!)

Race Five Pick Three Ticket R5: All

R6: 2,4

R7: 2,3

Total $1 Ticket = $48 (Expensive)

Race Six Pick Four Ticket R6: 2,4

R7: 2,3,6

R8: 1,5

R9: 5,8,9

Total $1 Ticket = $36

Race Seven Pick Three Ticket R7: 2,3,6

R8: 5

R9: All

Total $1 Ticket = $33

Tuesday Night Lock

2007-04-17T16:58:00.000-05:00

In lighter news from the horrific events that occurred in Blacksburg, Virginia yesterday it's time for a long overdue lock. Or in reader's cases "Bet Against Brett Because He Is Always Wrong LOCK." Well that is up to you. Tonight I will go with the craziest line move in the NBA, the Washington Wizards opened up 5.5 points favorites versus Orlando and now Orlando is 3.5 point favorites. So I will go with what everyone else is going with and take Orlando -3.5. If you want a secondary MLB pick I love the Indians at +135 over the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. I like Westbrook on the mound in the nasty conditions up in New York.

Thoughts & Prayers With Va Tech

2007-04-17T15:21:00.000-05:00

My thoughts and prayers are with the Hokie Nation.

I think readers know where to go to find more information on this.

More posts to come today and Keeneland picks tomorrow, but for now I pray for Va Tech and the families of the students and faculty that are not with us now.

Final Derby Prep Weekend Is Upon Us

2007-04-14T10:00:00.000-05:00

The final weekend of Derby preps brings us two graded stakes: GI Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and GII Arkansas Derby. The former being at Keeneland and the other at Oaklawn Park. The current Kentucky Derby favorite at 6/1 is Curlin and he is racing in the Arkansas Derby versus a relatively easy field. In the Bluegrass the two big time favorites and foes are Street Sense(pictured) at 4/5 and Great Hunter at 9/5 morning line. Both have beaten each other and both have lost to Circular Quay who is training up to the Derby.

Now onto the NTRA Pick Four/Premier Pick Four which has gotten no publicity. I don't think we will get any guaranteed pool but we still may get some nice payoffs, not quite as good as last years though. The races are as follows in order: Commonwealth Breeders' Cup Stakes GII at Keeneland, Toyota Blue Grass, Instant Racing Breeders' Cup Stakes, and finally the Arkansas Derby. By the way just to warn handicappers it looks like it is going to be raining all day at Keeneland, a constant steady rain.

Commonwealth Breeders' Cup Stakes (Race 8 @ Keeneland)

Out of all four races this race probably will bring the greatest price or at least on paper looks to. It is a very wide open field with the morning line favorite being at 6/1. My top pick in this race is Steel Light an Irish bred gelding out of Stravinsky trained by Christophe Clement. The horse shipped out of Ireland in 2004 and didn't race till April of 2005. He since has raced seven races in the states and has never finished out of the money with three wins. He came off a lay off this year at Gulfstream in the Appleton Handicap and finished in second by a neck to Silver Tree, and this is despite having anything but a nice trip. Today he gets my favorite jockey, Garrett Gomez and he should get a decent pace to close off of. I'd be surprised if he is anywhere close to the 6/1 odds that he is listed at. I expect more of a 3/1 final price. The main detractor is this horse has never raced only race on the dirt once in the slop and finished third by only a half length but he still posted a strong speed figure, and he has shown a liking to rain. The two supposed favorites of this race are both shippers out of the Left Coast, Midnight Lute and Silent Name. Midnight Lute is a lightly raced four year old colt out of Real quiet and is trained by Bob Baffert and Edgar Prado is taking the mount. Last fall at Keeneland Midnight Lute ran one of the great races I have seen run at the new Keeneland. In the Perryville GIII Stakes at the same seven furlongs being run today Midnight Lute made a daring seven wide trip and drew off winning by nearly five lengths. The colt has since raced at longer distances and performed well finishing in second by a nose and fourth by two lengths. The cut back in distance today should do him well. Silent Name is a Japanese bred horse trained by Gary Mendella. Corey Nakatani gets the ride today. This horse has not raced shorter then a mile in the states and has never raced on the dirt or poly track. He can come off the pace or take the lead like he did in the Breeders’ Cup Mile in November. This is the horses first meeting versus grade two company since last April where he won the Arcadia Handicap. Look for him to improve versus easier foes. My final horse to watch out for is River City Rebel with Julien Leparoux aboard. In the geldings first race off a five month layoff he won an optional claimer of 50K by six lengths at Aqueduct. If he can put together an equal performance this gelding could be scary.

Selections: 4-7-8-2

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Race 9 @ Keeneland)

On paper this really looks like a two horse race between Street Sense and Great Hunter. Street Sense is as you remember the horse that blew away the Breeders Cup Juvenile Field and won by 10 lengths. In his first start back off a layoff for trainer Carl Nafzger he won the Tampa Derby by a nose over Any Given Saturday. Calvin Borel gets up today and by the way who wouldn’t want to see Borel win a Kentucky Derby? Great Hunter is the second favorite and ran a great race in the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. Remember before the Breeders Cup, Great Hunter beat Street Sense by three lengths at this track in the Breeders Futurity. This race is at a mile and an eighth. If I had to pick between one of them I would go with Great Hunter. However my numero uno selection is Dominican. This is a lightly raced gelding out of El Corredor. Rafael Bejarano rides him today and last month in the Rushaway at Turfway Park won by five lengths in a great stalking trip. His only two wins have come on the polytrack and for some reason if this horse gets a nice trip he will win.

Selections: 2-7-4-6

Instant Racing Breeders’ Cup Stakes (Race 10 @ Oaklawn Park)

This is the toughest race to handicap for me. A lot of these horses are racing in a stakes race and they just don’t seem to belong. I’m going to go with the Pletcher entry for my first selection, Wellofaprize. Pletcher picked up training this horse from Isaac Frederick after a stakes race in November where Wellofaprize got a horrible trip. This filly has trained with outstanding workouts up to this race. John Velazquez gets the mount today and should have this filly in a nice position coming to the early first turn. My second selection is the Steven Asmussen entry of Nice Inheritance. She is coming from Sunland Park where she had no kick in a 200K stakes race. Here she cuts it back to a mile where she won her last 50K stakes at Sunland. With a decent position around the first turn this filly could easily win this race. The only other girl I like in this race is the morning line favorite Angel Smoke. She has easily been the most consistent performer of the group and in her last won by eight lengths at Oaklawn Park in a 50K optional claimer. Martinez gets the mount again today and the horse cuts it back to a mile. Tough post position but maybe Martinez can get her in good position.

Selections: 6-5-8-10

Arkansas Derby (Race 11 @ Oaklawn Park)

Curlin is the prohibitive favorite in the race and if he goes off at anywhere close too the 7/5 morning line odds I would be very surprised. Asmussen trains the colt and Robby Albarado gets the mount. He has only raced twice in his life winning his maiden by 13 lengths and the Rebel GIII at Oaklawn Park by 5 ¼ lengths. The only other horse that scares me is Deadly Dealer, a Pletcher trained colt with Velazquez getting aboard. The ten post won’t be as difficult at a mile and an eighth either. Deadly Dealer has only raced three times in his career and has never raced over 7 ½ furlongs and has never raced in anything about the 46K allowance for non-winners of anything other then a maiden. And he didn’t even go off as the favorite in that. He did win by seven lengths though and posted a very nice Beyer speed figure of 104. But remember that came at 7 ½ furlongs. I’m leaning towards using him on my pick four ticket but the single of Curlin would take a lot off the cost. So I won’t use him.

Selections: 2-10-1-4

Premier Pick Four Ticket

Race 8: 2,4,7,8,10

Race 9: 2,4,7

Race 10: 5,6,8

Race 11: 2

Total $1 Ticket = $45

Happy Friday Lock

2007-04-13T16:31:00.000-05:00

Lets start off by saying the picture is in honor of the absence of Locke in this weeks LOST episode. However still a great episode. As for my lock tonight, tough decision. Now I have figured out my problem with this, bet on games not on television. I am 1-0 with games not on TV and 0-4 with games on TV. I know, disgusting, tell me about it. But I am going to fight my terribleness. Yes fight! That's right TWO count them ONE, TWO lockes tonight and they are both NBA games on that great network that babies are being named after.

No analysis, just digs me a bigger grave.

Under of 186.5 in the early Miami vs Pacers game.
Why I do this, for the love of Kobe. Lakers -10.5 @ Phoenix. Kobe punches Raja. Phil quits.

Keeneland 4.12 Preview

2007-04-12T11:29:00.000-05:00

Here are races four through nine.

Race 4

Two horse race in this maiden 50K for fillies three years of age. The two fillies are Over Under an Upcoming Story who have each raced once in their lives.. This is a very tough decision but I am going to go with the California shipper in Upcoming Story who is the 2/1 M/L favorite compared to Over Under being at 3/1. I like how Upcoming Story had a great final kick and finished second by only a neck in his first race at Santa Anita. The always respectable Biacone and Leparoux combo will try to take over the polytrack today. Over Under is a filly trained by Dallas Stewart and has the always reliable John Velazquez aboard today. Very tough decision but I am going with Biacone on this one. My third selection I am going with a little price in the Eddie Kenneally trained filly Certainly A Lady ridden by Cornelio Velasquez. Kenneally seems to know what he is doing this spring at Keeneland as he had two winners yesterday.

Selections: 6-5-10-11

Race 5

The fifth brings us another difficult race to handicap with allowance non-winners of two besides maiden and claimers for three year olds. Easily the most challenged horse in the field is French Transition at M/L odds of 3-1. Another Biacone trained horse ridden by the great Garrett Gomez. After breaking his maiden on the turf Biacone tried him on the dirt in the Robert Lewis GII Stakes where he finished 5^th by seven lengths and the likes of Great Hunter. He also ran in the Breeders Futurity and finished far back versus Kentucky Derby hopefuls Great Hunter again, Street Sense, and Circular Quay. French Transition seems to like to come off the pace so I don’t know how this race will set up for him but we will see. Todd Pletcher also has an entry in this race in Distorted Reality. He broke his maiden on the turf at Gulfstream in early March at this same distance on the turf. John Velazquez returns and it seems like blinkers really helped this horse last time and should help again. Rafael Bejarno takes the Fairgrounds shipper Mast Trick who has only raced one in his life and won by three lengths in a maiden 47K. He stretches is out today to 1 1/16 mile from 5 ½ furlongs. He seems poised to take on the extra distance though. The one common aspect of these three horses and many in this race are they like to come off the pace, except for Rahystrada. Mark Guidry gets the ride today and should put this horse on the lead. He likes being up front and with absolutely no speed in this race today he should go right to the lead. If he does he could easily steal this race wire to wire. This is a very difficult race to pick and my picks could change based on odds. I will update you on this late but for now I am going to go with Mast Trick.

Selections: 5-4-1-10

Quick Preview of the rest of the races

Race 6

I think He Loves Me Not will finally win her second race, and she does well off the pace where there is a lot of speed in this race. Louisville Sam had an impressive race off a layoff and like the polytrack; he will be my second selection.

Selections: 11-8-4-6

Race 7

Patriot Act raced versus graded stakes company in his last two races and finished second each time. Albarado gets the ride and this horse looks like a great favorite. Wood Be Willing raced against strong allowance company in Gulfstream earlier this year and finished respectable in each position. A little easier ride here and he should be in the money.

Selections: 1-9-5-7

Race 8- Stonerside Beaumont GII

Silverinyourpocket raced GIII company last out at a mile and was the 2/1 favorite but got a terrible trip five wide and finished fifth at Turfway Park. She takes it down to seven furlongs today and with a nice trip from Bejarano she could get a nice price and nice win. The Leparoux and Biacone combination put out Baroness Thatcher who raced versus GI company the last two races and she came in fourth and a close second. She faces much easier company this time and cuts it back to seven furlongs at Keeneland where last fall she broke her maiden at the same distance by five lengths. Baroness Thatcher is by far the better horse but I think I can get a better price with Silverinyourpocket.

Selections: 4-5-6-7

Race 9

Haunted Treasure drops to the claiming ranks after failing in some allowance races. He likes the shorter track of 6 ½ furlongs and seems to do well on the polytrack. Phil Treator gets the leg up today. C.G’s Striker also moves to the claiming ranks, adds blinkers today, and may do well from the rail on this sprint race.

Selections: 8-1-6-7

Race 4 Pick Three: R4: 5,6
R5: 1,4,5,10
R6: 4,8,11
Total $1 = $24

Race 4 Pick Six: R4: 5,6
R5: 1,4,5
R6: 8,11
R7: 1
R8: 4,5
R9: 1,8
Total $1 Ticket = $48

Race 6 Pick Four: R6: 8,11
R7: 1
R8: 4,5
R9: 1,5,6,7,8,11
Total $1 Ticket = $24

Race 7 Pick Three: R7: 1,5,9
R8: 4,5
R9: 1,6,7,8
Total $1 Ticket = $24

Late Daily Double: R8: 4,5
R9: 1,3,6,7,8,11
Total $2 Ticket = $24

There ya go kids. I will have a lock for you later tonight, and maybe a little on Mr. Imus and all the media of the week.

Update (3:52 ET): A nice little 61.90 pick three to start the day off and a new Keeneland polytrack record for six furlongs on a come from way back in the pack (dead last) victory for Robby Albarado and He Loves Me Not. Nice job Robby. Oh and I am halfway through the pick six.

That's Right There Is Your Late Pick Three

2007-04-11T16:20:00.000-05:00

$320.30 folks. Makes up for that 1-4 locks. Just wanted to aware you guys. Be back later tonight with more.

Oh and thanks Mr. Prado having a very nice trip on Mary Delaney in the GII victory and my single.

Keeneland 4.11 Preview

2007-04-11T10:07:00.000-05:00

Before I get to my selections four new jockeys make their way to Keeneland for this short spring meet: Calvin Borel, Corey Nakatani (pictured), John Velazquez, and Mark Guidry.

Feast on the picks.

Race 4

In the fourth we have an allowance of 54K and non-winners of anything other than maiden or claiming for fillies three years of age. This is an intriguing race to me with a lot of options. I’m leaning towards Quiet Action who gets the services of Julien Leparoux. This filly is out of Forest Wildcat and is shipping from the fall meet at Woodbine where he performed admirably on the turf. She broke her maiden on the turf at six furlongs in 1:11 and then was race in a mile GIII stakes where he came in second by ¾ of a length. Then trainer Mark Casse moved her to the polytrack for two stakes and she came in second and a far back sixth. She has only one official workout since at five furlongs but Casse knows what he is doing when returning horses from layoffs winning at an 18% clip. My second selection is Whisper To Me with Cornelio Velasquez. He’s shipping from the Fairgrounds where he couldn’t get that first win outside her maiden victory. She is out of my favorite Kentucky Derby winner and maybe favorite horse of all time in Thunder Gulch and is a deep closer that has a strong closing kick. In her last she came from 16 lengths back to finish third by 3 lengths. My third selection is Kenneth McPeek’s entry of Nola Star who is moving to the turf for the first time who is most recognized for being 4-1 last summer in the Arlington Breeder’s Cup Classic but finished fifth.

Selections: 5-1-8-3

Race 5

The fifth brings us more girls going for their maiden for 50k. I’m going to go with the 10-1 M/L filly who has already finished first in a race but was placed back to third due to “drifting in” New York Dixie. She won on March 15 at the Fairgrounds and has since posted some nice workouts at Keeneland. If she can correlate her race to the polytrack and go off anywhere near 10/1 I love this filly. By the way she is a deep closer, which kind of scares me on the polytrack but oh well and Albarado gets the mount. It’s tough to not look at Pletcher’s entry Sarah’s Prize who gets John Velazquez aboard. In the last two races the she has come in second by less then a length against what seems to be stronger company and one of those races was at Keeneland last fall. My last selection is the Biacone and Leparoux combination on Sun Sheika. She has race twice on the polytrack at Turf Paradise against lesser foes but with Leparoux aboard. If this filly can get out to an easy lead she may stick around to be somewhere in the money.

Selections: 7-4-9-10

Race 8- Vinery Madison GII

The GII event is for fillies and mares at seven furlongs for 200K. At 9/2 I think you are getting a great price on Mary Delaney. You are also getting one of the best jockeys in the US in Edgar Prado. This filly race in Great Britain early last year and showed she can have success in the states late last year as well. She ahs posted the best speed figures and has run great on the polytrack. I also think she can get a easy lead versus these competitors today. If she is anywhere over 2-1, I love her and especially as a single play. My second selection is the four year old filly right outside Mary Delaney, Ginger Punch. Rafael Bejarno gets the services today. She has only raced six times in her life and is two for three from seven furlongs, both wins being by over six lengths which is most impressive and both times Bejarano was aboard. She is coming off a long layoff and I am not a fan of horses off layoffs but Frankel does hit at a 24% clip. So you never know.

Selections: 5-6-4-2

Race Four Pick Three: R4: 1,5

R5: 4,7,10

R6: 2,3

Total $1 Ticket Amount: $12

Race Seven Pick Three: R7: All

R8: 5

R9: 1,9,11

Total $1 Ticket Amount: $27

Wednesday Morning Coffee & Donuts

2007-04-11T08:36:00.000-05:00

I don't have much for you guys this morning. I'll be posting previews to three Keeneland races today and will have some other posts throughout the day. Jenks' arm and Pods' head costs me the lock last night. What a terrible game for White Sox fans. Maybe if your lucky you might get an American Idol post today.

Tuesday Night Lock

2007-04-10T17:32:00.000-05:00

The lock worked one night so why wouldn't it work again. I'm going to stick with TV tonight and take the White Sox who are -110 at Oakland. The game is on WGN and starts at 10:05 ET. Garland is on the mound for the Sox and that is the may reason I like them. He had a decent start in his debut but goes up against Chad Gaudin tonight and in a pitcher friendly ballpark I love Garland. I think the Sox can once again grind out some runs like they did last night and win. You can go against me but you know I can put up a W.

Lock Record: 1-3

Tuesday Morning Coffee & Donuts

2007-04-10T08:13:00.000-05:00

Your Tuesday morning bits

I was right last night for once moving my lock record to an awesome 1-3. The Lakers lost to the Nuggets 115-111. Kobe had a three point attempt to tie the game with seven seconds left but missed. The Lakers are reeling but would much rather have the 7th playoff spot and face the Suns rather then the 6th and face the Spurs.
Rutgers women team is expected to have a press conference today in reference to Imus's comments on his show last Wednesday.
The inevitable seems to be in motion. Kevin Durant is heading to the NBA. Non-story move on.
Yesterdays reports seem to be true. Wichita St. coach Mark Turgeon is moving south to College Station, TX.
Bad news in St Louis, Carpenter is going on the 15 day DL. They will really need Reyes and Looper to continue to perform as well as they have the past week.
Indians vs Halos in Milwaukee. $10 tickets. Great ballpark. If you are in the vicinity go and watch two good teams in hat might be an empty stadium

Updates later today on anything and everything.

Monday Night Lock

2007-04-09T20:02:00.000-05:00

Now that I am 0-3 on my locks, not even including my Tiger lock no one cares about these posts anymore. So sad. But I will go on and give everyone money that bet against my picks. I am going to stay with the NBA, why because I am determined at seeing how poorly I can perform with the Association. I'll take the over of 215.5 in the Lakers vs Nuggets. If Kobe gets 50+ which he should and this doesn't go over despite Kobe having nearly 25% of the total points in the game I will give $1 to the first commenter or e-mailer to point it out. Just a little incentive to be on top of my terrible picks. If he scores 50 and it goes over everyone that reads this owes me $1.

The Imus Controversy

2007-04-09T17:53:00.000-05:00

Let me first state I am an avid Imus in the Morning viewer.

With that stated I obviously think what Imus and Bernard said was blatantly racist and uncalled for. There is no doubt about that. Now that the announcement that the show has been suspended on MSNBC TV for two weeks, which I don't know if that means much since he is on WFAN too which he probably gets more listeners through. But I do have a couple thoughts on the matter that I have not expressed through different blogs.

Why did Bernard not apologize today?
Like many people who are defending Imus or don't understand the controversy are saying why is Imus under so much fire yet musical artists of all sorts who can think before they sing and write lyrics get away with this all the time.
I am no racist what so ever but I am tired of Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson getting behind every racist comment made by anyone semi-famous and gaining publicity for it. I don't understand what they are trying to accomplish besides bring these in most cases mistakes to the fore front. Maybe one of their fans can tell me.
What is a two week suspension from MSNBC TV going to do? Lets say he is suspended from WFAN too, what is this going to do? Like he said this morning he does not need a welcome to Jesus, or however he phrased it moment. He has had time to reflect on it. I don't know what a suspension will do.

Lastly and perhaps my biggest point and question it is Monday, April 9. The racist and ignorant comments were made on Wednesday, April 5. Why wasn't everyone on top of him on Thursday or even Friday? Why didn't Sharpton and Jackson get on his case the next day? Did something spark them? If this is so important to guys like Sharpton and Jackson why isn't it put to the forefront last week when it happened? Did his apology on Friday get them riled up? I am very confused. Why didn't the 80+ newspaper columns that came out on the weekend come out on Wednesday? I don't remember Tuesday being the biggest news day in the world. There is just something weird about this that I think has something to do with the people that have power in the media.

Those are just my thoughts on the. I think I am going to leave it at that. If more newsworthy material comes out of this I may post my comments. But I already think it has been blown out of proportion so this probably doesn't help. Feel free to comment.

Monday Morning Coffee & Donuts

2007-04-09T06:47:00.000-05:00

Your Monday morning tidbits:

Zach Johnson won the Masters yesterday afternoon. Great final round 69 and he held off two big names in Goosen and Woods. Tiger just didn't look himself on Sunday. We saw a quick glimpse with the great second shot on 13 but he was just good from there on out paring in. He had his chances with the par 5 on 15 and a ten-footer on 16 but just couldn't close the gap. Great win by Johnson though.
I guess it's cold outside and it's snowing in April in places it shouldn't be. So there is talk of the Cleveland Indians vs. Orange County Angels game being moved to the Left Coast.
All Big 12 fans are happy, well except for Kansas fans. It seems like Julian Wright is leaning towards going to the draft. Hello top five pick.
The college basketball merry-go-round continues to turn. Reports have South Alabama coach John Pelphrey going to Arkansas and Wichita State coach Mark Turgeon meeting with Texas A&M officials this afternoon.
Lakers lose to the Suns and will probably meet them again for another seven game series dandy in the NBA
Be ready for a lengthy DL report from the MLB today. A lot of cold weather injuries it seems happened this first week in baseball. Most significantly Chris Carpenter's injury seems worse then first thought of by the Cardinals.
Don Imus apologized in length this morning for the remarks he made last Wednesday towards the Rutgers women's basketball team. I watch and listen to Imus daily and I know that he is a good person. This morning he was talking to all the new listeners and hopefully they got his message that the comment was wrong and stupid but in his heart he is a good person towards all people. The Imus Show blog is here.

Finally I would like to just say considering Tiger and the Masters. People say he was just another ordinary golfer on Sunday. Well he still shot a 72 on Sunday. And he still finished in a tie for second. That is no ordinary PGA Tour golfer to me. Yes he was not "Tiger-like" but he had a great tournament despite playing probably a C- game. Tiger is not an ordinary golfer and did not look it on Sunday.

Go Crazy Zach!

2007-04-08T17:52:00.000-05:00

Great job. I like to see the winner shoot in the 60's. Great win, go crazy Iowa. And my lock fails but my player to watch reigns supreme.

Weekend Lock!

2007-04-07T20:32:00.000-05:00

I will win this one. No need for explanation!!!

It Must Be Really Hard

2007-04-07T18:22:00.000-05:00

What a brutal day at Augusta! No red numbers going into Saturday.

Your final three pairing for tomorrow are Vaughn Taylor (+4) & Zach Johnson (+4), Padraig Harrington (+4) & Justin Rose (+3), and Stuart Appleby (+2) & Tiger Woods (+3).

After watching today I don't know how much worse these guys could play. How many 2-3 footers can these guys miss? I know the greens are difficult but still it is hard to watch. The man that putts the most consistent tomorrow should win this thing. Then you have Appleby on the 17th hitting a straight duck hook off the tee. He is so much better then that. He cleared his head after making triple though and made a nice par on 18.

On to my preview for tomorrow. I still believe Tiger will win this thing. In fact there is some crazy stat that the last person to win outside the final pairing was Nick Faldo in '93. Correct me if I am wrong on this. I think he'll go out there and there may be someone that birdies a couple early to get to +2 or +1 and get ahead of Tiger. They will soon falter along with everyone else as Tiger will probably coast to a two or three stroke victory shooting a 72 and finish +2. However I believe if he goes bogey, bogey on the final two holes again tomorrow he won't win. He has already done it twice and cannot do it again.

It will be a little warmer tomorrow with highs in the low 60's. These guys cannot complain about that. Winds are also suppose to calm down to 10-15 MPH which should make the course more playable, but the men at Augusta can make this course as hard as they want come Sunday with various pin placements and moving the tees far back.

My two sleepers tomorrow are Zach Johnson & Padraig Harrington. Both finished the last three holes at -1, so they have some confidence and momentum going into tomorrow which is most important. But still Tiger will come out on top and be crowned with his 5th, yes a five of those ugly jackets.

Talk to ya kids later and have fun watching that tournament that has some sort of tradition tomorrow.

Saturday Stakes Plays

2007-04-07T09:02:00.000-05:00

In a bit of a rush here because I need to get to the OTB which is an hour and a half away to get my bets in and then sit on the couch and watch White Sox baseball, horse racing and the Masters. I will grace you with a more detailed Weekend Blogiew later this afternoon. Here are some of my picks I'm looking to pursue today.

Aqueduct

Race 7 Pick Four: R7 : 1,2,4,5

R8: 2

R9 4,7,6

R10: 1

$1 Pick Four = $12

Keeneland

Race 4 Pick Three: R4: 3,4

R5: 2,12

R6:6,7,8

$1 Pick Three = $12

Race 7 Pick Three R7: 2,4

R8: 3,8

R9 : 2,5,8

$1 Pick Three = $12

Race 8 $2 WP R8: 3

Total = $4

Hawthorne

Race 7 Daily Double: R7: 5

R8 :1,4,6

$2 Daily Double = $6

Oaklawn

Race 8 $1 Exacta: R8: 5 w/ 1,7,8

Race 10 $2 WP: R10: 7

Total = $7

Santa Anita

Race 6 $2 WP: R6: 8

Total = $4

Sam Houston

Race 7 $ WP: R7: 4

Total = $4

Total = $61

My best bet of the day is Nobiz Like Shobiz. I just love this horse and I believe Tagg has him perfectly prepped for the Wood and Kentucky Derby.

My price play is Silver Express in the Lafayette Stakes which is Keeneland's 8th. Very nice three year old who is going back in distance to 7 furlongs and I believe he can get it done.

Masters Round 2 Recap & Preview of the Weekend

2007-04-06T19:01:00.000-05:00

After a difficult Thursday and Friday at Augusta three players are under par going into the weekend. Brett Wetterich and Tim Clark go into the weekend -2 and tied for the lead and right behind them is Vaughn Taylor at -1. After that four players are at even par including Vijay Singh.

Easily the most impressive golfer so far of the tourney is South African Tim Clark. He has shot two rounds of 71 with only two bogeys and one double bogey. He has had a modest 53 putts but has hit 85% of the fairways at Augusta. If he can continue that and lets say he shots 71 and 71 on the weekend he will win this major.

Some of the other major names around the leader board are as I mentioned before Vijay Singh. He has been all over the place in these first two rounds having eight bogeys and eight birdies. But he has kept damage to a minimum. If he can continue to grind out pars and throw some birdies in on the par 5's unfortunately he could win it. Geoff Ogilvy is at +1 and I think this man can make a major run come Sunday. He already has a major under his belt and is playing fantastic golf right now. If he can continue to strike his irons like he has the first two days and maybe a couple putts will fall I think he can easily take this.

Former Masters Champion Mike Weir is +3 and playing decent golf. I expect him to have a top ten finish this weekend. He is +3 along with Tiger, Paul Casey, and Luke Donald. I think obviously Tiger can but Casey and Donald could also make big runs tomorrow and maybe just win this damn thing. Casey shot a tourney best 68 today and is poised to be in the final group of a major on Sunday considering how consistent he is. Other notables are Philler Up and DL III are +5 and Adam Scott, Fred Couples, and Retief Goosen are all +8 and just made the cut.

Couple notables not to make the cut are Ernie Els, Sergio Garcia, hometown kid Charles Howell III, Colin Montgomerie, Darren Clarke, Thomas Bjorn, and no amateurs made the cut.

This all sets up for a great weekend especially if both Phil and Tiger can put some sort of score in the 60's up on Saturday. If both are in the Top Ten come Sunday and within 3-4 strokes of the lead we can expect a typical Augusta Sunday.

Some of the guys I expect to perform well this weekend based on history and how they are playing at the moment in no specific order.

Tim Clark for the reasons I mentioned above.
Padraig Harrington because he is a grinder and usually performs well in majors. He also shot a 68 on Friday and is at +1 going to Saturday.
Geoff Ogilvy for the reasons mentioned above.
Luke Donald is at +3 but can manage Augusta with the best of them I believe. He is not a long hitter but can putt and has some good short irons in his bag. If his putter gets going this weekend watch out, so far he has 61 putts, which is a lot.
Tiger Woods.
Paul Casey. I don't know about another 68, but if he plays like he did Friday he will win this thing.
Mike Weir. For some reason I like this lefty and I usually like former Master's Champs especially when they make it past the cut.
Mr. Mickelson. He has got the length but right now he doesn't have the swing. He did putt much better on Friday though and if he can figure out his swing he will be right there with Tiger come Sunday.
Last but certainly not least, Ian Poulter. He will come out with some great fashion statement this week that will make all the money men in Augusta cringe.

Who I think will win? Well obviously Tiger. But if not Tiger I am high on Casey and Donald both at +3 as well.

Friday Lock of the Night

2007-04-06T18:38:00.000-05:00

Last night was not good. Way too much defense showed up for the Spurs and the Suns just didn't how up until the last three minutes of the game.

I think I should start calling this the bet against me lock of the night. Oh well there is always a new day with a new play.

I'm going to stick with TV and go with ESPN's late night affair between the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks. The game is in Denver and Nowitzki is going to play. That means there will be a lot of scoring. Avery Johnson and Jason Terry don't mind playing this game at the up tempo pace Denver will play at. I expect a lot of scoring and this game will go over the modest 210 spread. I love the over of 210 in the Nuggets vs. Mavs.

Tiger Comes In With a 74, Six Off The Lead

2007-04-06T14:41:00.000-05:00

Tiger grinded out a 74 today and is currently tied for 19th at +3. He played a rough round today and at through today and the last two holes on Thursday he has eight bogeys in 20 holes, unheard of for Tiger.

He made a big birdie on the 17th and in fact birdied three holes on the back. Best shot of the day was the slice out of the trees on 18 to get it on the green for a 20 foot birdie putt. He ended up paring the hole.
I fully expect Tiger to come out fired up tomorrow and ready to make a run. He did look to favor his hand today after coming to a sudden stop on his downswing on 11 due to some animal in the trees. He will be fine though I think, but I will listen to his press conference.

I'll update you on all the other golfers after the round today. And by the way USA picks up coverage at 4:00 ET.

Keeneland Live Blog

2007-04-06T14:04:00.000-05:00

5:47 ET: Keeneland finally update. It is a whiteout at Keeneland and I can barely see the race from watching on television. They have a nice small layer of snow on the poly and this should be an interesting race.

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5:40 ET: Once again got murdered and am losing all hope after a nice early pick three. Oh well. There is always tomorrow. Now to the last a 50K maiden special. By the way there is a bit of snow in Lexington.

$2 Exacta Box 7-3-8-12
$3 WPS 7

Good luck

By the way funny thing --> Phil is crapping in his pants in the trees and may miss the cut. What a stunner.

I will give you guys picks on the big races on ESPN and NBC tomorrow and some of the other nice stakes races on tap for Saturday 4/07.

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God only knows what I as doing handicapping race eight. That was bad. But Funny Cide didn't win.

On to the 9th. Sedgefield(9) is the big favorite and will not get beaten. Maybe I can hit a nice tri though.

$2 Tri 9 w/all w/ 3,4,8 ... $27
$4 Exacta 9 w/ 3,7,8 ... $12
$4 DD 9 w/ 7,3,8,12 ... $16

Good luck. And yes it is snowing at Keeneland!

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4:28 ET: Once again lose a close trifecta. Her Majesty just couldn't close fast enough and finished second. My top pick Tessa Blue came in third. But I am still alive in the late pick four with Mostbeautifulstorm and Prado rode a great race in this one.

My plays for the eighth:

I'm going away from by top pick Spellbinder(8) and using my second pick Student Council(9) on top.

$3 Exacta 9 w/ 3,4,8... $9
$1 Tri 9 w/ all w/ 3,4,8 ... $27

If Funny Cide wins I'll will burn by Pick 4 ticket and post pictures. I don't think this horse can win but he will put up a good performance.

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3:55 ET: Well I won the pick three but I was sure I was going to stay alive in the pick six, but after looking at the photo the 7 did beat the 4 by a nose. Frustrating. Maybe I can pick up this late pick four. My pick three paid $66.70. So that is fine, but frustrating miss on the pick six. By the way my 5- Solrana got a terrible trip and was moved every which way but could not find any room between horses. I will like to see him when he runs again with a better trip, and no I cannot really fault Castellano with the ride.

My plays for the seventh are as follows:
$2 Exacta 12 w/ 2,7 ... $4
$3 Exacta Box 2,7,12 ... $12
$1 Tri 12 w/ all w/ 2,7... $22
$1 Tri 2,7 w/ all w/ 12... $22

I'll be putting $5 WPS on the 12 as well. May the wire be with you in the seventh.

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3:36 ET: I don't have much for you in race six. I'm going to do a $2 exacta box with the 4,5 just trying to get something back. Also will so $5 WPS on the 4 and $2 WPS on the 5.

Pick 3 Will Pays are actually more inviting then I thought. If anyone except the 2-Vague wins I will take home at least $50 on a $24 ticket. Not bad. Lets beat that favorite now.

*By the way Tiger just hit a great shot on 18 to the green from the woods. He has a birdie putt to grind through the day at +2 overall and right in the thick of things. I'll post about Augusta when Tiger is done.

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3:24 ET: Missed everything for you guys there. The 12 got a terrible trip and just could not find room at the end to finish fifth. The sixth didn't really show anything losing by about six lengths. Great ride for Leparoux on Time Squared and a very nice maiden victory for him. Expect a lot from this horse in the future. Bets on the sixth to come, and I am still alive in the pick six. And I won the pick three, but i need major long shots in this race to make any money with chalk in the last two races.

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3:15 ET: Got some exactors for race five you might be interested in.

$2 Exacta 6,12 w/ all... $22
$3 Exacta 2 w/ 6,12... $6

And if you have some extra dough from hitting the $3k early pick three here are my trifecta plays.

$1 Tri 6,12 w/ all w/ 1... $24
$1 Tri 1 w/ all w/ 6,12... $24

I'm also putting $2 across the board on the 6 and 12.

It's been a decent day so far. Got my price play in the third with Rendon Street paying $18.40, $8.40, and $4.60. Would have had the early pick three if Don Tiger would have taken the second, but he didn't show up.

May the wire with with you in race five.

Keeneland Is Open For Business

2007-04-06T09:07:00.000-05:00

A sunny and most chilly day in Lexington, Ky today with a high of 43. What should probably be the biggest news in Lexington today is being trumped by Billy Gillespie deciding to take the UK job over night. Oh well, I am still more then excited to see some good racing on the polytrack. Here are my selections.

Friday, April 6 Keeneland Picks

Race 1

First race of the year brings two year olds at a four and a half furlong distance for 50K. I love Nownownow in this race because of the name. I don’t have a past performances program in front of me, but he is trained by Biacone and has Leparoux aboard. Not much else to tell you about this race. Asmussen gets his first race at Keeneland with Garrett Gomez aboard the Kentucky colt Hargill.

Selections: 9-10-4-8

Race 2

I love the Argentine bred Don Tiger in this race with Mena aboard. Kirby is shipping this horse down from Hawthorne where he put in a poor performance at 1 1/16 mile. Last time Mena was aboard at Turfway Park and led the horse to a confident three length victory. Kirby has shipped this horse everywhere and he continues to win even at seven years old, and he loves any distance including that 2 1/16 miles journey at Mountaineer in December. I don’t really have a second selection as no one impresses me. So Don Tiger will be my single. I guess you cannot discount Guidry on One Eyed Joker though being the 6/5 M/L favorite.

Selections: 5-2-1-7

Race 3

This one is very difficult race to handicap here. There are a bunch of horses that have shown signs of excellence and even impressive signs on the polytrack. I am going to go with the long shot and Leparoux in Rendon Street. I tend to like horses that have shown they can run on the polytrack and Rendon Street’s impressive 8 ½ length victory at Turfway Park did it for me. It was only against maiden claimers at 30K, but this horse showed a very impressive four wide move to win with Leparoux aboard. The one thing that scares be a lot is the horse has done nothing at Keeneland in four starts. Speckert is shipping the horse from the Fairgrounds and I’m hoping for a nice price. My second selection is the M/L favorite at 3/1 Gold Attraction. He has never race on the polytrack but broke his maiden at Gulfstream at this same seven furlong distance. Gets the services of Castellano and should be coming on strong late. The other horse that scares me is the Rebecca Maker choice heading up from the Fairgrounds as well, Stars of the Sea. The four year old does get the services of Garrett Gomez but has shown nothing on the polytrack. Maker is upping him to seven furlongs from 5 ½ in Louisiana. I’m not a huge fan of Maker on the polytrack but maybe this horse will fire it up.

Selections: 3-4-2-8

Race 4

Just looking at the program you have Prado first mount on the turf, Gomez and Dale Romans, and Cornelio Velasquez and Mott. Tough to look past those three horses just because of the jockey’s and trainers. This is a 54K allowance non-winners other then maiden or claiming at 1 1/16 mile on the turf. The horse to beat is Gomez and on Yate’s Black Cat. In his last two races he has run against some great fields including losing to Showing Up by six lengths in the Colonial Turf Cup. The horse is dropping back to 1 1/16 mile from 1 ¼ mile back in July ’06. That is the one thing that scares me, the eight month layoff. Romans does do well with horses coming off layoffs with a 19% clip and with Gomez aboard I should not be scared. My second selection is a long shot in More Daylight. He gets one of my favorite riders aboard in Shaun Bridgmohan. This horse shows early speed and is one of few to do it in the race, the other two being Independent George and Smart Sherif. This horse came in sixth in his last race leading till the stretch run. He stays at the same distance and has shown some nice works leading up to this race. I just have a hunch about this one. Third selection is Prado on Independent George. If Smart Sherif doesn’t go out to the lead Prado could steal this race. As many of the horses in this race he is coming off a big layoff and his last race was at Del Mar. I think Prado could steal this one though.

Selections: 5-10-1-8

Race 5

No horse really comes out to me and screams “money in the bank.” So I am going with some price plays in this race. The favorite Time Squared is a well bred horse out of Fusaichi Pegasus and gets the services of Julian Leparoux. But I don’t understand why Biacone sent him in GIII Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. Why do trainers send out horses that have not broken their maiden into either allowance races or stakes races? Have your pony win then send him to bigger races! Time Squared finished dead last and I was glad. Well on to my picks. I’m stuck between Current Case and Include Us ridden by Rafael Bejarano and Edgar Prado respectively. I’m going to lead towards Current Case because he is not coming off a four month layoff. Both have raced at this distance and finished in respectable positions and both hace raced on the polytrack. Current Case came in eighth in his last on the turf at Gulfstream but was only three lengths off the winner. Include Us is shipping from Woodbine where he is familiar with the polytrack and is also going down to a 50K purse. Just a small interesting tidbit on this race for you, Fernando Jara and Kiaran McLaughlin reunite for the first time since Invasor won in Dubai. This will be Jara’s first race in the states since Dubai and he gets Samhoon, a 1.4 million dollar purchase in the 2005 September Keeneland sales. The horse has done nothing at Gulfstream twice and I don’t expect him to do anything today.

Selections: 6-12-2-10

Race 6

A nice eight horse field in the sixth, an 62K allowance, optional claimer, even though none will be claimed. There are some interesting options in this race and I will start with the ever so disappointing Vague. This filly was taken by Patrick Biacone from Doug O’Neil after a four races in the states after coming from Great Britain. She was ever so impressive a year ago in the UAE 1000 Guineas winning by five lengths. After that he went to Great Britain and did nothing on the turf for one race where he was then shipped to New York for a GI 1 ¼ route on the dirt where he went off at 8-1. He subsequently lost by 53 lengths but Desormeaux pulled him up at the half way mark. Since he has run three races on dirt and turf, has been a low price and high price, but has always done nothing. Biacone will try to right this filly by bringing here to six furlongs and pushing her to the polytrack. She did have a sharp :47 workout on March 30. The other intriguing option is the Argentine filly Solrana. Stanley Hough picked this filly up after going 3-0 in Argentina and winning one stakes race, all at five furlongs. Castellano gets the mount and Solrana does get Lasix added. She hasn’t run in four months but we will see how she does. To tell you the truth I have no clue where I am going in this race. If you are playing the Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 6 immediately hit the “All” option for this race unless you have some super inside information. Like Solrana is the next Invasor except sprinting. I’m going to go with Solrana at the right price. If she gets way overbet then I’ll bet jockeys or just numbers.

Selections: 5-4-1-2

Race 7

Four fillies in this race are coming off maiden wins and four are also coming off layoffs. The two fillies that are coming in off the best races are Awesome Ashley and Her Majesty out of the GI Frizette and GI Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies respectively. Awesome Ashley ran a decent Frizette in what could be one of the slowest ever at 1:40 for a mile. Her Majesty got caught up in traffic in the BC Juvenile Fillies and Leparoux held her back. She did go off at 8-1, had a terrible 10 post that day, and she is cutting back to seven furlongs so she will improve. I’m going to go with Frank Brothers in this race and Tessa Blue. Gets the outside post where she can flash some speed and hopefully get a clean trip. She decisively broke her maiden on February 18 at Gulfstream winning by eight lengths. Rene Douglas gets the mount and should steer this filly clear of traffic. The other horse that intrigues me is Mostbeautifulstorm and Edgar Prado. She broke her maiden last fall here at Keeneland and then went to Churchill for the GIII Pocahontas and got a terrible start and was never a factor. She has had one start this year and finished a far back fourth in an allowance at Gulfstream. I think she will rev it back up today on the polytrack.

Selections: 12-7-2-6

Race 8

The eighth has a very classy group of horses. The name in this race is Funny CideSpellbinder. I’m hoping he can get out to the lead and take this wire to wire but it is going to be tough as there is some other speed in this race to, and there is a lot of class. But what is most to like about this horse is he is giving five pounds! Should be nice in a race with this much talent. He has had some nice works at Keeneland including a 1:01 five furlong work on March 10. Seems prepared however new trainer Juan Ruvalcaba does not have the greatest layoff record. My second selection will be Robby Albarado on Student Council. He has won twice and one place in three races so far this year all with Albarado. In his last at Oaklawn Park in a GIII he was a game second to Magna Graduate over this distance. Seems ready for this race and if he gets a decent pace could he could come on from the back and steal it and nice odds. however he will be beaten. Mark it down. By who? Well, that is a great question. I am going to go with the speedy shipper

Selections: 8-9-3-4

Race 9 Central Bank Transylvania Stakes

Here is the first stakes race of the year at Keeneland, the Central Bank Transylvania GIII, a mile on the green stuff. This is a very diverse field with a second time starter, a shipper, three horses that have never run on the turf, and one horse that has never won. Let me tell Mr. Carl Potts, your colt is M/L 50-1 shot. He has never won. He has never been close to winning coming in third twice by three lengths and ten lengths. He has not even run on the turf ever. Why run him in this race? Plus you are about to run this three year old three times in 35 days, pretty much completely running him into the ground. Why do this? He will come in last when you could have run him in a nice MSW for about 25K and won gotten some money and satisfaction from him. Instead you are an idiot and run him in stakes. Come on, you are better then this. By the way the horses name is Lure My Daisy. It’s going to be very hard to beat the 8/5 M/L favorite Sedgefield. He is an always improving colt with Bejarano aboard. He is easily the most impressive colt on paper in this field so he will be my pick. I am going to look at the shipper from Great Britain too though. Codeword gets the services of Javier Castellano and is going a mile for the first time in his life. He gets Lasix today and may like the extra furlong and versus a semi-weak field I think he could really show something that is if he enjoys the states.

Selections: 9-3-7-4

Race 10

The last today is a 50K Maiden at 1 1/16 mile. I don’t have much to say about this race. There are a bunch of lightly raced horses. I am going to go with the favorite and Prado in this race, True Competitor. He has run four races in his life and has always finished in the money. He can run from behind or on the pace. Some nice sharp workouts prior to today and should be game for breakings his maiden this afternoon. My second selection is the Storming Maine. Douglas picks up this three year old colt again and races for the first time on the polytrack. Trainer David Cassen does well moving horses from the turf and Storming Maine shouldn’t disappoint. I expect an appearance in the money.

Selections: 7-3-8-12

Betting Plays:

Early Daily Double: R1- 9,10

R2-2,5 CHALK!!!

Total $2 ticket = $8

Race Two Pick Four: R2- 2,5

R3- 3,4

R4- 5,10,1

R5- 6,12,2

Total $1 Ticket = $36

Race Four Pick Three: R4- 5

R5- 6,12,2

R6- All

Total $1 Ticket = $24

Race Five Pick Six: R5- 6,12,2

R6- 5,4 (Not many people can afford the all button on a Pick Six)

R7- 12,7,2

R8- 8,9,3

R9- 9

R10- 7,3

Total $1 Ticket = $108 (I know that is tough to afford itself)

Race Seven Pick Four: R7- 12,7,2,6

R8- 8,9,3

R9- 9

R10- 7,3,8,12

Total $1 Ticket = $48

Best Bet: Race 2- Don Tiger (5)

Price Play: Race 3- Rendon Street (3)

I will throw some trifecta wheels and some exactors out live during the races. I will probably do a little live bloggin around the 5th or 6th race, we will see. Good luck and may the wire be with you.

Friday Morning Coffee & Donuts

2007-04-06T08:32:00.000-05:00

Couple things I learned this morning when waking up and what is on tap for a chilly Friday.

Billy Gillespie is heading to Kentucky according to ESPN.com's Pat Forde. In my mind this is a great move for both Gillespie and Kentucky. No one wants to coach basketball in A&M because no one cares about basketball. If you think football is big in Gator land it's four times as big in College Station, TX. For Kentucky it is a great move because Gillespie knows how to recruit and coach. I would not be surprised to see Kentucky in a Final Four soon and a Sweet 16 next year. Press conference to be held at 12:45 pm ET today and a pep rally 30 minutes before hand. Are they basketball crazy in Lexington or what.
Tiger tees off at 10:34 am ET. I guess we won't see him on USA which sucks. We are stuck with the hacks of the PGA Tour this afternoon.
More great news in Lexington, Ky today, Keeneland opens up it's fall meet today at 1:15 ET. I'll be posting by selections for all races by 11:00 and I got some nice price plays for you. Here are the equibase entries.
David Carr is heading to Carolina to back up Delhomme. Who cares?
As you probably all know by now one of the most exciting NBA player Gilbert Arenas will be out 2-3 months and no playoffs. This sucks. The playoffs won't be nearly as good without Zero.

That is all for now. I will be back with Keeneland selections and more on Gillespie to Kentucky later. Peace kids.

College Basketball Coaching Merry Go Round & Other Bits

2007-04-05T19:46:00.000-05:00

Couple interesting pieces of information came out of the college basketball world the Thursday after the national championship.

Huggy Bear has decided to jump ship after one solid season at Kansas State and head to the opening at West Virginia. Does anyone not think this is a completely lateral move? They both have strong fan bases, probably equal talent at this point. Yes, the Mountaineers have been more successful recently due to coaching master John Beilein but still why go to WVU?
Donovan is staying at Florida. Not really ground breaking news but a great play by Donovan.
In the same interview Donovan also pretty much said the four starting juniors on this years Gator squad are going to the draft and will probably hire agents. They all should, yes even Taureen Green. Green was a key cog to that team I'd say the number one part but many would argrue with me. He probably will be a first round pick and he will be a good bench option at point guard in the NBA. The other three are lottery picks and I really want to see where Humphrey and Richards might go.
Stud frosh from Washington, Spencer Hawes, is declaring for the draft without hiring an agent. I don't think he will come back and shouldn't. This kid is skilled in the post and already has an NBA body. He would probably be a lottery pick and it really seems like Romar is on the downhill slide at Washington. He can turn it around though fast.
Another expected move was Marcus Williams from Arizona declaring for the draft. He did not look great at Arizona, but he has the body and athleticism to make it in the NBA if he puts his mind to it. If not he could become another Eddie Robinson. And yes he hired an agent.

Tiger Messes Around as Youngsters Take the Lead

2007-04-05T18:45:00.000-05:00

Tiger started off the day playing solid golf making strong par putts. Then he tried to turn it on down the back nine and was at a good -1 heading to the 17th. Then after two wayward drives and one frustrating and missed 10 footer he dropped to +1 and gave a classic post round interview with USA. I can't tell you it verbatim, but I will sure post a YouTube link when it comes up. It was hilarious when he was asked what is the difference in the back nine this year and ten years ago when you won. He shoots back I would have shot a 30 ten years ago. Classic Tiger. He'll come back tomorrow and as Faldo said come around Amen Corner and be in the lead. No surprises.

Justin Rose and Brett Wettrich are both -3 and in the lead. Rose was easily the most impressive golfer of the day having zero bogeys and only 20 putts. If he continues putting like this, which is doubtful, he easily could go wire to wire on the field.

The course looks the same this year but seems to be playing a bit more difficult. It may be a little harder and since it is suppose to be colder this year, temperatures in the high 50's over the weekend, I expect the winner to be around -3. We will see though Faldo said it may be over par.

Well coverage starts at 4:00 PM ET tomorrow. And I'll be sure to be watching.

Oh and by the way "Three Putt" Phil finished +4 and T-44. I expect him to make the cut tomorrow and probably shoot a good round of about -3. He had 30 putts today and will need to improve on that obviously.

Thursday Lock of the Day

2007-04-05T14:23:00.000-05:00

Last night was a rough one as I took what most people would say is a terrible play in the under in a Nuggets home game. Well tonight I won't make the same mistake again. My lock tonight is the over of 206 in Suns @ Spurs. Both teams had yesterday off and versus Seattle on Tuesday the Spurs put up 110. The Suns play as much defense as the Sonics so I expect the Spurs to put up at least 105. And the last two times the Suns have played in San Antonio they have put up 100+. So those are perfect ingredients for a 110-104 victory for the Spurs tonight. I love the over in the Spurs vs Suns.

Lock Record: 0-1

Live Dice K & Tiger Update

2007-04-05T14:13:00.000-05:00

Wow does he look good. He has pitched three innings and had some trouble in the first with a hit and a walk. But has now pitched two perfect innings in a row. His line is 3 IP, 2 K's, 0 ER, 1 BB. Pretty damn good even if it is against a weak KC Royals team. And hitters just look confused up there against him. We will see how long he can go.

As for the best in the world. He is even through five holes with five pars. Playing a very solid round so far compared to some other big names like "Three Putt" Phil and "I'm Done With Golf" Ernie. They look bad, real bad. Tiger is just playing out the course right now as he waits for Friday and Saturday to make his major move. And by the way he is wearing a pink golf shirt with black Nike vest and black Nike hat. He looks sharp despite the pink.

LOST Review

2007-04-05T14:03:00.000-05:00

For all you fellow Losties out there here is my review of the episode last night "Left Behind".

I thought it was a good episode. I gave it a 7.4/10. The monster scene was decent but Kate and Juliet together in mud and wrestling was great. And damn did Juliet hand it to Kate when she said Jack told you not to comeback because he saw you and Sawyer getting it on in the cage. Next week will be interesting when Kate meets Sawyer with Jack around. I really wouldn't mind if Jack tried to fight Sawyer and Sawyer absolutely bruised him up.

Also, back next week is one of the best parts of Lost, Sayhid and interrogation. Sayhid is going to question the hell out of Juliet and may have to even resort to torture like he did with Benry. Now I don't think he will let Juliet get away like he let Benry get away. Even though it wasn't really his fault he put in on himself. I cannot wait for the true Sayhid to come out next week.

We need more Benry next week and Locke. If they both don't appear in an episode it could be a major disappoint. No Benry this week was tough to swallow.

By the way I actually didn't mind the Hurley and Sawyer stuff. Usually I think that stuff is horse crap, but for some reason I was humored this week by it. And damn did Sun give Sawyer the look of death this week.

The great Kate for all of you too droll over this cold afternoon.

Dice K Mania Starts at 2:10

2007-04-05T09:51:00.000-05:00

Dice K Mania starts today in of all places Kansas City. Yes the lower deck is not even sold out for the game yet. The weather will not be pleasant at all either. The cold spell that is coming across the Midwest brings a high of 43 and bright sun to Kauffman Stadium. My predictions on Dice K this year are as follows. I believe he will do well, not Cy Young worthy but well. Something around a 4.00 ERA and about 14 wins. Nothing jump out of your seat holy crap good but respectable in the AL East.

I actually know two people taking the two hour trip from Columbia, MO to see Dice K in action and maybe get the chance to see a star born. I’ll get reports from them and tell you what they thought about the Japanese fans and Dice K in person tonight or tomorrow.

Thursday Morning Coffee & Bagels

2007-04-05T07:51:00.000-05:00

Morning Bits & Bites

Bonds nailed HR #735 last night yet the Giants lost 5-3 to the Padres. I gave you that Padres play, did you take it?
Masters started at 8:00 AM ET. TV coverage starts at 4:00 PM ET on USA. Notable starting tee time: Phil tees off at 10:56 AM ET and Tiger tees off at 1:52 PM ET.
USA Today reports the most populated cities in America: 1. New York 2. Los Angeles, 3. Chicago, 4. Dallas-Fort Worth, 5. Philadelphia
30 Rock on NBC got renewed for 2007-08. Nice to hear. It's a good show with Tina Fey and Alec Baldwin has won a Golden Globe for it. New episode tonight.
A new The Office is on tonight. And I guess you cannot miss the first two minutes. I'm not going to lie I am kind of pumped.
LOST was pretty good last night and set up a great episode next week. I will review the whole episode later in morning.
Five afternoon baseball games. My computer will be tuned into see if the Indians can sweep the Sox.
I noticed my lock of the day yesterday was anything but a lock. Instead of one team playing defense, neither team played defense. The fact Denver let the Kings back in the game like they do in every game means they will do nothing in the playoffs. And they may move up to the sixth seed so we can see an awesome Lakers vs Suns series again.
If anyone wants a good early morning laugh. Look at the front page picture on Yahoo! Sports. It is priceless.

Good morning and stay awake.

Lock Of the Night

2007-04-04T19:11:00.000-05:00

Here is my NBA lock of the night:

The under of 215 in Sacramento Kings @ Denver Nuggets on ESPN at 10:05 PM ET. Both teams of hard fought games on Tuesday night and both teams are traveling to Denver. the Kings lost by four to Dallas and the Nuggets won by six versus Kobe. The total has gone under in eight of these teams last ten head-to-head meetings. 215 points is a lot for two teams coming off air trips even if one team plays no defense at all. I love the under of 215 at the Pepsi Center.

If you would rather give a try at baseball take Chris Young and the Padres over Matt Cain and the Giants. Young is simple a better pitcher in a pitchers park in the Bay Area. this won't count for in my locks record, but I love this play in MLB.

Masters Preview

2007-04-04T17:50:00.000-05:00

Who other to start with then Tiger Woods? Is there any question he is going to win this? No. He is 3/2 at most betting sites and it’d be tough to bet against him. Think you are making 1.5 times your money. That is highway robbery with Tiger at the Masters. And the fact that the only other golfer playing well at Augusta as of late is Phil “Blow-up” Mickelson, I’m thinking Tiger could route this field by five plus strokes. And it's the tenth anniversary of his first Masters route. I expect greatness.

Back to Mr. Blow-Up himself. Now he may not blow-up this year I see nothing from him. Whenever Tiger is at his best Phil is no where to be found. I would like to see a Phil vs. Tiger Easter Sunday Showdown though, but not because I work with CBS or anything. And no I do not rob banks in Augusta either like some CBS workers. This would be a killer match up. I can just imagine Sunday the 8^th right now. Couch + HD + Tiger + Flustered Phil + Easter = Immaculate Sunday.

Some of my sleepers who also appear on my Top Ten List on the side of the blog are Aaron Bads, Tim Clark, and Sergio Garcia. Aaron Baddley has performed very well this year and SI Golf Plus picked him as a strong contender for this year Masters. I decided to jump on the bandwagon and join them. Sergio may be at his best in some time this year and may have all those hitches out of his set up in time for Thursday. If he does I expect a strong top ten performance from someone who has never quite performed to lofty expectations. And Tim Clark is the perfect grinder for this tough Augusta course. He may just sit -2 all week and sneak into the top ten.

That is my small, short preview. I really expect nothing less then a Tiger route this week. And this will all lead up to yet another chance at another Tiger Slam if he wins the US Open. Greatest golfer in history, check. Greatest athlete ever, he’s coming close.

Hello Blogging Nations

2007-04-04T14:56:00.000-05:00

First post = Crappy post.

Or so I read and hear. So I will follow suit and make this terrible.

Lets start off with some of my goals for you readers when you peer over this blog.

1. You laugh
2. You win money if you follow my picks
3. You are informed (tell me that does not sound journalistic)

Simple goals, right? I'm just setting the bar low so we can all be a happy family.

This is what I plan on bringing you from around sports world.

1. Interesting previews, review, analysis from all over the sports world. The big events will be covered right here. It's spring time so that means big events from different sports are coming up including the Masters and Kentucky Derby. I'll be previewing those and getting you ready for the journey of the NBA Playoffs. And let me tell you, I could not be less excited, so maybe I won't even blog about it until the conference finals.

2. I'll post my picks of the day, Vegas style. I'll probably have a lock or something each day in one of those major sports you can bet on. I'll keep a record, not like those stupid radio commercials where the so called "gurus" never seem to miss a MNF game, complete morons.

3. I know a lot of people don't think it is a sport or whatever but I will also bring horse racing fans selections on premier races and special racing days. That will start on Friday morning with the opening of Keeneland's spring meet, and I will break down the races with my selections that may do nothing.

4. I'll post links to must read blogs, articles, etc. around the web. There are a lot of interesting people out there that write on a variety of things. I will show you to all those great sites.

That is really all I can give you right now. Since this is a single man operation you can probably expect something like 2-4 posts each weekday and maybe one or two on the weekend depending on what is going on and the weather.

If you girls and guys want to inform me on anything, yell at me, SPAM me, or bring praise you can always fire away at terptime13@gmail.com. I will respond, don't worry.

Thanks for reading and expect the best.